The Crimson Tide and Rebels are set to face off at 9:00 ET on ESPN2. The Rebels will host the game at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss in Oxford, MS. Alabama is favored by -6 in this Southeastern conference matchup the against Ole Miss. The over/under for the game is set at 166 points.


The Pick: Ole Miss Rebels +6

This game will be played at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss at 9:00 ET on Wednesday, February 28th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Rebels.
  • Not only will Ole Miss pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +6.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 166 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Can the Crimson Tide Pull Off a Road Win?

Alabama is coming off a 117-95 loss to Kentucky, and they are now 19-8 on the season. They have a 10-3 record in Southeastern Conference play, and their average scoring margin on the road is -0.2 points per game. For the season, they have been favored in 19 games, going 17-2 in those contests.

On the road this year, the Crimson Tide are 6-7, and their record over their last 10 road games is 5-5. They have won two of their last five games on the road, and they are 1-2 in their last three.

Alabama has an ATS record of 16-10 this season and they are 14-5 vs. the spread when favored. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Crimson Tide have gone 8-2 vs. the spread.

Alabama’s over/under record for the season is 19-7 and the average scoring total in their games is 169.2 points. Today’s over/under line of 166 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (160.8) and there have been 12 games with less points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 192 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 8-2.

Alabama’s offense had a good outing, putting up 95 points against Kentucky. They achieved a 56.7% field goal percentage and went 21/27 from the free-throw line. Rylan Griffen led the scoring for the Crimson Tide, contributing 21 points. Additionally, Mark Sears chipped in with 20 points.

At present, the Crimson Tide’s defense is nationally ranked 307th, allowing 78.9 points per game. So far, the Alabama defense is giving up an average of 10.4 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.1 times per game (612nd).

Will the Rebels Make it Happen at Home?

Despite being the underdog, Ole Miss has been excellent at home this season, going 15-2 with an average scoring margin of +8.4 points per game. Over their last 10 games at home, the Rebels are 8-2.

Overall, Ole Miss is 19-8 this season, including a 6-8 record in Southeastern Conference games. They have lost two straight games, including their most recent game against South Carolina by a score of 72-59.

As the underdog, Ole Miss has gone just 4-6 against the spread this season and they’ve gone 1-2 ATS in their last three games as the underdog. Their overall ATS record sits at 13-14, but they are just 9-8 ATS at home this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Rebels have gone 4-6 vs. the spread.

So far this season, the over/under record for Ole Miss is 15-12 and today’s line of 166 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (142.6). In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 146 points.

Compared to their season average of 75.1 points per game, Ole Miss struggled in their previous game. Against South Carolina, the Rebels scored 59 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 33.3%. On the offensive front, the Rebels have a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, ranking 199th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 50th in terms of percentage and 196th in three-pointers made.

Ole Miss’ defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 72.2 points per game. In today’s game vs. Alabama, the Ole Miss defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Ole Miss made 20 free-throws vs. the Rebels.