Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick 06/11/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-06-11

Jean Segura and the Philadelphia Phillies are playing host to the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. Fox Sports Arizona will showcase this NL matchup and the game is slated to get going at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Philadelphia (-135) is favored over Arizona (+125) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs. Odds for playing the game’s total stand at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. This game currently has a runline of Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170) and Phillies -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies are 37-29 straight up (SU) and 34-31 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 4.8 units for moneyline bettors and 2.1 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Diamondbacks have gone 35-32 SU this year and are 40-26 against the spread. They’ve accumulated 4.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.6 units ATS. Arizona’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Philadelphia games have a 29-34-2 over/under record so far in 2019. The Diamondbacks have an over/under record of 31-32-3.

Right-hander Jon Duplantier is projected to start for the visiting D-backs. Duplantier is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 23 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Phillies are going with righty Jake Arrieta (5-5, 4.29 ERA), who has 65 punchouts and 32 walks to his credit as well as a 1.43 WHIP. Arrieta made two starts against the Diamondbacks in 2018, compiling a 1-0 record with a 0.60 ERA and six strikeouts.

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 4.6 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 4.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.27 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 4.9 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .247/.309/.476 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Jean Segura and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies’ hitters this year. Segura is slashing .291/.339/.463 with six home runs, 27 RBIs and 41 runs scored, while Hernandez is hitting .270 with six homers, 29 RBIs and 29 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Arizona’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 3.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.97 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.21, along with a WHIP of 1.26.

Diamondbacks hitters have slashed .258/.325/.459 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game this year, including 5.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 7.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (5-0 SU).

Arizona’s offense has been powered by Eduardo Escobar and Ketel Marte, who have already combined to drive in 100 runs. Escobar is hitting .299/.356/.594 with 17 home runs, 54 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Marte (.274/.325/.526) is up to 16 homers, 46 RBIs and 41 runs scored.

The Diamondbacks have gained 2.8 units and are 26-15 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 24 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 12.1 units and are 26-22 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 20 of those games, as opposed to 26 that’ve cashed the under.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Diamondbacks, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

Arizona has logged 23 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Philadelphia has 19 XBH over its last five.

The Diamondbacks have hit 21 home runs in their last 10 games, including 15 over their last five.

The Diamondbacks have a team OPS of .784 this season and an OPS of .734 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS sits at .745 overall and .735 versus righties.

Philadelphia has recorded 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.6 over its last five.

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2019 MLB Betting Guide

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