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Well the most hyped horser race of the year is in a few days. I have been looking over each and every horse in the field and am going to offer my opinion on why to pick this horse and why NOT to pick this horse. Tomorrow I will post my wagers so give you the most bets for your money.....
ORB - There is plenty to like about this horse. He has the pedigree to run all day, he as won 3 in a row and has a hot jockey on board. Orb has run races on dirt which I prefer for entering the Kentucky Derby as well as a small travel schedule from FLA. Work outs have been great on the track and this horse is a legit chance to take it all. May be the favorite before post time.
The only thing I can say on why not to like this horse is the jockey who hopped off him. Johnny V hopped off to ride another horse. Obviously he must think the other horse is better.
Verrezano- This is a HUGE horse, almost 18 hands tall which is pretty darn big for a horse. He hasa top trainer and top jockey who hopped off a monster horse to ride this one. He has won 3 in a row and had been stronger and stronger each time out. His morning work outs on the track have been very good as well. Should not be ignored, buy I have reservations.
Reasons not to like this horse are; he has never been in trouble, always on the lead which means he has never had dirt in his face. Horses can be bothered by this and either never give an effort or burn themselves out trying to pass the horses in front. This horse will be early morning favorite, but I dont see him holding off the late closing horses. This horse stays up front and to stay on the lead for 1 1/4 miles is tough especailly when the pace should be a good honest one. His bloodlines do not have a 1 1/4 effort in them. No horse has won the Derby who has NOT raced as a 2 year old since like 1948. For me there are too many things against him to win. He will give an effort and I could be wrong, but I am not going to pick him to win.
Goldenscents- this horse comes in with some very spectacular numbers and some good efforts. His last race was the second fastest time out of the all the horses in the field for a 1 1/8 race. This horse can flat out fly around the track. He has a hot trainer who won this race last year.
Reasons not to bet this horse are; he is coming if from the west coast, which I do not like, but he is another front runner who really has not had any trouble to over come. I see this horse being outfront and may be there at top of the stretch but I do not see this horse running wire to wire or holding the spead fractions for 1 1/4. His jockey is good on the west coast, but no experience in the derby.
Revolutionary - This horse is bread to go the distance coming out of War Pass and A P Indy with Run Up The Colors. This horse also gets Calvin Borel to ride him and Calvin has been riding him in the morning to get a feel for him...very professional move. Borel is a 3x winner of the Derby and he is not afraid of the rail or weaving in and out of horses. Revolutionary had an amazing race in the Withers stakes in February...dead last in the stretch and wins by 1/2 length while splitting horses and being checked. He tops that race in the Louisiana Derby by going 7 wide around the turn, yes 7 and loses the lead to Mylute only to pass Mylute and start to pull away in end. This horse is a closer and a monster.
Reason not to bet this horse, Costellano hops off him to ride Normandy Invasion which means he must think Normandy Invasion is better. This horse also finds trouble, never seems to get a clean trip and with 20 horses that could be fatal.
Javas War- another monster closer here. This horse has made some very impressive moves down the stretch and seems to crave more distance. Bread to be long running horse with the same lines as Revolutionary. His races have been good steady races with excellent timing to run them down in the end. Dangerous stamina on this one.
Reasons not to bet him; His best races have been on synthetic surfaces (Tampa was on dirt) Churchill downs is dirt. I am a fan of the Laparoux, but more so on synthetic and turf. I dont see this jockey mixing up with 20 horses.
Will Take Charge I did not take notice of this horse until very recently after watching his Rebel Stakes race. No horse in the entire race has better bloodlines to go this distance than this horse. On his sire side has 1 Derby winner in 1990's Unbridled as well as 3 second place finishes in the Derby and Belmont stakes not to mention several other high profile races of 1 1/4 miles.
Dame side has Dehere in blood lines who could run all day and has produced several distance champions in Australia and world wide.
Traned by D Wayne Lucas and ridden by a big time jockey in Jon Court. He is almost 18 hands (17.5) which is Verrzanos size and he has grown since his last race and put on weight which may mean he is maturing at the right time. His closing speed in the Rebel was VERY VERY good with practically a hand ride. Lets just say I am glad I noticed this horse.
Reason not to bet him.. His worst race came on this track, back in November against 2 horses in this race and his best buyers figure was his last race 101 which means he may bounce.
Itsmyluckyday is the most experienced horse in the race and his best buyer figures have been steady for the past 4 races with 91 plus including one at 111 and one at 106. He came in second to Orb in his last race as well. This horse can run and his jockey is not too shabby.
Reasons not to bet this horse, STAMINA. He bread by sprint horse mostly. I like him in the preakness, but a 1 1/4 is a long way to go and he was losing ground ORB at the end of that last race. I can see him in the race for a moment in the stretch but I dont see it winning in my opinion.
I will have more tomorrow....... I have to say this......this race is the most publicized race in the world , any horse can win it with 20 + horses running. It takes luck and stamina to win this race. You can win alot on this race because SOOO much money goes into the pools, but the race is still a crap shoot in the end with all these good horses running.