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Looking for free College basketball underdog pick? You have come to the right place! BTB's featured expert college basketball handicapperStats will be giving away his top plays daily! So be sure to check back every day to see who Stats is playing today. All picks will be updated by 5pm eastern time if there is a play for that day, somedays there wont be any plays or a play and no writeup! You can also checkout Stats Free NFL Total Pick here.
About: Sam or as his friends call him, "Stats" has made numbers his game and has become great at it. Stats finds every number he can and crunches them to find out the best play of the week. Stats started out as a small time book and then spent several years in Costa Rica setting the line for some major sports books. Stats has an uncanny ability to find the right number and know how to make it work. Stats is retired from making lines but not from crushing bookies all over the world. Stats specializes in finding totals that are way off the mark and loading up on it and crushing the books! If you're looking for one total to play on the week look no further, Stats is the man!
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Overall Picks Record: - 13-16-1 -26.10* All plays are on a 1-5* scale
February 2010 Picks Record 3-6 -11.80*
January 2010 Picks Record: 6-7-1 -11.50* - January 2010 Picks archive click here
December 2009 Picks Record: 7-6 -2.80* - December 2009 Picks archive click here
3/24: Dayton +3 4 units
I picked Dayton in the last game against Cincinnati because they were the better team and the result was a blowout. Dayton is a better team than Illinois and it will show tonight on the glass and in defensive play. The Flyers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and Flyers are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Dayton wins on the court and the points are a bonu
3/23: Texas Tech +9 1 unit
Texas Tech has got to be used to the number 9 as that is the number that has been used in the spread for both of their games. They are nine point dogs at Mississippi and may not need it as they can win this game. The Red Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are one of those teams that play well on the road and welcome the role of the road underdog. Brad Reese is fresh off a double-double and look for the Red Raiders to have a much better shooting night then they did against Jackson.
3/22: Dayton +3.5 5*
The game between Dayton and Cincinnati has the potential to be one of the better games of the night. This line is lopsided and the Bearcats are favored purely because of name because Dayton is a better team. Just looking at pure stats, Dayton has the edge in almost every category. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats because the struggle as home chalk and against good teams. The Bearcats are 18-39-2 ATS in their last 59 games as a home favorite and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Dayton sees this game as a chance to get national exposure on ESPN and perhaps even convince Cincy to sign on as playing them in a season series for years to come. This game is important all around for Dayton and they will make it count.
3/21: Georgia Tech +6.5 Over Ohio St 2 *
The Buckeye’s must be thrilled since Georgetown and Kansas are both
eliminated from the Midwest bracket. Hope that does not get the best
of them today against the Yellow jackets. GT is a big bruising team
and if they can get tough with Ohio St they have a real chance of
winning this game. Ohio St has no bench play or depth to help out and
this could hurt the tiring Buckeyes down the stretch. The Buckeyes
are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and
the Yellow Jackets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
The Yellow jackets have to shoot well from the free throw line which
has been a problem in the past but if they do they could win this game
and advance to the sweet 16.
Missouri +5.5 over West Virginia 3*
Missouri is a better team than most people think. They play a favored
West Virginia team are one of the best in the country, but they live
in die with their shooting percentage and it has been inconsistent at
best this year. The pressure defense from Missouri is going to give
West Virginia fits and I would pencil them in for an upset but
Missouri has trouble with the boards. The Mountaineers are 7-19 ATS
in their last 26 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5 and they may win but
they won’t cover this number.
Play Missouri +5.5
3/19: Utah St +3 Over Texas A&M 5*
The upset today belongs to Utah St over the Aggies of A&M. What many
people don’t know is that Utah St is one of the best three point
shooting teams in the country. They have a handful of players that
shoot over 40% from behind the arc and that will give them an
inside/outside game that will frustrate Texas A&M.
3/17: Quinnipiac +14.5 3*
Virginia Tech is the much better team of these two teams but they are severely disappointed that they did not get the call to go to the Big Dance. Georgia Tech got their spot and this team and the campus have been stunned ever since. The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater, they start off sluggish and that allows for this game to be close.
3/13: Illinois +7 5*
Illinois stunned the world by upsetting the Badgers as 8 point dogs. Now they take on the Buckeyes and Evan Turner. The Buckeyes demolished Illinois the last time these two teams met so they will get caught looking past this game. The Fighting Illini are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win and they will carry momentum into this game and make it much closer than the experts think. Take the points and a hungry Illinois team.
