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Here's a look at three starters on Friday who take a combined 13-1 over record - and some great run support - to the mound:
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (1-1, 4.34 ERA, 5-0 O/U)
If you take out Leake's only great start this season, seven scoreless innings against the Phillies, his ERA is 5.73 in his other four games. The Reds' bats have also provided an average of 6.0 runs of support with Leake pitching, up from the team's season average of 4.4 runs a game.
Felix Doubront, Boston Red Sox (3-0, 4.24 ERA, 4-0 O/U)
The Red Sox have the second-best offense in baseball, scoring 5.37 runs per game. They're even better with Doubront on the mound, giving the lefty an average of 7.75 runs of support in his four starts. In three of his games, the bullpen has given up at least one run after Doubront left the hill.
Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals (3-0, 3.06 ERA, 4-1 O/U)
Guthrie has been stellar for Kansas City, and the offense have been just as good. In his four starts that have gone over, the Royals have scored an average of 6.0 runs, better than the team's mark of 4.52 runs per game.
Over' bets in A's games improve to an incredible 24-5
The Oakland A's over/under record improved to a staggering 24-5 record Wednesday after the Los Angeles Angels defeated the A's 5-4. That's an insane success rate of 86 percent.
They have now played over the total in five straight games overall and 10 of their last 11 games. Any $100 bettor would be up $1,793.40 if they picked the over in each of Oakland's 29 games.
The A's keep bashing pitchers and are tops in the majors in runs scored (162, 5.6 per game), third in hits (258, 8.9 per game) and fifth in OPS (.765).
Combine this with a pitching staff that has the 25th-ranked ERA (4.33) and the 22nd-ranked opponent batting average (.261) and you have a lot of high scoring games.
So how are oddsmakers reacting?
“We try to be as consistent as we can and not overact,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “It’s not a matter of what the record is but how (people) bet them.”
Korner added, “we take it on a game-by-game basis, even if the total goes over 100 times. If the number is where it’s supposed to be, we’re going to keep it right there.”
The A's have a day off Thursday but get back to action on Friday as they face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees' over/under record is 13-11-3 on the season.
A.J. Griffin gets the ball for the Athletics in the series opener against the Yankees' C.C. Sabathia. Griffin is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and a 4-1 O/U record. Sabathia is 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA in six starts.
This is the first time the teams will play in 2013. Sabathia went 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA in three starts versus Oakland last season. Griffin was 1-0 with an ERA of 5.23 in two starts versus the Yankees in 2012.
Miami at Philadelphia: Simply because Nolasco is more than capable, and Pettibone has given up more hits than innings pitched in both his starts, as well as more flyball outs, there is no chance of taking the Flyers Phillies here, not with that bullpen.
Washington at Pittsburgh: I will surely wonder how much effort the Braves series took from the Nats, and arriving in the early morning in Pittsburgh against a rested team and AJ, have to lean Pirates here. But, the caveat may be that it's too late to back Burnett, but Nats pen has been vulnerable and Pirates has not.
New York at Atlanta: Same thing. Really wonder how much emotion the Braves had to spend. Minor can give up the long ball, and Marcum had to pitch in the 15 inning game, so I would think that the over might be in play here, and no chance of laying -180 or even the RL. The other way if you made me. Like the total, although the weather may not be cooperating.
St. Louis at Milwaukee: Seem pretty cheap to play on Lohse and pretty respectful of Miller, who has pitched exactly 30 innings, some of which was a one-hit outing against these Brewers. Lean Milwaukee because they've already seen him, and lean under.
Arizona at San Diego: Normally I'd be all over the home underdog, but I won't fade Miley and the Padres playing in Wrigley Thursday afternoon. It's a possible RL play if anything, and lean under.
Dodgers at Giants: Certainly a lot of respect for Kerhsaw and very little for the Dodgers offense with a total of six. With that total and the Giants RL at only +135 right now, that is the play I would make.
Seattle at Toronto: Surely don't love road favorites, but with Seattle having a day off, Toronto playing a Division rival, and Romero making and early start (after pitching terrible in the Minors) with Johnson going on the DL, I'd have to take Felix here.
Oakland at New York: Ask yourself what this line would have been on CC at home a year ago, or even a month ago. More, is the right answer. With Crisp out, Young questionable, and Reddick not hitting LHP even before this slump, I most certainly lean Yankees and under.
Minnesota at Cleveland: We don't like to get in front of teams that are as hot as the Indians are at the plate. But, Masterson had thrown an awful lot of pitches and started to settle back to his usual self. I would put it past Pedro Martinez Hernandez to keep the Twins in this game and the Twins pen has been pretty solid lately. RL play on the Twins, perhaps.
