The last of four Dash 4 Cash events is this week’s Allied Steel Buildings 200 at Dover International Speedway, so that means one more chance for the points drivers to snag an Xfinity Series win without interference from Cup Series guys or road course ringers. After this, the Xfinity Series will be off the next two weeks, with no race in Kansas and no race during the NASCAR All-Star Weekend.
This is the 10th race of the Xfinity Series season and we’ll be breaking it down in search of the best values on the board. Odds can be seen on the right-hand side for desktop viewers and below the comment box for mobile viewers.
Three Dash 4 Cash races, three different winners. Tyler Reddick, who has had some excellent runs at plate tracks in his career, took down the title and got some extra points for Stage 1 last week at Talladega. Reddick ran his streak to six straight top-five finishes with that win. He won Stage 2 at Las Vegas and was also fifth at Atlanta, so he’s been on some kind or run this season. He has 413 points to pace the field.
Christopher Bell won the first of three Alsco 300 Xfinity Series races a few weeks back at Bristol. The others are the Alsco 300 in Charlotte on May 25 and the Alsco 300 in Kentucky on July 12. Bell is one of two drivers with two wins, but is 32 points off of Reddick’s pace in the standings.
The other Dash 4 Cash winner is Cole Custer, who won the ToyotaCare 250 a few weeks ago at Richmond. Custer sits fourth in points after finishing 32nd last week at Talladega. He is the other driver with two wins. He’s one point behind Austin Cindric. The only other points driver with a win is Michael Annett, who won the NASCAR Racing Experience 300 to open the season.
The pressure is on for guys like Cindric, Justin Allgaier, John Hunter Nemechek, and Chase Briscoe to get one of these wins. All of those guys should be safe on points in terms of the playoffs, but still. Allgaier will likely win a road course race down the line, but the others should take advantage of this chance.
The Monster Mile at Dover is typically one of the fastest mile tracks on the circuit. This was a Dash 4 Cash race last year and Allgaier got the win. Elliott Sadler was second, with Daniel Hemric third, Bell fourth, and Reddick fifth. Sadler ran at Richmond, but won’t run again until the regular season finale in Las Vegas. Hemric is running Cup Series full-time.
Cup guys finished 1-2-3 in 2017. This is not a track that breeds consistency. As discussed in the preview for the Gander RV 400, Cup Series guys have finishes all over the board at Dover. It is a really tough track, with some very competitive racing and some good speeds. That can lead to wrecks and mechanical failures.
Bell won the fall playoff race last year. Hemric won the second stage, but, as mentioned, he’s not running Xfinity Series this year. Allgaier was third, with Ryan Preece fourth and Spencer Gallagher fifth in his best finish after his win at Talladega.
Bell is the overwhelming favorite at +170. Reddick and Custer at +450. Allgaier is +540 and the best bet on the board. Everybody else is +1650 or higher. It’s hard to take shots on Xfinity Series guys when the Cup crowd is on hand, but the top drivers at this level really do get priced out of value in these Dash 4 Cash races. I’m actually looking forward to seeing the Cup guys back in the fray, just so we can hopefully get some value on these up-and-comers.
That being said, the long shots do have some value. Guys like Chase Briscoe and John Hunter Nemechek have run well enough to be interesting at +2750 or +3300. It’s not like you have to break the bank on these guys. A half-unit returning that type of profit is not a fruitless endeavor when you have a race that could be very wide-open and may end up with a late wreck or something to that effect.
Allgaier still looks like the top option to me, given how he’s been the most consistent guy here, but throwing a few long shot darts on guys like Brandon Jones, Briscoe, and Nemechek at balloon prices is not a bad idea.