3/6: North Carolina +14.5 2 *
This is it for North Carolina, their tournament hopes are all but gone and this game could be a redeeming one for them. Duke is in for sure but needs to rebound off a loss to Maryland to set the ship right. The Blue Devils are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 Saturday games and the Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Carolina will keep it close enough and tking the point sis the right way to go!
3/4: Rutgers +4 2*
Seton Hall may have seen their hopes fade and now they have a tough task to beat Rutgers at home. Rutgers always plays well at hoe and this is the same place they beat Georgetown. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big East and the Scarlet Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big East. Take the Knights!
3/2: Cincinnati +4 2*
The Bearcats feel like they are on the bubble and need a win at home against Villanova to make people take notice. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. The Bearcats played close against the Mountaineers and will do it again against the Cats, look for the upset!
2/28: Louisville +3.5 2*
UConn has come out of nowhere and they are knocking out powerhouse teams as they make a run for the field of 65 in March. That run comes to an end when they face a team that is more desperate in the Louisville Cardinals. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and that will continue to today. The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. The Cardinals get a much needed win.
2/27: Minnesota +3 4 units
The Golden Gophers played Purdue to the wire but still ended up just a bit short as they lost at the buzzer. They know they will not be dancing but Illinois is on the bubble. The one thing that will burst their bubble for sure is a loss to Minnesota today. The Fighting Illini are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Golden Gophers have proved that they won’t give up late in the season and are still playing tough basketball. Take the Gophers to spring the upset and burst the bubble for Illinois and their fans
2/24: Penn St +7.5 3*
Ohio St is obviously the much better team in this game but this is a sweet spot to catch them in the letdown. They just won at Michigan St but keep in mind they are not a great road team. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and the Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Penn St plus the points.
2/23: Texas Tech +4 4* loss
Kansas ST is off a grueling game where they had to come from behind to win and will have a tough time answering the bell on the road against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and the home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Kansas St has a history of struggling here and they will again as they lose tonight against the Red Raiders.
2/16: Mississippi St +2.5 3* loss
Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country but they have been known to play inconsistently. When the cats hit the road this time they better be prepared for they are playing in a very tough environment. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and will have trouble with Dee Bost has he can put up some points. The Bulldogs are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Cats are on upset alert Tuesday night against the dogs.
2/15: Texas A&M +7 4* win
The Aggies won a tough road game against Texas Tech has underdogs and that will give them motivation as they face the number one team in the country. A&M is a different team at home and play much better and have yet to lose a game. The Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and the Aggies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. This game comes down to the final seconds making the Aggies a great play as home underdogs.
2/13: Penn St +7.5 2* loss
The theory is that teams that get an injured player back in the lineup have a tough time to cover the spread. Kalin Lucas is expected to be back in the lineup so wait for this spread to jump to eight or nine points. The Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record and will keep this one close at home.
2/9: Texas Tech +6 3* win
Oklahoma is in let down mode as they are off a very big win over Texas where they played flawless basketball. The Red Raiders have the edge on offense and have a good scoring punch. The Sooners are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday games and the Red Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. Look for an upset on Tuesday night.
2/8: Texas +2 5* loss
In a Big 12 match up look for Texas to defeat Kansas. Texas lost to Oklahoma as they were looking forward to this game and the crowd will be loud and ready to support the home team. Texas loves to play on Big Monday as they are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 Monday games. The Jayhawks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Look for the #1 team in the country to lose tonight!
2/4: Stanford +4.5 2* win
Pac-10 basketball is better this year than it has been in the past. This game is a good match up tonight between the Cardinal and the Bruins. Stanford has yet to win a game on the road but this is a match up issue for UCLA. The Bruins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. Look for the Cardinals to pull their first win on the road in an upset.
2/2: Nebraska +3.5 2* loss
Kansas St has beaten Texas this year and took Kansas to the wire and so it only makes sense that they are 3 point favorites on the road at Nebraska. The problem is they are a horrible road favorite. The Wildcats are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Nebraska. Take the home dogs in the Big 12.
2/1: Uconn +6 2 * loss
The Huskies have had a very tough year losing their coach to health reasons and not being able to win on the road (0-4) or the big game. Tonight fresh off an upset loss they can make up for it. The Huskies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win and won’t cover this number tonight.
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