2019 Updated WNBA Power Ratings – Playoff Edition

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-09-09

The WNBA regular season has come to an end, so time for one final power rating update, as the numbers don’t change in the post-season. Given the WNBA single-game elimination format for the first two rounds of the playoffs – and then switching to a best-of-5 for the semifinals and finals.

No surprise to see the Mystics having the best home and away ratings, with Washington 6 points better at home than both Connecticut and Los Angeles. Washington’s road numbers are 2 points better than Las Vegas and Connecticut.

The Sun and Sparks are the only two teams who would be predicted to defeat Washington at home, while the Mystics and Aces would be even in Las Vegas. Washington will be predicted to win each home game by double digits once they begin play next week.

The Sparks weren’t very good on the road this season, which will hurt them if they reach the semifinals, while the Aces will probably fare better away from home. Los Angeles has the biggest difference between home and away performance this season, with an overall home rating that is 11 points better than their away number, but the Mystics are No. 2, playing 10 points better at home. Remember, the dual-tiered power ratings can quickly be converted to a single-number power rating by subtracting a team’s defensive number from its offensive number, so Chicago would have an 83 at home and a 77 on the road.

These are the current numbers after the games of Sept. 8 were played.

Team Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Atlanta Dream  72- (-4) 77 – 1
Chicago Sky 86 – 3 83 – 6
Connecticut Sun 86 – (-3) 81 – (-2)
Dallas Wings 77 – (-1) 74 – 1
Indiana Fever 80 – 2 77 – 1
Las Vegas Aces 86 – 1 83 – 0
Los Angeles Sparks 81 – (-8) 79 – 1
Minnesota Lynx 80 – (-3) 78 – (-5)
New York Liberty 79 – 7 76 – 2
Phoenix Mercury 81 – (-1) 76 – (-1)
Seattle Storm 79 – (-1) 78 – 1
Washington Mystics 88 – (-7) 85 – 0


Power Rating Key

To get a predicted score, simply add a team’s offensive number to its opponents defensive number. If Chicago is at Atlanta, we would have Chicago’s road offensive rating of 83 plus Atlanta’s home defensive rating of (-4) for a projection of 79 points. Atlanta’s home offensive rating of 72 would be added to Chicago’s road defensive rating of 6 to get 78, so our projected score is 79-78.

If Atlanta is at Chicago, we’re going to have Atlanta’s away offensive rating of 77 added to Chicago’s defensive rating of 3, giving us 80, while the Sky’s’ home offensive rating of 86 is added to Atlanta’s road defensive rating of 1 giving us 87, so we predict the Sky to win 87-80.

We will update the ratings frequently during the season and pay close attention to the home and away performances of teams, as quite a few played a completely different style depending on the location of the game.

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