Last Updated: 2018-05-25
We return to the Arena Football League after sitting out a few weeks when Nick Davila was injured. Normally it wouldn’t make much difference, but a quarterback injury in a four-team league is going to affect half the games each week, so decided a little break was for the best until we got a better indication of what Warren Smith would do as the Valor quarterback.
Philadelphia at Baltimore: The Brigade are favored by 5 over the defending AFL champions and the totao on this one is 95, as the Soul have labored offensively the past two weeks, beginning with their loss at Baltimore by an unheard of 31-21 final score, which sounds like a halftime score in the Arena Football League. The Soul showed a bit of a hangover from that effort, with last week’s home loss to Albany by a 41-36 final, which was the teams’s first home loss since 2016. The Soul were favored by 6 two weeks ago and there’s been a huge swing in the spread, which might be a bit of over-compensation by oddsmakers in this spot. The total in that game was 107.5, so we’ve also seen a 12.5-point drop in the over/under. Philadelphia won the first game between the two teams 54-49. Dan Radabaugh has thrown a few key interceptions the past two games, but he’s too good of a quarterback to continue to do that and have to take the Soul as underdogs. Would lean to the over, but will most likely stay away, as I have this one 45-44 for the Brigade.
Washington at Albany: The Empire is favored by 13.5 and the total on this one is 90 in a game I made 55-39 for Albany. Washington’s defense has let them down at times this season, although they have played a little better as of late, as the Valor looks for their first victory of the season, something they almost pulled off last week against Baltimore, falling 42-41 as 15-point underdogs in a definite letdown spot for Baltimore. Albany won the first meeting between the two 47-23, then followed that up with a 53-42 victory at Washington, as the Empire have covered both games and the under is 1-0-1. Those games saw totals of 96.5 and 95, so there’s been a slight compensation in this week’s total, although not to the extent we saw in the Philadelphia game. Smith played a decent game last time and with a few weeks under his belt should continue to show improvement, but hard to trust the Valor defense, so will take the over 90 in this one.
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