Last Updated: 2017-11-01
We’ll begin our daily NBA totals articles on Monday, but first, we’ll take a look at some of the trends that are developing in the early going of the 2017-18 season. It’s always interesting to see how various trends carry forward from one year to the next, as it becomes a bit of a guessing game between the oddsmakers and the bettors. Bettors will eventually catch on to any long-term trends and the oddsmakers will adjust, but are they adjusting enough or too much. If they adjust too much, it’s quite possible there will be a reversal, but they also open themselves up to a different group of bettors, the “wise guys” who will likely notice the adjustment and be on the other side.
So far, this season has been fair to those who like to bet the under, as all games are 45-57-2 (44.1%). Those games with a total of 200 or less are 5-6-1, but those games at 195 or under have gone 3-1. At the opposite end of the spectrum, those games with a total of 225 have gone 6-1, so the expected high-scoring games are coming though the way they’re expected to. Just two games have had a total of 230 or higher and both of those landed over the number.
Games involving Eastern Conference and Western Conference teams have gone 16-22-1, which is 42.1%, so they’re playing to the under by a fair margin.
As we looked in a previous article, games involving teams from the same division have gone 10-15 so far this season, although the difference has been the Southwest Division, as those games are 0-5-1. Without them it would be a 50-50 proposition.
Teams playing back-to-back games are 15-20 (42.9%) but are 5-5 at home and 10-15 (40%) when the second game is on the road.
The most surprising thing about the 2017-18 season is the difference in how teams are playing after a win or a loss, which is something we looked at in each of our team season total previews. So far this season, teams playing after a victory have been going under the total at an amazing rate, going 30-57-3, which is just 34.5%. Teams losing their last game have been slightly over .500 with a record of 45-42-1. (There’s a slight difference in the number of games as not all teams have returned to the court.)
It’s unlikely the winning team playing under trend will continue, especially at that clip, but is something to keep an eye on for a bit and see how it shakes out. Games involving two teams that won their last game are 6-15-1 or 28.6% through the end of October.