Kentucky Derby Continued......
6 Replies | 226 ViewsOn 05/02/2013 11:53 AM in General
Reasons not to bet this horse; speed fractions in his last few races have been modest, if horses pick up the pace and he has to work a little harder to stay in the game he may not have that kick left in the end. He also has lost to several of the horses in this race before including Overanalyze who fractions were 1 second faster then Verrzano's in the next race. If this race goes slow in 24.4 for the first 1/4 mile and 48 for the half I think this horse has a chance, but that is alot to ask with these type of horses in this race.
Overanalyze I will not BS anyone, but I never really looked at this horse until this morning. I just never had him on my radar. His speed fractions are pretty good compared to others in the race. He has blood lines to show he can make the distance with last years Belmont winner coming from same lines. I just watched his last two races and they look good. I honestly think he may be over looked because Pletcher has 5 horses in the race with Verrezano taking all the media. His jockey is solid in Rafeal Bejarano.
Reasons not to bet him.. I have looked over this form several times and he honestly looks solid. he lost his main jockey in Dominquez only to pick up Bejarano and he wins with him. I am trying to find a knock on him and I really can't. He stays on east coast so travel is not an issue, his races are dirt races not synthetic, closes with force and stamina. I f I had to find a knock, when he ran at Churchill downs in october he came in 3rd. Race was only 1 mile and speed fractions were 22.1, , mile in 1;37 not really a knock on him at all.
Mylute This will be the best looking horse in the race, beautiful black colt with a white stripe on nose, much like Sunday Silence, but looks dont win races. The horse is more out of sprinter blood lines than long distance running although the horse did give Revolutionary a run which to me can be a threat.
Reason not to bet.. this horse has had several jockey changes, there has to be a reason they keep jumping off. The rider is Rosie Napavarik and the best finish a woman has had in the derby is 9th which by the way was Rosie. This horse has lost to many of the horses in this field and yet to show a consistancy to be in the winners circle. Does not have a graded win under him.
Before I give out some wages I will once again say THIS RACE IS A CRAPSHOOT! 20 horse stampede to the wire with horse bumping and getting trapped and checked. Any horse who wins this is going to need a clean trip and some luck for the openings to occur.
If you choose to follow great.... hopefully we can make some money.
Winner is REVOLUTIONARY. I am sticking with the horse who has the fractions to stay close or be mid pack but also has the late kick you want to close on this race. What really did it for me is the 7 wide turn he made and coming back to pull away in the stretch. Calvin Borel is the jockey as well. If he gets this horse to settle and keep him calm he will have plenty in the tank to make a run for it.
I also like ORB and WILL TAKE CHARGE to be in it and OVERANALYZE.
I am not going with Verezzano. I just dont think he gets the distance and may run himself out of the race trying to stay clean of other horses. (just my opinion)
Have not decided How much but I am doing $Win, place, show on Revolutionary.
Exacta ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE, OVERANALYZE over REVOLUTIONARY $2 costs you $6Exacta REVOLUTIONARY over ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE, OVERANALYZE $2 cost you $6Trifecta REVOLUTIONARY over WILL TAKE CHARGE/ORB over WILL TAKE CHARGE, ORB, OVERANALYZE, JAVAS WAR $2 will cost you $16
You can do a Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double. Kentucky Oaks is on Friday, this is the female version of the Derby. I always do this double because if I win the first leg I pray for a bomb int he derby and hope to double dip the winning.
I really like BEHOLDER...it goes against my west coast coming to east coast but this horse can flat out fly.
I will do BEHOLDER over ALL in the derby.
Good luck to all. enjoy the day. I I sure hope REVOLUTIONARY WINS.
BAD WEATHER-----[B]if the track is sloppy go with JAVAS WAR, PALICE MALICE, OXBOW.[/B]