It’s back to update our Canadian Football League power ratings and take a look at some of the trends that have developed over the course of the season. The power ratings have been a little better than I have, as I’m still stinking it up in the CFL, the result of reading too much into certain aspects of the game.
One of the things that’s made this season a bit trickier than the past few years are the number of quarterbacks who have been injured, with Matt Nichols back on the injured list for Winnipeg entering Friday’s game at Edmonton. He is expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks. Other quarterbacks to miss time are Bo Levi Mitchell, Vernon Adams, and Jeremiah Masoli, who is done for the year.
So far this season, scoring is pretty much the same as it was last year, 50.4 compared to 50.7, and home teams have hit a bit of a slump, going 1-7 ATS the last two weeks. After covering the number 53.5% of the time a year ago, home teams are now 19-20 (48.71%) against the number so far this year. After going 16-13 last year, home underdogs are 7-6 ATS so far this season, losing all three tries the past two weeks.
Totals are also running pretty close to a year ago, as there have been 46.2% overs so far this season after going just 44% a year ago. Totals of 53 and higher are just 4-8 this season and were 13-19-2 a year ago, so we haven’t seen the expected points when a bit of a shootout is expected by the sportsbooks.
Teams coming off a bye haven’t seen a much of a difference in their performance, as they’ve gone 5-5 this season after tearing it up last season with a 19-9 mark, including the playoffs. Totals also stand at 5-5
Here are the updated ratings through entering Week 11.
2019 CFL Power Ratings
|Team||Home Power Rating||Away Power Rating|
|British Columbia Lions||27 – 0||23 – 4|
|Calgary Stampeders||27 – (-2)||30 – (-3)|
|Edmonton Eskimos||27 – (-1)||24 – (-1)|
|Hamilton Tiger-Cats||30 – (-2)||29 – (-3)|
|Montreal Alouettes||21 – 5||20 – 2|
|Ottawa Redblacks||22 – 1||21 – (-1)|
|Saskatchewan Roughriders||26 – (-3)||27 – 2|
|Toronto Argonauts||23 – 6||15 – 5|
|Winnipeg Blue Bombers||32 – (-5)||29 – (-2)|
Power Rating Key
To get a predicted score, simply add a team’s offensive number to its opponents defensive number. If Toronto is at Winnipeg, we would have Toronto’s road offensive rating of 15 plus Winnipeg’s home defensive rating of (-5) for a projection of 10 points. Winnipeg’s home offensive rating of 32 would be added to Toronto’s road defensive rating of 5 to get 37, so our projected score is 37-10 for the Blue Bombers.
If Winnipeg is at Toronto, we’re going to have Winnipeg’s away offensive rating of 29 added to Toronto’s 6, giving us 35, while the Argonauts’ home offensive rating of 23 is added to Winnipeg’s (-2) giving us 21, so we predict the Blue Bombers by a score of 35-21 on the road in a higher-scoring contest.