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On Tuesday the free MLB Totals System play is on the Under in the Minnesota at Detroit Game. Rotation numbers 967/968 at 7:05 eastern. This game fits a nice 80% totals system that plays to the under for home favorites of 200 or higher, like Detroit that are off a 1 run home favored win at -200 or higher with a total that is 8 or less and they scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss at +140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs. The Twins have gone under in 6 of 8 Division games and are hitting .225 in those games. Detroit has also struggled at the plate in division games averaging a shade over 3 runs on .229 hitting. Tonight they get Vance Worley who has better Road numbers than he does at home. He will Oppose Tigers Ace Justin Verlander who has a 1,80 era in his last 3 starts and has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 21 innings vs Minnesota. Look for this one to stay under the total tonight
Jim Feist's FREE MLB Play for Tuesday, April 30, 2013
(971) CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS (972) TEXAS RANGERS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Texas has ace Yu Darvish on the mound with a 1.65 ERA striking out 49 in 32+ innings and only 10 walks and 16 hits allowed! Texas is on a 12-5-2 run under the total and 4-0 under the total at home against a left-handed starter. Chicago has a fine lefty starter going in Jose Quintana (2-0, 2.78 ERA), who doesn't walk anyone and is a great strikeout pitcher. The under is 33-16-2 in the White Sox's last 51 road games and 9-4-1 under in Quintana's last 14 starts. And when these teams meet the under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 19-7-1 under in the last 27 meetings in Texas. Play the White Sox/Rangers under the total.
Tonight I'm back in this series, but now I want the Mets to snap their five-game slide, so I'll lay the cheap price.
New York arrived after a tough homestand in which it lost its last four and six of nine in Queens against the Nationals, Dodgers and Phillies. That's one helluva a trio to have to play. And after starting off with a decent 2-1 showing against preseason favorite Washington, the Mets dropped two of three to the Dodgers and then were swept by division-rival Philadelphia.
So after traveling to take on a Miami team that got in its licks against a dog while its down, I think the Mets will rebound now that it's settled into South Beach.
Tuesday freebie is the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals.
After a 3-7 road swing that saw them lose their final 4 games, the first-place Atlanta Braves came back home last night and held on for the 3-2 win over their division-rivals, the Washington Nationals.
I don't know what it is, but the Nats are currently snake-bit when facing the Bravos, as Washington has dropped 8 straight games to Atlanta, including the last 4 played at Turner Field.
Gio Gonzalez and Tim Hudson will head to the mound, and Hudson's last win does come against the very same Nationals he will face tonight, as Huddy was a 3-1 winner back on April 13th in D.C. versus the Nats.
Gonzalez has not had much success when facing Atlanta, sporting just a 2-3 mark in his 5 starts against the Braves, while posting an over 6 ERA in those starts.
Until Washington shows they can beat Atlanta, I think it is wise to keep riding the Braves when they face the Nationals.
My free winner for tonight is on the Minnesota Twins against the Detroit Tigers, and brace yourself - I want you listing Vance Worley against the one and only Justin Verlander. Yes, I like this pitching matchup, and I'm taking the underdog.
Though Worley is 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA on the season, and has already lost to the Tigers once this season, I think this is the game he's going to score his first win of the season. The 25-year-old right-hander has been in the league long enough to be mature enough to handle this showdown - a rematch from April 1 - as Worley opposed Verlander in a tightly contested clash in Minnesota.
So far, that was one of Worley's best performances of the season, as he lasted six innings, scattered eight hits and allowed three earned runs. The only other game he bested that effort was in Chicago, on April 20, when he stymied the White Sox to five hits and one earned run over seven frames, while striking out seven.
Now he comes in after a quirky start against the Texas Rangers, as he struggled early, then allowed only two runs on six hits over five innings. To be honest, he's been better recently after a rough start to the year, as he has given up just three runs over his last 12 innings on the hill.
Now, with revenge on the brain from the start of the month, I think he's going to end the month with a win over almighty Verlander, who let's not forget, is dealing with cracked skin on his pitching thumb, which has been treated with dermabond to seal the wound.
Let's play this as the comp winner and see how this plays out.
My free winner for tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays plus the money, as we're getting a small price against the Boston Red Sox, who arrive north of the border riding a five-game win streak.
I know that Boston starter Jon Lester is off to a 4-0 start this season, and is even enjoying his lowest walk, home run and hit rates of his career, but the Jays may be thinking about revenge in this one. Lester fired seven shutout innings in Toronto on April 7, and I give the edge to the Jays this time around.
Toronto is always dangerous at home, and will want to save face at the house. It hasn't necessarily teed off just yet. This may be one of those shocking games you see a team like the Red Sox get hammered by an inspired lineup looking to put a pitcher on his heels.
The motivation for the Jays is also to end a four-game losing skid.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
When San Francisco sends the steady serves of Madison Bumgarner to the hill against the Diamondbacks Tuesday night in Arizona the Giants will do so knowing he is 8-1 in his last nine April team starts, including 4-0 away. Bumgarner is also 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in his last six overall team starts. With Bumgarner in terrific KW form with 23 strikeouts and 3 walks in his last three starts, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Colorado Rockies
Colorado's brief slump at the plate ended with a vengeance on Monday night at Chavez Ravine when the Rockies blasted Dodgers pitching foe 19 hits in a 12-2 romp. With the bats apparently alive again, Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa could be especially dangerous this evening considering his recent form that includes three straight solid six-inning efforts, with an ERA and WHIP each at 1.00 over that stretch. So we're going to dismiss some of De La Rosa's poor historic numbers (including an 0-7 career mark) against the Dodgers, also because most of those were accumulated between 2005-09. Besides, De La Rosa has pitched fairly well at the Ravine, with a 2.49 ERA in three starts, betrayed instead by a lack of run support. De La Rosa faces a sputtering Dodgers offense that is batting just .198 over the past six games.
The Atlanta Braves are 0-19-2 Under at home when coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit during a night game and failed to lead by 3 or more runs after four innings of play. Take the Under