Last Updated: 2019-07-02
Netherlands will take on Sweden at Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Decines-Charpieu, France, in the second semifinal clash of the 2019 Women’s World Cup. The Orange is listed as a -164 fave to reach the championship game, but the Blue and Yellow have already upset the odds a couple of times at this tournament, so we expect to see a dramatic battle.
Netherlands vs. Sweden
Three-way: 1: Netherlands +120; X: +225 Draw; 2: Sweden +225
Spread -0.5: Netherlands +120; Sweden -154
Total 2.5 Goals: Over +120; Under -154
Both Teams to Score: Yes -111; No -125
The Orange has won all five games at the 2019 Women’s World Cup so far. Sarina Wiegman’s girls topped Group E ahead of Canada, Cameroon, and New Zealand, recording a 6:2 goal difference. In the round of 16, they barely outlasted Japan 2-1 thanks to a penalty kick in the ultimate minute of the second half, while Holland completely outplayed Italy in the quarterfinal to earn a 2-0 victory. The Orange had 21 shots against Italy, allowing just six in a return and keeping the ball in possessions for 60.0% of the time.
The 22-year old forward Vivianne Miedema (80 caps, 61 goals) is leading the way for the Orange with three goals including the opener against Italy. Forward Lieke Martens (108 caps, 44 goals) added a couple of goals, hitting a brace versus Japan, while another forward Lineth Beerensteyn (45 caps, 10 goals) scored one goal along with an assist. Midfielder Sherida Spitse (167 caps, 30 goals) is the team’s best assist-maker with four dishes at this tournament.
- Netherlands won eight straight games
- Five of Netherlands’ last seven games saw three or more goals in the total
- Both teams scored in three of Netherlands’ last four outings
The Blue and Yellow is the most pleasant surprise of the 2019 Women’s World Cup. Peter Gerhardsson’s girls were +200 underdogs in a round-of-16 1-0 victory over Canada, while they were huge +450 dogs in a 2-1 victory over Germany in the quarterfinal. Sweden lost just one game at this tournament, and it was in the group stage against the reigning champions USA 2-0. The Blue and Yellow finished second in Group F with six points and a 7:3 goal difference.
Playmaker Kosovare Asllani (132 caps, 34 goals) is leading the way for Sweden, scoring two goals and making a couple of dishes. Striker Stina Blackstenius (47 caps, 12 goals) also bagged a couple of goals including the winner against Germany, while midfielder Elin Rubensson (71 caps, 3 goals) and defender Linda Sembrant (115 caps, 9 goals) added one goal and one assist each.
- Sweden lost three of its last ten games along with six wins and a draw
- Five of Sweden’s last seven games saw two or fewer goals in the total
- Both teams scored in two of Sweden’s last seven outings
While Netherlands relies on a terrific front line with Lieke Mertens and Vivianne Miedema onwards, Sweden leans on its sturdy defensive line while waiting for its chances through counter-attacks. Hereof, I think both teams will find the net. I expect Holland to control the ball in the midfield, and the Orange should find a way to score against Sweden. However, Holland’s defensive line is certainly a fragile part of this team, so Sweden should find the net, too.
When it comes to the side bet, it’s really hard to lay the odds. Holland is a fave for a reason, but Sweden upset the odds against Canada and Germany, and the Blue and Yellow certainly stand a chance on this one. If I have to choose, I would wager on Holland, but I still think betting on goals is a better option. Over the last five head-to-head duels, each team has been victorious twice, and Holland won the previous two encounters.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score YES (-111)
Additional Pick: Netherlands (+120)
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