2019 Updated WNBA Power Ratings

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-07-08

We’re back with another update of our WNBA power ratings, and it’s probably a little more valuable now, as oddsmakers are making things as difficult as possible for WNBA bettors and taking late line releases to a new level. On Sunday, July 7, odds weren’t posted by 11:10 a.m., which is ridiculous, especially when you have games that start in less than three hours.

If you follow along with the WNBA selections, which right now has been the one sport I haven’t stunk it up in, you see that the projections are the main factor that go into selections, but aren’t the only factor, which is as it should be with all sports. There are plenty of other factors that come into play, such as travel, look-ahead games and letdowns, revenge and the like.

Through games of July 7, home teams were still decent bets, going 45-35-3 (56.2%) and totals were still going to the under, with over/unders sitting at  34-47-2 (42%).  Home underdogs are still tearing it up with a 22-7-1 record and totals in those games with a home dog are 12-18. Scoring is down roughly 10 points from last season, which is the primary reason totals are going under the number, while home teams are winning by an average of 3.4 points, compared to 1.9 points last season, which also explains why home teams have been getting the money more often than not.

These are the current numbers after the games of July 7 were played.

 

Team Home Power Rating Away Power Rating
Atlanta Dream  76- (-4) 78 – (-2)
Chicago Sky 82 – 1 81 – 5
Connecticut Sun 85 – (-3) 80 – (-1)
Dallas Wings 79 – 1 75 – 3
Indiana Fever 81 – 4 77 – (-2)
Las Vegas Aces 85 -1 85 – 0
Los Angeles Sparks 80 – (-6) 79 – (-1)
Minnesota Lynx 79 – (-3) 76 – (-4)
New York Liberty 77 – 3 76 – 2
Phoenix Mercury 82 – (-2) 78 – (-1)
Seattle Storm 78 – (-1) 78 – (-2)
Washington Mystics 85 – (-6) 85 – (-1)

 

Power Rating Key

To get a predicted score, simply add a team’s offensive number to its opponents defensive number. If Chicago is at Atlanta, we would have Chicago’s road offensive rating of 81 plus Atlanta’s home defensive rating of (-4) for a projection of 77 points. Atlanta’s home offensive rating of 76 would be added to Chicago’s road defensive rating of 5 to get 81, so our projected score is 81-77 for the Dream.

If Atlanta is at Chicago, we’re going to have Atlanta’s away offensive rating of 78 added to Chicago’s defensive rating of 1, giving us 79, while the Sky’s’ home offensive rating of 82 is added to Atlanta’s (-2) giving us 80, so we predict the Sky to win 80-79.

We will update the ratings frequently during the season and pay close attention to the home and away performances of teams, as quite a few played a completely different style depending on the location of the game.

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