dietz Posts:254 Followers:1
On 05/02/2013 11:53 AM in General

Kentucky Derby Continued......

Normandy Invasion Is a hores not to overlook. This horse has the blood lines to run very good race and maybe even win it. He comes from Tapit which has produced horses such as Zenyatta and Horve De Grace both of whom have horse of the year honors. Blood lines have 1/ 1/4 race wins in them as well. The jockey and trainer combo is one of the best when they come to Saratoga so if this trainer knows this horse he will have a perfect game plan for Costellano to run with. Costellano hops off Revolutionary to ride this horse which I find very curious since Revolutionary ran a monster race with him last out. Normandy Invasion had a huge late kick but still could not catch Verrezano in the end, but a little more distance and the story would have been different.

Reasons not to bet this horse; speed fractions in his last few races have been modest, if horses pick up the pace and he has to work a little harder to stay in the game he may not have that kick left in the end. He also has lost to several of the horses in this race before including Overanalyze who fractions were 1 second faster then Verrzano's in the next race. If this race goes slow in 24.4 for the first 1/4 mile and 48 for the half I think this horse has a chance, but that is alot to ask with these type of horses in this race.

Overanalyze I will not BS anyone, but I never really looked at this horse until this morning. I just never had him on my radar. His speed fractions are pretty good compared to others in the race. He has blood lines to show he can make the distance with last years Belmont winner coming from same lines. I just watched his last two races and they look good. I honestly think he may be over looked because Pletcher has 5 horses in the race with Verrezano taking all the media. His jockey is solid in Rafeal Bejarano.

Reasons not to bet him.. I have looked over this form several times and he honestly looks solid. he lost his main jockey in Dominquez only to pick up Bejarano and he wins with him. I am trying to find a knock on him and I really can't. He stays on east coast so travel is not an issue, his races are dirt races not synthetic, closes with force and stamina. I f I had to find a knock, when he ran at Churchill downs in october he came in 3rd. Race was only 1 mile and speed fractions were 22.1, , mile in 1;37 not really a knock on him at all.

Mylute This will be the best looking horse in the race, beautiful black colt with a white stripe on nose, much like Sunday Silence, but looks dont win races. The horse is more out of sprinter blood lines than long distance running although the horse did give Revolutionary a run which to me can be a threat.

Reason not to bet.. this horse has had several jockey changes, there has to be a reason they keep jumping off. The rider is Rosie Napavarik and the best finish a woman has had in the derby is 9th which by the way was Rosie. This horse has lost to many of the horses in this field and yet to show a consistancy to be in the winners circle. Does not have a graded win under him.


Before I give out some wages I will once again say THIS RACE IS A CRAPSHOOT! 20 horse stampede to the wire with horse bumping and getting trapped and checked. Any horse who wins this is going to need a clean trip and some luck for the openings to occur.
If you choose to follow great.... hopefully we can make some money.

Winner is REVOLUTIONARY. I am sticking with the horse who has the fractions to stay close or be mid pack but also has the late kick you want to close on this race. What really did it for me is the 7 wide turn he made and coming back to pull away in the stretch. Calvin Borel is the jockey as well. If he gets this horse to settle and keep him calm he will have plenty in the tank to make a run for it.

I also like ORB and WILL TAKE CHARGE to be in it and OVERANALYZE.

I am not going with Verezzano. I just dont think he gets the distance and may run himself out of the race trying to stay clean of other horses. (just my opinion)

Have not decided How much but I am doing $Win, place, show on Revolutionary.

Exacta ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE, OVERANALYZE over REVOLUTIONARY $2 costs you $6Exacta REVOLUTIONARY over ORB, WILL TAKE CHARGE, OVERANALYZE $2 cost you $6Trifecta REVOLUTIONARY over WILL TAKE CHARGE/ORB over WILL TAKE CHARGE, ORB, OVERANALYZE, JAVAS WAR $2 will cost you $16

You can do a Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double. Kentucky Oaks is on Friday, this is the female version of the Derby. I always do this double because if I win the first leg I pray for a bomb int he derby and hope to double dip the winning.
I really like BEHOLDER...it goes against my west coast coming to east coast but this horse can flat out fly.
I will do BEHOLDER over ALL in the derby.

Good luck to all. enjoy the day. I I sure hope REVOLUTIONARY WINS.

BAD WEATHER-----[B]if the track is sloppy go with JAVAS WAR, PALICE MALICE, OXBOW.[/B]

dietz Posts:254 Followers:1
05/02/2013 12:47 PM

I forgot to mention that my favorite horse got scratched........GOVERNOR CHARLIE......... this horse set the track record at Sunland with fractions of 22.2 - 46.1 (half) and 1 mile at 1;34.

To put that in perspective.......no other horse in the field did a mile like that with in 1.5 seconds. Goldenscents did it in 1.35.72. Every other horse in the race has done 1:37 or 1:38 miles.

Baffert is the trainer and I would not be suprised if he pulled him out to aim for Preakness. This horse could be a total freak if those fractions hold true for him.

dietz Posts:254 Followers:1
05/03/2013 09:41 AM

Forecast is for 80% chance of rain and about 1" of it.

I will stick with REVOLUTIONARY, OXBOW, PALACE MALACE AND JAVAS WAR. I will probably just box all for of these.

The rain is going to change everything.

sharpsquare Posts:2249 Followers:5
05/03/2013 12:44 PM





Thanks !

bobalou Posts:5011 Followers:145
05/04/2013 02:01 PM

The rest of the field... Bumping this up as well



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bulldog Posts:919 Followers:9
05/04/2013 06:16 PM

going with revolutionary; best of luck and good writeups on the field.

dietz Posts:254 Followers:1
05/07/2013 11:00 AM

ORB DID IT! I did not see this horse running the slop, even the trainer said he would be shocked, but he did it.
Revolutionary was there, good solid effort. The second place horse GOLDEN SOUL was not even on the radar. WOW.

LIke I said, it is horse racing and in a 20 horse field you need luck and stamina add a wet track and you need a dart board to make a pick.

I hit the triple in the prior race with Wise Dan, Optimizer over ALL. Paid for the day.

Preakness is next--some interesting horses may be running.

Think a friend of mine won some money. Jerk shows me his bet AFTER the race. Share the knowledge.