The 2023 NFL Draft is almost here and it’s a venue for betting just as much as betting on NFL football games is. The over-unders are up on the board at with a focus on draft positions, props and the numbers of players from college football conferences who are picked in the first round. Let’s look at four over-under props which offer a mixture of value and likelihood.


Under 4.5 Big 12 Players Drafted In The First Round

Odds at -210

The Big Ten and SEC are going to get the vast majority of players picked in the first round, which essentially means that in order for this under bet to lose, five Big 12 players will have to be picked in roughly 10 to 12 slots. The Big Ten and SEC will combine for somewhere from 20 to 22 draft picks in the first round, so that doesn’t leave a ton of room for the Big 12 to get five draft prospects called on the first night of the draft. The ACC will probably get at least two, maybe three, players picked. The Pac-12 will have a few. Notre Dame might get one. Other conferences might get one or two. Keep in mind that Oklahoma and Texas were not especially strong this past season. Those two schools are usually the foremost sources of Big 12 first-round NFL draft picks, so the fact that they both had down years in 2022 offers considerable reason to bet the under here. The price might not be fantastic, but it’s not terrible, either, and the likelihood is very strong. The price here should probably be -300, and you’re getting it for -210. That’s not a steal, but it’s better than you probably had a right to expect.

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Under 3.5 ACC Players Drafted In The First Round

Odds at +120

Clemson didn’t have a very strong year in 2022, much as Oklahoma was not very good last year. Clemson is usually the foremost source of elite ACC football talent, so with the Tigers not hitting their typical marks, in a way which is very similar to the Big 12 Conference’s most recognizable football brands this past season, betting the under here makes sense. The ACC might get three, but it’s hard to see four. Clemson should get one player picked, maybe two, and Boston College receiver Zay Flowers should go in the first round, but where is everyone else? Maybe Florida State will get a player picked around No. 30, maybe the Pittsburgh Panthers, but at plus money, this is a good risk to take. It might come down to the last two picks of the first round. It’s very unlikely four ACC players will be picked in the first 29 spots.

Devon Witherspoon Draft Position

Odds at Under 7.5 at -200

There just isn’t room for Witherspoon in the first seven picks. Which team is going to take him? Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter, Will Anderson, Will Levis, and probably Christian Gonzalez will go in the first seven spots in some order. Quarterbacks and other high-profile players are going to gobble up spots, leaving no real margin for Witherspoon, whose projected spot is much more likely to be No. 8-11 rather than anywhere in the top seven. He won’t go higher than No. 7, so you’re really in good shape in terms of the odds here.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft Position

Odds at Over 12.5 at -250

Smith-Njigba is going to be the first receiver off the board. One NFL team is going to fall in love with him and take him in the top 12, probably from No. 8 to No. 12. The value of an elite wide receiver in today’s NFL is huge, given how important it is to pass the ball. Receivers usually do not get shut out of the top 12 in a draft.