Last Updated: 2019-04-13
The Detroit Pistons have the unenviable task of facing the Milwaukee Bucks when the teams tip-off their Eastern Conference playoff series on Sunday. In no surprise, the Bucks are huge favorites, with 5Dimes having Milwaukee -3500 and +1750 on the Pistons.
The Pistons aren’t a great shooting or defensive team and were outscored on the season, averaging 107.0 points per game and allowing 107.3. Detroit wasn’t the worst of road teams this season, going 15-26 straight-up and 21-20 ATS away from home. The Pistons were outscored by 3.1 points away from home on average, so it could have been a little worse.
Blake Griffin is the key man on the Pistons and played more of an outside game than he did in his younger years. Griffin attempted seven 3-pointers per game his first year in Detroit and hit 36.2% of them, which might bode well for Detroit, as the lone weakness Milwaukee appears to have is 3-point defense.
Andrew Drummond, Reggie Bullock, Reggie Jackson and Wayne Ellington are the others to average more than 10 points a game, as Detroit was a pretty deep team, with Griffin leading the squad with 35 minutes played per game.
When you discuss the Milwaukee Bucks you have to start with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averaged 27.7 points and grabbed 12.5 rebounds, while hitting 57.8% of his field goal attempts. He also led the team in assists, so obviously he’s the main spoke in the wheel, but the Bucks have plenty of talent in guys like Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Malcom Brogdon and others.
As a team, the Bucks shot an impressive 56.5% on 2-pointers and were 35.3% on 3-pointers, which is a shade above the Pistons. But by comparison, Detroit was 50% of 2-point attempts. Milwaukee’s offense does cause the defense to be overlooked a little bit and the Bucks aren’t bad. They allow 109.3 points per game due to play a bit of a faster pace, but do hold teams to 43.3% shooting. The Bucks do allow 36.1% from long range, which is a little higher than you like to see, so you have to expect the Pistons to put up plenty of 3-point attempts.
Milwaukee did coast a little bit down the stretch, but you have to expect them to be ready here.
You certainly don’t need me to tell you that a -3500 team is a good bet, although the line has actually dropped a bit in the last 24 hours, as the Bucks were closer to -5000 on Friday. Once again, we’ll look at the exact games props offered at Bookmaker. I don’t see the Pistons winning in Milwaukee, where the Bucks are favored by 12.5 in Game 1 and I have Milwaukee winning by 13.
The key here is trying to figure out if the Pistons can win in Detroit, which wouldn’t be a huge shock, as I have the Bucks winning by two on the road. The Bucks are +130 to sweep and +140 to take it in five games, which I think is most likely to happen, so will play .40 units on the Bucks to sweep at +130 and .60 on Milwaukee to win in five +140.
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