Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/9/24
Alabama comes into this one on the road vs. LSU with a -3 point spread in their favor. The game is set for 7:30 ET from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge and will be broadcast on ABC. The over/under line is at 58.5 points, and both teams are 6-2 on the season. Alabama is -146 on the money line, with LSU at +122 as the home underdog.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE VS LSU TIGERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: LSU Tigers +3
This game will be played at Tiger Stadium (LA) at 7:30 ET on Saturday, November 9th.
WHY BET THE LSU TIGERS:
- We have the Alabama Crimson Tide winning this one by a score of 31 to 30
- Even though we like the Alabama Crimson Tide to win, our ATS pick is to take the LSU Tigers at +3
- Look for this game to go over the line of 58.5 points
Will The Alabama Crimson Tide Pick Up A Win On The Road?
Alabama heads into Week 11 against LSU with a 6-2 record, ranked 3rd in our power rankings. They are 5-0 at home but 1-2 on the road this season. Alabama has a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 14.3% chance of winning the Southeastern, according to projections. They have a 55% chance of making the playoff, which ranks 11th in the country.
Alabama’s ATS record is 4-4, with a +19 average scoring margin. They are 3-2 against the spread at home and 1-2 on the road. The Crimson Tide have been favored in seven of their eight games, going 3-4 ATS as the favorite.
The over/under line for this week is 58.5 points. Alabama’s games have averaged 56.2 points, with an average line of 54.2 points. Their over/under record is 5-3, with six games having lower lines than this week’s total.
Alabama’s offense is averaging 37.6 points per game, placing them 15th in the nation as they head into week 11. They are ranked 11th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Jalen Milroe has thrown for 1,942 yards, completing 67.6% of his passes. He has 13 touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 107.
Alabama ranks 56th in rushing, averaging 180.4 yards per game. Jam Miller leads the ground attack with 450 yards, seven touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Ryan Williams has 702 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 35 catches.
Alabama’s defense is coming off a dominant performance, shutting out Missouri in a 34-0 win. They allowed just 239 total yards, including 72 passing yards, and forced three interceptions.
On the season, Alabama ranks 15th nationally, giving up 18.6 points per game. They’ve allowed 193.2 passing yards per game and 146.4 rushing yards per contest.
Will The LSU Tigers Win At Home Over The Alabama Crimson Tide?
LSU enters Week 11 against Alabama with a 6-2 record and is ranked 12th in our power rankings. The Tigers are a lock for bowl eligibility but have just a 6.7% chance of winning the SEC. However, they hold a 20.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff, which ranks 15th nationally.
LSU is 2-0 at home this season and 2-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in five of their eight games, going 4-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +10 points, but they are 2-4 against the spread.
The over/under line for this week’s game is 58.5 points. LSU’s average over/under line this season is 58.9 points, and they have a 2-4 record against the over/under, with their games averaging 55.5 points per contest.
LSU’s offense is ranked 9th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11. They are also 30th in scoring, averaging 32.8 points per game. Their passing game is their main strength, ranking 7th in the nation with 333.2 yards per game. They are 10th in passing completions, averaging 26.8 per game, and 12th in attempts.
Garrett Nussmeier leads the Tigers with 2,631 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 95 and a completion percentage of 62.6%. On third downs, LSU converts 49.1% of their attempts. Kyren Lacy has 618 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. LSU’s run game is less effective, averaging 116.6 yards per game.
LSU’s defense has allowed an average of 22.8 points per game this season, ranking 29th nationally. In their recent game against Texas A&M, they gave up 38 points, allowing 351 total yards, including 145 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 206 passing yards. They also forced one interception in the game.
Opponents have averaged 135.8 rushing yards per game on 32.4 attempts against LSU, while quarterbacks have posted a 61.9% completion rate and averaged 229.6 passing yards per game, ranking LSU 105th in the nation in passing yards allowed.