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Play On - Road teams (CINCINNATI) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing
129-94 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.8% 53.3 units )
7-14 this year. ( 33.3% -5.5 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets
MLB BALTIMORE at SEATTLE
BALTIMORE is 39-27 (+23.5 Units) against the money line in Road games after 2 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (3.9) , OPPONENT (3.8)
2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ New York Yankees - ASTROS TO WIN (+228)
Listed Pitchers: Harrell vs Pettitte
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 4.56 units)
The Astros are coming off being swept in 4 games by the Red Sox to fall to 7-18 on the year and 3-10 on the road, while the Yankees are coming off a 4 game sweep of the Blue Jays and are 15-9 on the year and 9-4 at home. Despite that I think we are getting Houston at a generous underdog price here at +228 given the pitching match up. Lucas Harrell will take the mound for the Astros and he is 2-2 on the season with a 4.08, .283 OBA and 1.57 WHIP. In his last start he pitched 7 innings giving up just 1 earned run, and over his last three starts he has a 1.96 ERA. In 5 starts he has allowed more than 2 earned runs just once. The Astros are 2-3 in games that Harrell starts. Andy Pettitte will get the start for the Yankees and he has had a great start going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA, 2.48 OBA and 1.13 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has a 2.66 ERA, and the team is 3-1 in games he has started in. Although the Yankees seem like the obvious choice here I think the price gives us value on taking Houston as big road underdogs.
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners - ORIOLES TO WIN (-108)
Listed Pitchers: Britton vs Saunders
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.85 units)
The Orioles are coming off a 9-8 loss in Oakland yesterday, but they have won 5 of their last 7 games and are 15-10 on the season (8-5 on the road). The Mariners have won 2 straight and 3 of 4, but continue to score runs as they’ve scored 3 or fewer in 3 straight. While Baltimore is 2nd in the MLB with 129 runs scored in 25 games played (5.16 runs per game) the Mariners are 25th with just 87 runs scored in 27 games played (3.22 runs per game). Tonight we will see an all south paw match up with Zach Britton taking on former Oriole starter Joe Saunders. Britton is making his first start in the Majors this year after posting a 1.98 ERA over three starts in Triple-A. Last year he was 5-3 with a 5.07 ERA over 12 appearances and 11 starts. Joe Saunders has made 5 starts this year and is 1-3 with a 6.33 ERA, .330 OBA and 1.78 WHIP. Although he has had success at Safeco Field, I think his old teammates will be able to rough him up a bit. In his last two starts he has pitched 9.2 innings giving up 20 hits and 15 earned runs. Baltimore is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs a left handed stater, and 8-1 in their last 9 vs AL West opponents. The Mariners are just 1-4 in games where Saunders has started, and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs left handed starters. The Orioles have won 8 straight vs Seattle and 5 straight in Seattle. I’m on Baltimore tonight.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +115 (moneyline)
It is a matter of time before the Angels go on a run, as they are too talented to continue struggling. Oakland made its mark early in the season as they rattled off nine straight wins, but otherwise they have been bad. Over their last 10 games they stand at just 2-8 and have fallen to .500 at home. Dan Straily has had problems with the Angel's lineup a year ago, as he pitched to a 6.35 ERA against them. The Angels have thrived after a great pitching performance, as they are 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game. By the same token, the A's have been 3-8 in their last 11 when facing a team that allowed 2 or less in their previous game. The Angels have found comfort here, as they have won six of the last eight in Oakland. Play on the Angels in this one.
MLB | Apr 29 '13 (7:10p)
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Total
7 un+102 at 5dimes
15* NL Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nationals/Braves UNDER 7
There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. First and foremost, Atlanta is going to have a hard time scoring any runs against one of the best starters in baseball.
Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for Washington looking to improve upon his 1-4 start with a 3.16 ERA and 1.117 WHIP. He simply hasn't been getting any run support, which is the reason for his poor 1-4 record.
Julio Teheran had a great spring, but he got off to a slow start to the regular season for Atlanta. However, he is coming off his best start of the year, allowing just one earned run over 7 innings at Colorado on April 23rd.
In his last two starts against Atlanta, Strasburg has allowed a combined one earned run over 12 innings while striking out 17. Both teams are missing key hitters right now with the Braves playing without Jason Heyward and Brian McCann, and the Nationals without Ryan Zimmerman.
The UNDER is 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The UNDER is 9-4 in Strasburg's last 13 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 27-10-1 in Braves last 38 home games. The UNDER is 26-9-1 in Braves last 36 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
MLB | Apr 29 '13 (7:10p)
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Total
7 un-109 at 5dimes
15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Marlins UNDER 7
I look for a pitcher's duel tonight between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. Two of the most underrated starters in the league will be getting the ball tonight, and they'll be up against two of the worst line-ups in baseball.
Matt Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.686 WHIP through five starts this season. The youngster is clearly proving he is going to be the face of the franchise alongside David Wright for many years to come. Jose Fernandez is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.250 WHIP through four starts this season for Miami.
The Marlins have simply been atrocious at the plate this year. They are hitting .220 and scoring 2.7 runs/game on the season, including .190 and 2.4 runs/game at home. New York is hitting just .239 on the year.
Miami is 18-5 to the UNDER as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Marlins last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Marlins last 21 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
MLB | Apr 29 '13 (8:05p)
San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Total
9 un-114 at 5dimes
15* NL Non-Divisional PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres/Cubs UNDER 9
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the soft-hitting San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs. I look for a low-scoring, pitcher's duel in this one as two underrated starters will be getting the ball tonight.
Jeff Samardzija is one of the best young starters in the league. While he's only 1-4 this season, that's due to a lack of run support considering he has posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.102 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings.
Samardzija is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego. While Clayton Richard has struggled in the early going for San Diego, he is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.
The Cubs are hitting just .229 and scoring 3.3 runs/game this season, including .204 and 2.2 runs/game against left-handed starters. The Padres are hitting .244 and scoring 3.5 runs/game this year, including .234 and 3.2 runs/game on the road.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Richard's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Samardzija's last 7 starts vs. National League West. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.
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