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Four Wednesday starters with a combined 13-2-2 over record
Any bettor that wagered $100 on the over on each of these pitcher's 17 starts would be up $1,033.19.
Here's a look at four pitchers starting on Wednesday that have a combined 13-2-2 over record:
Erik Bedard, Houston Astros (0-2, 7.98 ERA, 3-0-1 O/U as a starter)
In Bedard's last three starts, he has given up 13 earned runs in only 7 1/3 innings, while serving up five home runs.
Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers (3-1, 1.34 ERA, 4-1 O/U)
The Tigers have scored 7, 10 and 10 runs in three of Sanchez's starts. Octavio Dotel melted down in the other over game after Sanchez gave up only two earned runs through 6 2/3 innings. Detroit averages 4.96 runs per game offensively, fifth in baseball.
Harang has been blasted since returning to the American League for the first time since 2003. He hasn't made it to the sixth inning, has given up six home runs and 16 earned runs in his three starts.
Juan Nicasio, Colorado Rockies (3-0, 4.62 ERA, 3-1-1 O/U)
The Rockies have scored an average of 6.2 runs a game when Nicasio has been on the hill, better than the team's 5.35 runs per game average. Along with Nicasio not making it to seventh inning once and giving up an average of a home run a game, the scoreboard lights up with Nicasio pitching.
MLB's best bet meets worst bet when Red Sox visit Jays
By JASON LOGAN
The best bet in baseball collides with the worst when the Boston Red Sox visit the Toronto Blue Jays for three games this week.
The Red Sox, who lead the American League East with an 18-7 record, have made +9.85 units ($985 for $100 bettors) for Boston bettors – most in the major leagues. The Blue Jays’ revamped roster has limped out to a 9-17 start and has burned backers for -10.86 units, an MLB low, heading into Tuesday’s series opener.
Both clubs are flirting with betting milestones heading into Game 1. Boston is about to post its most profitable April of the past 14 years, topping the +7.55 units it earned by going 15-6 in April 2004. The Red Sox would go on to win the World Series that fall.
Toronto, on the other hand, is one loss away from handing its faithful their worst start to the season since burning -10.85 units (7-15) in April 2004. Oddsmakers have the Blue Jays set as +109 home underdogs with the Red Sox tabbed as -118 favorites.
The biggest reason behind the drastic difference in payouts is the expectations for the AL East entering the season. Toronto was tabbed as a +175 favorite to win the division after adding some big-name talent this offseason while Boston was priced at +600, coming off a 69-93 2012 campaign in which it was the worst bet in the league at -36.85 units.
Sportsbook have adjusted those futures, moving the Red Sox to +240 to win the AL East and discounting the Jays to +350. Boston went 2-1 versus Toronto at home earlier this season and is a -141 series favorite this week. The Blue Jays are +110 to win this week’s three-game set.
Mets at Miami: Day games are always tough to predict without lineups, since many managers rest starters. You can almost count on the catcher after a night game getting the day off. Anyhow, with Stanton on the DL perhaps there's more value to the Marlins. He wasn't hitting until recently anyways. Gee is probably the Mets worst starter, and I would be skeptical of Wright playing again with a bad back. #lineups. Lean Fish here, all things being equal.
Pirates at Brewers: Burgos has looked decent beating the Cubs (I know) and kept the Brewers in the game at the Dodgers. Not sure if it's a function of his ability or the lack of familiarity, or both. Gomez coming out of the bullpen and he pretty much sucked with the Indians, so no chance of backing the Pirates (at this point). Again, need to see lineups, but cannot see a scenario where I would back Jenmar. Would love to see that total come down to 8 and perhaps consider the over, but hate overs with home teams that should win - lose the last at bat, perhaps.
Reds at Cardinals: Initial lean to the Cardinals here since I usually look to fade Bailey for some reason. He's pitched well against the Nats (twice) and the Fish, but the last time he faced a good (hitting) team it was these Cardinals, who tore him a new one. I usually do look for the pitcher to make the adjustments, however. Lynn's WHIP of 1.14 and at home is tough to ignore, but I hate the Cardinals bullpen (probably not the only one) so might look at that over if lineups are doable. Freese resting Tuesday.
