Corbin Burnes will get the start for the Brewers (92-70, 49-32 home) as they host the Diamondbacks (84-78, 41-40 away) at American Family Field. The Diamondbacks will give the starting nod to Brandon Pfaadt. Check out my prediction for game one of this National League matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +156

This game will be played at American Family Field at 7:08 ET on Tuesday, October 3rd.

WHY BET THE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:

  • Over their last five games on the road, Arizona has a straight-up record of 3-2.
  • In their last ten games as the underdog, the Diamondbacks have put together a record of 7-3.
  • In Brandon Pfaadt’s five most recent starts, the Diamondbacks are 2-1.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS TRYING TO CLOSE GAP IN NL WEST

Leading up to today’s game, the Diamondbacks are 2nd in the NL West on a record of 84-78. Overall, they have played in 51 different series, going 28-20-3. When playing above .500 teams, the Diamondbacks are 84-78, and currently hold win percentages of 53.1% at home and 50.6% on the road.

Brandon Pfaadt is making his 20th appearance of the season, boasting a record of 3-9. His ERA stands at 5.72, with opposing teams hitting .279 against him. On the road, he is 1-4 with an ERA of 5.78, while at home he has gone 2-5 with a 7.99 ERA. Overall, teams have a slugging percentage of .528 against him this season.

The Diamondbacks earned a victory the last time Brandon Pfaadt was on the mound, defeating the White Sox 3-0. He pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing five hits and no earned runs, while adding a win to his record.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks’ has gone deep 166 times, placing them 20th in the league. Over Arizona’s previous five games, they are 21st in runs scored, with their season average of 4.6 runs per game putting them 14th in the league. The Diamondbacks’ overall team batting average stands at .250 along with an OBP of .322.

Corbin Carroll has been a consistent offensive force for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, boasting a .285 batting average and .506 slugging percentage. During the team’s last ten games, he has been particularly impressive, leading the D-Backs in hits while batting .260.

WILL THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

So far this season, Milwaukee has played in 50 series, going 29-19-2. Their current record of 92-70 is good for first place in the NL Central. On the road, the Brewers have gone 43-38 compared to 49-32 at home.

Burnes has been a force to be reckoned with this season, taking the mound 32 times and boasting a 10-8 record. He’s currently riding a two-game streak of not allowing a home run, and his slugging percentage allowed is an impressive .317. The righty has also struck out 200 batters thus far, while his WHIP stands at 1.07.

Burnes’ last outing saw him surrender five hits over four innings of work, yet he still managed to keep the Cardinals off the scoreboard, as the Brewers emerged victorious with a 3-0 scoreline. The right-hander was not credited with a decision, but his performance was key in Milwaukee’s win.

Having gone deep 9 times in their last ten games, the Brewers are 10th in that span. At 4.5 runs per game, Milwaukee is 16th in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .240 while hitting a total of 165 home runs (21st).

William Contreras has been a major contributor to the Milwaukee Brewers’ offensive success this season, boasting a .291 batting average and .459 slugging percentage. In the team’s last ten games, Contreras has been especially impressive, leading the Brewers in hits and batting an impressive .402.