Last Updated: 2017-08-30
It won’t be long now until we start discussing the strength of schedules and the merits of who should and shouldn’t be in the Playoffs for the CFB Championship. But, maybe we should be talking about it now if we’re going to bet on it. Here is a list of the ten favorites, taken from 5Dimes today.
- Alabama +340
- Florida State +625
- Ohio State +750
- Southern Cal +775
- Oklahoma +1000
- Michigan +1550
- LSU +2000
- Louisville +2200
- Penn State +2500
- Auburn +3000
Noticeably absent from that list is last years’ Champion, Clemson. Personally, I am buying some Tigers at 33:1 simply because they’ve got Auburn at home and then Louisville on the road. If they win those two game that 33:1 price will be long gone and they should lose another game until they play FSU, and that’s at home. So they’ve got three games against teams with better odds, and although they don’t publicly talk about it, they know it.
Alabama is never going to get more expensive, and at that price you have to ask yourself if it’s worth letting a book hold your money for over six months. Typically the answer is no. Now, if they lose the opener to FSU then FSU has the inside shot as far as odds are concerned, so THEN maybe you buy some Tide. Not the detergent, the football team. And because FSU plays Alabama, if they win they won’t be around at that price for more than 15 minutes after the game goes final, so I’d buy them now. FSU doesn’t have another game they could lose until November when they travel to Clemson, and if we’re still holding tickets then there will be some great hedge opportunities since the spread isn’t likely to be big.
Personally, I don’t think Ohio State has the horses, although they do have the usual and customary soft schedule, after they play the Sooners in Columbus. I don’t think the Sooners can win, simply because we saw last season what a difference-maker Mixon was, so there’s every reason to buy some Ohio State because they won’t be challenged until they face Michigan on the road in the regular season finale. At that point they will be less than what you can buy now, so we pass on Michigan unless they beat Florida in week one.
There are some huge games in the first two weeks that will have major impacts on these numbers and the teams going forward, and although the Florida/Michigan game isn’t getting the billing some of the other games are, it might be MORE important. If Florida wins, let’s remember they’re in the SEC East so getting to Atlanta might not be that difficult. They’ve only got three true road game, all winnable, with the toughest one being at South Carolina. The point here is that Florida is 55:1. They’ll quite likely be one game from being in the Final Four and clearly create some great hedge options down the road.
We’ll look at some other teams and other options in the near future.
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