Washington at Atlanta: At do like to fade the Nationals against LHS, but also liked to play on Zimmerman, too, so what to do. Until the one hitter against the Reds, he hadn't been unhittable, and few teams know him as well as Atlanta, who I rarely fade at home. They haven't played a ton of home games, and with Freeman back, Braves or nothing, especially if Werth is out for any reason.
San Diego at Cubs: Clearly some love for Cashner having the Padres as road favorites. The one thing Feldman does know how to do is "pitch", at his age, so I lean under in this one as he's usually adept at keeping the ball on the ground and/or in the park.
San Francisco at Arizona: It might be time to hop back on the Timmy train, but perhaps not. His reasonable numbers have come in two games against the Padres, and also the Cubs and Dodgers. In the Dodgers game he didn't allow a ton of runs, because he walked seven in five innings and was able to get out of it. When he throws the ball over the plate, it still gets hit. Arizona and/or over. Yes, I do know McCarthy's numbers.
Colorado at LA Dodgers: OK, why is Beckett "only" -145 at home. He's given up two bombs in every game he's pitched, and that's four times in five games. If Tulowitzki's shoulder is ok and he's in the lineup, that's probably enough for me to take the Rockies. Nicasio away from Coors Field is quite backable, if that's a word.
Twins at Tigers: This one smells funny already. Sanchez is just one of those pitchers that at any given time can get hammered, and the Twins are one of those teams that at any given time can score. Sanchez threw a gem against the Braves, but it took him 121 pitches to do it, so the Tigers pen is no doubt in play, and of the Tigers 10 losses, four of them were blown saves. If anyone rests for the Tigers, the Twins RL at EV is in play, perhaps.
Angels at Oakland: Four straight games of 109 or more pitches for Wilson and a bullpen that sucked even before the 19 inning game is all I need to know about this one. Milone is -120 for a reason and the Angels are 1-3 against LHS for a reason. Bourjos second game out. Crisp may be in. Oakland or nothing with Reddick and Cespedes in.
Houston at New York: Still seething over using the Yankees in a parlay on Monday night. So much so that it's hard to even look at this game. Phelps is not the Yankees best option and Bedard isn't going to pitch deep. Even though he's not as bad as he's been made to look lately, he's not good. Without looking at the weather and knowing the lineups, I lean over.
Boston at Toronto: Kyle has taught me over the years that Buccholz is a good pitcher. By the same token I have been on Beuhrle seemingly every time he gets lit up, and that's been three times this year already. I am once bitten and two or three times shy, so I will pass this game rather than lay -150 on the road. Because Boston will at least get the last at bat, I could make a reasonable case for laying the -1.5 or perhaps using them in a parlay.
White Sox at Rangers: Clearly we love to back Sale and fade the Rangers against LHP and the Rangers pen has been brutal lately and and and. But Tepesch seems to find ways out of things. But, he hasn't played great hitting teams (bad, in fact) so the question is, which White Sox team shows up at the plate. Sale at that price is probably too much to pass up.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City: Perhaps the two most inconsistent offenses in the universe. Hellickson is a feast or famine pitcher and he just famined, so I would like to think he feasts, especially of the Royals do not wake up at the plate on Tuesday. Then we will know if it was THEM or Ubaldo, and if it was THEM then we fade Ubaldo next time (this is important). Mendoza going on a little extra rest, and he's one of those feast or famine guys, too. Have to think this is probably the Rays game to lose, especially coming in as favorites here (what would this line have been a few weeks ago (this is important, too).
Baltimore at Seattle: I will not ever fade Chen, and may not ever take Seattle against a left handed starter. With that in mind and the fact that Baltimore hasn't seen much of Harang, the under may well be the best bet here. I would have liked 8 a whole lot better than 7.5, but the didn't ask me what I thought when they set the line. I could see, if I had wanted to lay a bunch of juice, taking the Mariners RL at home.
Philadelphia at Cleveland: That is one helluva lot of disrespect for Cleveland at home. So Bauer walked a bunch of people in Tampa Bay. So he walked 14 in 16 innings with Arizona last year. He'll do it again and the Indians will score a few and if the weather is right the game will go over. Or, he'll be a freak and we should take the Indians RL. Or, better yet, both.