Boston at Texas: I simply cannot back Doubront because you just don't know what you're going to get. He can walk four in an inning at any given time, or strike out the side on nine pitches at any given time. Not unlike the Rangers offense. Feast or famine. This game has "no ma" written on it at the moment.
Detroit at Houston: Norris is perhaps Houston's best starter and at home he's been tough. I have never been a big Fister fan anyway, but he's proving me wrong this year. The total might be too high just based on "Detroit" and "Minute Maid", and there's no chance of me laying -180. I'm just not one to take those risks, so Houston RL and under, perhaps.
Baltimore at Angels: Vargas is quietly having a bad year, and I say quietly only because he's about the fifth from the bottom on that team in terms of visible accountability for this season's rough start. Gonzalez hasn't been a whole lot better, so I lean Orioles and over.
Tampa Bay at Colorado: You do know that Moore will have to hit in this game, and that the Rays traveled after playing a few innings and getting rained out, while the Rockies went skiing or something. Colorado is 9-3 at home, and you do know how the Rays can go into those hitting funks. Tough spot and either a gift on Moore or the Rockies in the altitude (as opposed to a dome) may have a late inning advantage. I know someone that's about to send me an email for thinking this way
-- Villanueva is 1-1, 2.29 in five starts this season.
-- Minor is 3-2, 2.48 in five starts this season.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three starts.
-- Former Cardinal Lohse is 1-3, 2.53 in five starts this season.
-- Miley is 2-0, 2.40 in five starts this season.
-- Zito is 3-0, 0.00 (21 IP) in three home starts this season. Kershaw is 3-2, 2.16 in his six starts this year.
-- Moore is 5-0, 1.13 so far this season.
-- FHernandez is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia is 4-1, 3.32 in his last five starts.
-- Boston is 4-0 in Doubront starts (3-0, 4.24) this season, scoring 30 runs.
-- PHernandez is 1-0, 2.70 in two starts this season.
-- Guthrie is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Axelrod is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Fister is 3-0, 2.79 in his last four starts.
-- Leake is 1-1, 4.66 in five starts this season.
-- Nolasco has a 5.00 RA in his last three starts; Marlins are 0-4 in his starts when they score less than six runs. Pettibone has a 4.36 RA in two starts.
-- Detwiler is 0-2, 4.91 in his last couple starts.
-- Marcum allowed three runs in four IP in his first '13 start; he also lost the 15-inning game in Miami Monday night.
-- Miller is 1-2, 3.57 in his last three starts.
-- Marquis is 2-2, 5.10 in five starts this season.
-- Francis is 0-2, 12.18 in his last four starts.
-- Romero is 1-1, 5.00 in his last four starts.
-- Griffin is 0-2, 10.64 in his last couple starts.
-- Masterson is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three starts.
-- Holland is 0-1, 7.11 in his last couple starts.
-- Norris is 1-2, 9.26 in his last three starts.
-- Gonzalez is 1-1, 5.79 in his last four starts. Vargas is 0-3, 5.55 in his last four starts.
-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Cub games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Philly's last thirteen home games.
-- Nine of last twelve Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta home games stayed under total.
-- 12 of 16 games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Arizona games.
-- 10 of last 12 Dodger games went over the total.
-- Last three Colorado games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Toronto games.
-- Over is 24-4 in last 28 Oakland games.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Toronto games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kansas City games.
-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Houston games.
-- Seven of last nine Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Washington won its last two games, allowing one run. Pirates won six of their last eight home games.
-- Brewers won eight of their last 10 home games, but lost last two. St Louis won seven of its last ten games overall.
-- Padres won six of their last eight games.
-- San Francisco won seven of its last nine home games. Dodgers won three of last four road games.
-- Bronx won nine of its last eleven home games.
-- Kansas City won seven of its last ten games.
-- Indians won last four games, outscoring foes 39-5.
-- Boston won seven of its last eight games.
-- White Sox won four of their last six away games.
-- Detroit won seven of its last nine games.
-- Orioles won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their first twelve home games. Cincinnati lost five of its last seven games overall.
-- Miami lost ten of its thirteen road games. Phillies are 7-10 in their last 17 games overall.
-- Mets lost six of their last seven games. Atlanta lost six of last eight.
-- Arizona lost its last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Rockies lost seven of last eleven games. Tampa Bay is 4-11 on road.
-- Oakland lost five of its last six road games.
-- Twins are 3-5 in their last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost nine of their last twelve games. Seattle lost seven of its last nine away games.
-- Texas lost four of its last five games.
-- Houston lost 14 of its last 18 games.
-- Angels lost seven of their last nine games.