2019 CONCACAF Gold Cup Final – Mexico vs. USA Betting Pick & Predictions

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-07-07

The 2019 Gold Cup Final will see Mexico taking on the USA at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois, Sunday, July 7, 2019. The USMNT will defend the title and look for its seventh Gold Cup trophy, while the Tricolor will search for its 11th title. Mexico is a slight favorite to win this battle, but the USA is playing at home which could be a decisive factor. Howsoever, we expect to see a tremendous game between two arch-rivals.

Mexico vs. USA

Three-way: 1: Mexico +125; X: +220 Draw; 2: USA +220

Spread -0.5: Mexico +125; USA -161

Total 2.5 Goals: Over +114; Under -152

Both Teams to Score: Yes -111; No -111

MEXICO

The Tricolor dominated its rivals in the group stage, recording three wins with a 13:3 goal difference, but the problems started in the knockout stage. Mexico barely outlasted Costa Rica in the quarterfinal after a penalty shootout, while Gerardo Martino’s boys needed extra time to eliminate Haiti in the semifinal. Mexico scored the only goal from the penalty kick in the 93rd minute of the game while blowing a ton of scoring chances during the clash.

Forward Raul Jimenez (77 caps, 22 goals) scored the winner against Haiti, and he’s leading the way for Mexico with five goals and a couple of assists at the 2019 Gold Cup. Midfielder Uriel Antuna (7 caps, 4 goals) bagged four goals along with two dishes, while the captain Andres Guardado (160 caps, 28 goals) added two goals and one assist.

Betting Trends:

  • Mexico won seven of its last nine games along with a couple of ties
  • Both teams scored in seven of Mexico’s last nine outings
  • Seven of Mexico’s last nine contests saw three or more goals in the total

USA

After a narrow 1-0 victory over Curacao in the quarterfinal, the USMNT outlasted Jamaica 3-1 in the semifinal. The reigning champs outplayed Reggae Boyz and fully deserved their place in the final. Midfielder Christian Pulisic scored a brace in the second half, proving he’s the best player at this tournament, while his team conceded after keeping its net intact in the previous four games. The USMNT won all five games at the 2019 Gold Cup, tallying a 15:1 goal difference.

Christian Pulisic (30 caps, 13 goals) is a key player for the Yanks, scoring three goals along with three assists so far. Forward Gyasi Zardes (50 caps, 10 goals) bagged three goals, while midfielder Weston McKennie (13 caps. 3 goals) added a couple of goals. McKennie scored a winner against Curacao and the opening goal versus Jamaica.

Betting Trends:

  • USA won five of its last eight games along with two losses and a draw
  • Both teams scored twice in the USA’s previous eight outings
  • Four of the USA’s last six contests saw three or more goals in the total

Match Prediction

Mexico is a better team than the USA on a paper, but the Tricolor has won just one of its last ten meetings with the USMNT along with five draws and four losses. Considering the betting trends and the teams’ current form, we should see a really tight battle that could be easily finished in a draw.

I expect Mexico to control the ball in the middle of the park, while their rivals have an advantage in aerial duels and will be very dangerous from set pieces. Mexico is vulnerable at the back, so I expect the USA to find the net. On the other side, Mexico’s front line should score once, too. Although the USMNT played tough defense at this tournament, Mexico can count on some prolific forwards.

Therefore, I would avoid betting on the winner and stick with goals instead. Three of the last four head-to-head duels saw both teams finding the net.

The Pick: Both Teams to Score YES (-111)

Additional Pick: Draw (+220)

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