Air Force vs. New Mexico College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


In a battle featuring two teams that like to run the football, Head Coach Troy Calhoun and the Air Force Falcons (+21.5) are gearing up to take on their MWC counterpart New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. This afternoon game starts at 2:00 p.m. ET and ATSN is in line to broadcast the action.

Air Force at New Mexico Betting Odds 11/9/2019

Air Force is the heavy road favorite and is currently giving up 21.5 points to New Mexico. If the Falcons fall behind early it’ll create a worthy in-game betting opportunity. The over/under is set at 58.5 points.

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The Falcons are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 2-7 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play. The Falcons have gained 3.8 units so far and are 5-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-4.

The Lobos have lost 4.0 units this season. They’re 3-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-5.

New Mexico enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while Air Force has lost zero in a row. The Falcons continue to ride high after a 17-13 win over Army West Point last week. Donald Hammond III completed only one-of-6 passes for 19 yards and one interception. Kadin Remsberg (54 yards on 12 rush attempts) and Joshua Stoner (59 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Geraud Sanders (one receptions, 19 yards) and Remsberg (one catch, -3 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

New Mexico just lost 21-10 to Nevada. The team’s defensive secondary let the Wolf Pack air it out for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Romeo Doubs torched the defense, putting up 167 yards on 11 catches for Nevada. For New Mexico, Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti completed 19-of-36 passes for 237 yards. Ahmari Davis (80 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack as Marcus Williams (six receptions, 74 yards) and Emmanuel Logan-Greene (four catches, 54 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Air Force has run the ball on 86.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 57.1 percent. The Falcons have produced 323 rush yards per game (including 353 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 33 scores on the ground this year. The Lobos are averaging 200 rushing yards per contest (196 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.

Based on the numbers this season, it seems like the Falcons ought to hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has logged 5.4 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.4 YPC to opponents. The Lobos have tallied 5.0 yards per carry and given up 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Falcons have averaged 108 yards in the air overall (104 per game versus conference opposition) and have six passing scores so far. The Lobos have put up 219 pass yards per outing (196.6 in the MWC) and have nine total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Air Force seems to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 97 rush yards and 217 pass yards per game. New Mexico has allowed 149.7 rushing yards per game and 340.4 to opponents in the air. The Falcons are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.30 to opponents, while the Lobos have allowed an ugly 9.2 ANY/A.

Hammond III has amassed 696 pass yards this season. He’s completed 32-of-67 attempts with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Hammond III has an 8.60 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is -1.50 over the past two outings.

Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti has produced 957 yards, five TDs and four INTs for New Mexico. His ANY/A stands at 6.66 for the year and 5.56 over his last two outings.

When these two teams met a year ago, Air Force earned the win 42-24.

Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos Betting Prediction

SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – New Mexico, O/U – Over


Team Betting Trends

The Falcons offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Lobos have accounted for nine such plays.

The Air Force defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Mexico has given up 17 such plays.

The Air Force offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New Mexico has created 16 such runs.

The Falcons defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Lobos have given up 14 such runs.

The New Mexico defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 20 times this year. Air Force has registered just 14 sacks.

Air Force has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its past three games and 5.8 over its last two.

New Mexico has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.3 over its last two.

Over its last three matches, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Air Force’s last game was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 17-13 victory over Army West Point.

Over its last three games, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for New Mexico’s previous outing was set at 58. The under cashed in the 21-10 loss to Nevada.

New Mexico has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a three-point victory over New Mexico State on September 21st accounting for its only win over that stretch.

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