-- Bailey is 0-1, 1.29 in his last three starts.
-- Burgos is 1-0, 3.27 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Zimmerman is 4-1, 2.00 in five starts this season.
-- Cashner is 1-1, 2.70 in his first two '13 starts.
-- Lynn is 4-0, 2.16 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-1, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
-- ASanchez is 3-1, 1.60 in five starts this season.
-- Milone is 2-1, 2.20 in three home starts (1-1, 7.71 on road). Wilson is 2-0, 3.63 in his last three starts.
-- Buchholz is 5-0, 1.19 in his last five starts.
-- Tedesch is 2-1, 2.53 in four starts this season.
-- Hellickson is 1-1, 3.15 in his last three starts. Mendoza allowed one run in six IP in his first '13 start.
-- WChen is 2-0, 0.57 in his last couple starts.
-- Leblanc is 0-4, 6.57 in five starts this season. Gee is 1-4, 8.39.
-- Gomez is 1-1, 10.34 in his last four starts (last one 9/29/12).
-- Maholm is 0-2, 10.24 in his last couple starts.
-- Feldman is 1-3, 6.97 in four starts this season.
-- McCarthy is 0-3, 8.13 in five starts this season.
-- Beckett is 0-3, 5.34 in five starts this season. Nicasio has a 6.05 RA in his last four starts.
-- Former Indian Lee is 1-1, 4.23 in his last four starts. Bauer allowed three runs in five IP in losing his first '13 start.
-- Diamond is 1-2, 4.86 in three starts this season.
-- Phelps is making first '13 start; he was 1-0, 1.93 in last three '12 starts.
-- Buehrle is 1-1, 6.99 in five starts this season.
-- Bedard is 0-2, 15.96 in his last three starts.
-- Sale is 0-2, 8.49 on road (2-0, 2.08 at home).
-- Harang is 0-3, 11.36 in three starts for the Mariners.
-- Seven of last ten Washington games stayed under the total.
-- 12 of last 18 Met games went over the total.
-- 11 of last 17 Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- 13 of last 16 Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last nine games at Dodger Stadium went over the total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Cleveland games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Houston games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Toronto games.
-- Ten of last fifteen Detroit games went over the total.
-- Last four White Sox games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- 23 of last 27 Oakland games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Braves won their last nine games with Washington.
-- Miami won its last three games, allowing eight runs.
-- San Diego won five of its last seven games.
-- Brewers won 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Cincinnati won 10 of its last 16 games.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.
-- Bronx won 15 of its last 21 games.
-- Boston won five of its last six games.
-- Detroit won six of its last seven games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of last eleven games. Royals won six of last nine.
-- Oakland won its last three games, scoring 29 runs.
-- Orioles won nine of their last thirteen games. Seattle won four of last six.
-- Washington lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- St Louis lost three of its last four games, scoring six runs.
-- Cubs lost six of their ten home games.
-- Pirates lost last two games, allowing 22 runs.
-- Arizona lost its last two games, scoring five runs. San Francisco lost six of its last eight games on the road, but won last two.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last eight home games. Colorado lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Indians are 6-8 in their last fourteen games.
-- Houston lost twelve of its last sixteen games.
-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Twins lost five of their last seven games.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Angels lost seven of last nine games on foreign soil.
-- NY-Mia-- Seven of last ten Hudson games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Last four Winters games went over the total.
-- SD-Chi-- Underdogs won four of last six Knight games.
-- Pitt-Mil-- Favorites won five of last six TWelke games.
-- Cin-StL-- Five of last seven Eddings games went over total.
-- SF-Az-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Bucknor games.
-- Col-LA-- Last three Vanover games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-Clev-- Underdogs won nine of last twelve Reynolds games.
-- Hst-NY-- Three of last four Blaser games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Det-- 12 of last 15 Kellogg games stayed under the total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Four of last five Dreckman games stayed under total.
-- TB-KC-- Favorites won seven of last nine TBarrett games.
-- Chi-Tex-- Last three Culbreth games went over, after 20 of previous 22 had stayed under the total.
-- LA-A's-- Overis 5-2-1 in last eight Cederstrom games.
-- Blt-Sea-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Wendelstedt games, with last four going over the total.