Last Updated: 2017-11-02
We looked at trends that have developed in the 2017-18 NBA season in totals here, now we’ll move on to take a look at what has transpired in sides and the short answer is not a whole lot, at least in most of the different categories handicappers may want to research. But there have been a few things that are worth keeping an eye on, as well as a few surprises.
Through games of Nov. 1, favorites are just 54-58-3 against the spread, with home favorites going 35-39-1 and road favorites 19-19-2 against the number. Larger favorites of 10 or more points have been a 50-50 proposition so far this season with a 10-10-2 record.
One of the most interesting things of note is that un-rested home favorites are 0-6 ATS to start the season, while home underdogs playing with no rest have posted a 4-0 spread record. Unfortunately, those haven’t carried over to un-rested road teams, as away favorites playing the second of a back-to-back situation are just 3-5 ATS and road underdogs are 10-11-1.
Favorites who are coming off a straight-up victory as an underdog have gone 5-8-1, but surprisingly, underdogs who are coming off a loss as a favorites have fared even worse, sporting a 1-8 straight-up record and are just 2-7 against the spread. Since the start of the 2013-14 season, the underdogs off a loss as a favorite are 320-320-18, so that poor record we’re seeing right now is a bit out of the norm. The favorites coming off an underdog win went 307-324-13 over the same time span, so they’re performing a bit worse than usual.
This season, underdogs coming off a victory have gone 27-21 in their next game, but just 9-13 if they were the underdog in their most recent game. If they were favorites in their last game, they’ve gone a solid 17-8 against the number. Long-term, underdogs off a win as a favorite have been poor bets, going 551-623-29, which is just 46.9%, and was just 46.5% before this year’s record is factored into the equation, so it will be interesting to see what happens here over the next month or so of the season.
We have seen a few ATS streaks so far and teams off two straight spread wins are 25-18 against the number and teams off two spread losses have gone 18-20-3, which is pretty much a wash if you’re going to be betting against them.
Teams coming off a big offensive effort, scoring 125 or more points, have gone just 5-7 ATS, while teams off a poor effort of 85 or fewer points have also been pretty poor, going 3-7 ATS. The four teams coming off a game of less than 80 points have split, going 2-2 against the number next time out.
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