Looking to win big? The Wildcats and Lumberjacks face off at 3:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lumberjacks are hosting the game at Johnson Coliseum in Nacogdoches, TX. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 146.5 points, and Stephen F. Austin is favored by -9.5 to win at home against Abilene Christian.


The Pick: Abilene Christian Wildcats +9.5

This game will be played at Johnson Coliseum at 3:00 ET on Saturday, February 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-70 in favor of the Lumberjacks.
  • Even though we have Stephen F. Austin winning straight-up, we like Abilene Christian at +9.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 146.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 146 points.

Will the Wildcats Make it Happen in Nacogdoches?

Abilene Christian has struggled on the road this season, going just 4-9 away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is -7.6 points per game, and they have lost nine of their last ten road games.

Overall, Abilene Christian is 9-15 this season, including a 4-9 mark in Western Athletic Conference play. They have gone 4-10 as the underdog, and they enter this game as 9.5-point underdogs.

Abilene Christian has an ATS record of 10-12 this season, including a mark of 7-6 vs. the spread on the road. As the underdog, the Wildcats are 7-7 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Abilene Christian has gone 4-6 ATS.

Abilene Christian’s over/under record for the season sits at 12-9-1, and today’s over/under line of 146.5 is very close to their average over/under line of 145.8. So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 137 points, which is lower than their season average of 146.5.

Abilene Christian is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 87 points vs. Texas-Rio Grande Valley. This figure is more than their season average of 73.2 points per game. Leading the team in scoring was Hunter-Jack Madden with 27 points. Ali Abdou Dibba also added 16 points for the Wildcats.

Coming into today’s game, the Abilene Christian defense is giving up an average of 75.5 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Abilene Christian’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 44.9% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 32.2% this season.

Is A Home Victory Likely for the Favored Lumberjacks?

Stephen F. Austin comes into this game as a 9.5-point favorite, and they will look to improve their record to 9-5 at home this season. The Lumberjacks have gone 14-10 overall, including a 7-6 mark in Western Athletic Conference play.

After a 71-63 loss to UT Arlington, Stephen F. Austin will look to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time since their two-game road losing streak earlier this season. Over their last 10 games at home, the Lumberjacks have gone 7-3.

Stephen F. Austin has struggled against the spread this season, posting a 6-16 ATS mark. Their ATS record is even worse when they are the favorite, as they are just 4-11 vs. the spread when favored this year. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Lumberjacks have gone just 2-8 vs. the spread.

Stephen F. Austin’s over/under record this season is 13-9 and the average scoring total in their games is 147.1 points. Today’s over/under line of 146.5 is slightly lower than the average over/under line in their games (146.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points and their OU record during this stretch is 1-2.

The Stephen F. Austin offense is coming off a game in which they scored 63 points vs. UT Arlington. Overall their field goal percentage was 38.2% while connecting on 1 three. Leading the team in scoring was Kyle Hayman with 18 points. Latrell Jossell also added 14 points for the Lumberjacks.

The Lumberjacks’ defense is presently ranked 153rd nationally, allowing an average of 71.4 points per contest. Stephen F. Austin will look once again to perform well on defense, holding UT Arlington to just 38% shooting in their most recent game.