Last Updated: 2017-11-10
With the season more than halfway through, the point spreads on the game are getting more and more accurate. Because of this, it is more important than ever to read up on all of the quick hits and betting bits before making your bets for the weekend.
New York Jets
The Jets are in a rare spot this week because they are getting public support although they are playing out of conference and on the road. This may have something to do with the fact that the Bucs will be without a starting quarterback and a starting wide receiver or it could have more to do with the fact that the Jets are 6-2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season which is the 2nd most profitable team this season.
The Dolphins take on the Carolina Panthers and the Dolphins have had an ugly season up to this point. They are still a remarkable 4-4 straight up on the season and 3-5 against the number which is impressive with how poorly that they have played. It may not get any easier under the Monday night football lights as the Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in the last seven games on prime time on Monday night.
New England Patriots
The Patriots are off a bye week and now they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Sunday night football. Many public football betting fans believe that the Patriots will have no problem winning this game as over 80 percent of the bets are coming in on the Patriots which is the most popular bet of the week. Tom Brady only has a losing record against one team in the NFL and that team is the Broncos. Brady is just 7-9 straight up against the Broncos.
The Bills are home underdogs this week against the New Orleans Saints. The Bills tend to play better defensive football when they are underdogs. The under has cashed in 12 of the last 21 games that the Bills have been listed as an underdog which includes a 75 percent return this year with the under cashing in the last three out of four games that the Bills have been underdogs. Also don’t forget the weather when betting on this game as record low temps are expected this weekend on the east coast.
The Titans will take on another AFC North team this week when they go up against the Bengals. They play much better at home where they have covered in six of the last eight home games. They have also improved against teams with a losing record. They are 4-0 this season ATS when playing against a team with a losing record which is a vast improvement from the 15-33-3 ATS record they have in the last 51 games against teams with a losing record. This is the kind of game that the Titans should win if they want to make the playoffs.
If the Colts want to be in the game against the Steelers they will have to get TY Hilton involved in the passing game. Hilton is going up against one of the best pass defenses in the league, but Hilton plays much better in a domed stadium. Hilton averages a full 20 yards more per game when he can leverage his speed on the inside temperature control turf. The Colts may only have three wins on the season but they are above .500 at 5-4 ATS on the season.
The Texans play the Rams this week and the public is buying against the Texas. The Rams have more than 70 percent of the bets on this game. When a team gets more than 70 percent of the bets and they are favored by more than 7 points they cover just 45 percent of the time are 199-238-8 against the spread. This could make the Texans a team to consider this week at the betting window.
The Jaguars have been wining and covering the spread in a big way this season. They cover the spread by an average of 11 points per game which is second best in the NFL and the best record in the AFC. They do it by running the ball as they lead the league with a 53 percent rush rate. This week they go up against the Chargers who are ranked 26th against the run in defense adjusted value over average. The Jaguars expect Leonard Fournette back in the lineup for this game.
Many people are considering the Steelers the favorites to go to the Super Bowl out of the AFC since they have an easier remaining schedule than the Patriots. This week they are off a bye week and double digit favorites against the Colts. The Steelers are in a tough spot however as double digit favorites on the road are just 28-42 against the number in the last 70 games cashing in at just 40 percent at the betting window.
The Baltimore Ravens have struggled this season, but you might be looking for a comeback from this team. This team has cashed five straight overs and this team is getting Danny Woodhead back to help on offense. Joe Flacco plays belter later in the season as he is 49-27 straight up after the first of November with 107 touchdowns. They have an easier schedule to end the season which means there could be value betting on the birds in the near future.
The Bengals are going to go to Tennessee to take on the Titans who are an up and coming franchise. The betting public has given up on the Bengals as the Titans are getting over 60 percent of the early wagers. The Bengals should not be trusted they have turned over the ball 15 times this season and are -9 in turnover margin. They have only posted a game with more than 100 yards rushing and they cannot get anything right this season.
The Browns still have yet to win, but this week could be a good chance. The Lions are off a Monday night game and the Browns had a bye week. They could have the services of Corey Coleman back in the lineup to help out DeShone Kizer who wants to prove that the Browns should not have even tried to trade for AJ McCarron. The Lions are 1-3 straight up against a team that is 0-8 and worse. If the Browns don’t win they could cover the number as the Lions are just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 games overall.
The Raiders have a bye week and they may need it. There is currently a conspiracy theory hovering over the team that claims the offensive line refused to block for Derek Carr and because of this the franchise quarterback got injured. When the Raiders return from the bye week they will be going up against the Patriots in Mexico City.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs join the Oakland Raiders as the second team from the AFC West to have a bye week. The biggest question for this team may be surrounding running back Kareem Hunt. He has had an incredible season so far and ranks among the top backs in the league in rushing yardage. However many experts believe that he may have hit the “rookie wall” and we will see a decline in the future. This is something to keep an eye on in the upcoming games for Kansas City.
The Chargers are playing one of the most improved teams of the season in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers will have a tough trip, but there may be reason to back the Bolts this week as underdogs. They are coming off a bye week and have had more time to prepare for this defense and they have a veteran quarterback in Phillip Rivers. They are also winners of three of the last four games against the spread and have played close games all season long making the (+4.5) look like a gift.
The Broncos are done for the season. The once vaunted defense was destroyed a week ago against Carson Wentz and the Eagles. This week it gets even tougher against Tom Brady and the Patriots, fresh off a bye week. Although the public is pounding the Patriots and Brady struggles in Denver they do have a good trend in their favor which could hurt the Broncos. Favorites on the road after a bye week are 54-28-2 ATS which covers at a 66 percent rate.