Last Updated: 2018-01-06
As mentioned in our preview of the ASB Classic, there are two tune-ups this week for ATP players as they look ahead to the Australian Open. The one in focus in this write-up is the Sydney International. Like the ASB Classic, both tournaments try to emulate the conditions in Melbourne, so we have a plexi-cushion hard court surface here as well. Over in Sydney, things are much more wide open, as the only players even in the top 25 who are playing this week are Gilles Muller and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
The draw is as follows, with winners advancing in a traditional bracket format:
The odds from Bet365 Sportsbook look like this:
Gilles Muller +700
Philipp Kohlschreiber +800
Diego Schwartzman +800
Gilles Simon +900
Fernando Verdasco +1000
Fabio Fognini +1100
Alexandr Dolgopolov +1100
Alberto Ramos-Vinolas +1200
Feliciano Lopez +1200
Adrian Mannarino +1400
Jan-Lennard Struff +1800
Mischa Zverev +1800
Benoit Paire +2000
Jared Donaldson +2200
Viktor Troicki +2500
Alex De Minaur +2800
Damir Dzumhur +2800
Jordan Thompson +2800
Aljaz Bedene +3300
Leonardo Mayer +3300
John Millman +4000
Filip Krajinovic +5000
Paolo Lorenzi +6600
Alex Bolt +6600
The stats for this field are here:
There really is no dominant player in this field, the highest ranked being Gilles Muller at #25 and Albert Ramos-Vinalos at #27, and therefore the odds are all pretty high. There is lots of opportunity here.
The defending champion is Gilles Muller and this tournament will always be special to him, as he will be to the fans in Sydney. His win here last year was his first title, at 33 years old. He has the shortest odds at +700 but is probably still worth a look. A pretty favorable draw, hold/break stats that are over 100, success on hard courts and in tiebreaks, all that puts him right in the thick of it with this field. And he probably has some motivation to repeat.
The bottom half of the draw also contains Diego Schwartzman at +800. He has improved greatly on hard courts and actually sports the best hold/break stats in the tournament at 108. He has been to two finals on hards (both indooor though) and he has a very winnable quarter.
Travel is an under-rated concern in tennis. And a bunch of these players are making the journey from either the Middle East or India to Australia. That can’t be easy. Benoit Paire is always a potential threat but, he should be crossed off the list along with anyone else coming from Doha or Pune. That includes two time champion and three time finalist Victor Troicki. He might be worth a “lunch money” type bet just based on his excellent history here but, he certainly had a down year last year and his performance last week in Doha was not inspiring of a bounce-back.
Another lower priced option is Phillip Kohlschreiber. He has a big game for a smaller guy and is a great watch. His hold/break stats rank among the best in this tournament and he has a great history on hard courts. At +800 with an easy quarter, considering the competition for him is top seed Ramos-Vinolas who is terrible on hards and what should be a tired Pune champion in Gilles Simon, Kohlscreiber has a nice path to go deep.
A guy with a good price and a winnable quarter is Adrain Mannarino. He has solid hold/break stats and while his career numbers on hard aren’t eye-popping, he had a good year in 2017. His quarter includes good but, beatable opponents such as Troicki, Fabio Fognini and Alexander Dolgopolov.
The last guy worth checking out at a decent price is Damir Dzumhur. He has the stats that could lead to a decent run and his quarter is winnable, providing a chance to hedge if he does make the semis. The big road block in his quarter is the aforementioned Schwartzman but, that is someone who he shares a similar game with and who he has actually beaten (although it was on clay).
Outright winner picks for Sydney:
For additional questions or recommendations for individual matches, feel free to reach out on Twitter, where you can find me @BigTenWatto.
<< Previous PostNext Post >>