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The Mariners look to follow up last night's 7-1 win and take advantage of a Houston team that is 2-11 in Bud Norris' last 13 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Seattle is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, APRIL 23
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.082; Washington (Detwiler) 15.398
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over
Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 16.203; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.814
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+135); Under
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Villanueva) 15.454; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.937
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Over
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.259; NY Mets (Niese) 15.512
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under
Game 909-910: Atlanta at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.822; Colorado (Garland) 16.732
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-125); Under
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.606; San Diego (Richard) 16.585
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over
Game 913-914: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 16.761; San Francisco (Cain) 16.222
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Over
Game 915-916: Oakland at Boston (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 14.799; Boston (Aceves) 16.510
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Under
Game 917-918: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davis) 16.149; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.579
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under
Game 919-920: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 15.566; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 14.565
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Over
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.050; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.550
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+150); Under
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.598; White Sox (Quintana) 14.874
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Over
Game 925-926: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.010; Houston (Norris) 13.219
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over
Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 15.523; LA Angels (Vargas) 15.949
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under
Game 929-930: Miami at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 13.407; Minnesota (Correia) 15.688
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Over
Game 931-932: Miami at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 14.512; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 14.205
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+115); Under
Game 933-934: Atlanta at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.768; Colorado (Francis) 16.994
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Jim Feist's FREE MLB Play for Tuesday, April 23, 2013
(925) SEATTLE MARINERS VS (926) HOUSTON ASTROS
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
A pair of bad offensive teams meet in Houston. Seattle is 25th in runs scored, 27th in on-base percentage with a team batting average of .218 (29th). At least they have Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound, with a 2-0 record and a 1.69 ERA. He's walked just 2 in 26+ innings and allowed 12 hits. Houston is also weak on offense, 15th in runs, 22nd in on-base percentage. The under is 10-2 in the Astros last 12 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play the Mariners/Astros under the total.
The White Sox have now lost four in a row while the Indians have won their last three. I think both streaks stop here tonight as Chicago gets back on track at home.
Jose Quintana looked rough in his first start of the year but hasn't given up an ER in his last 13 2/3 innings. Both Quintana and Zach McAllister started two games ago against today's opponent, and Quintana held the Indians hitless while McAllister wasn't quite as sharp.
With the home team needing to break out of their slump, I think they come to play today and pick up the win.
Every week we take a look at the hottest and coldest teams as well as the best over and under bets in major league baseball.
For the week of April 15-21.
Hot Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Last week: 6-0
Upcoming schedule: at Padres, at Dodgers
Skinny: The Brewers extended their winning streak to seven games with a 4-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Milwaukee has cut its team ERA nearly in half during the streak. Brewers pitchers had a 5.20 ERA in their first 10 games and boast a 2.80 ERA over their last seven.
Cold Team: Seattle Mariners
Last week: 1-5
Upcoming schedule: at Astros, vs. Angels
Skinny: The Mariners suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Texas Rangers over the weekend and were shut out twice in the series.
OVER Team: New York Mets
Last week: 5-1 OVER/U
Season: 13/4 OVER/U
Upcoming schedule: vs. Dodgers, vs. Phillies
Skinny: The Mets had played over the number in five straight before getting blanked 2-0 by the Nationals Sunday. New York is averaging 5.82 runs per game (2nd in MLB) and its pitching staff has a lofty 4.33 team ERA (23rd in bigs).
UNDER Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Last week: 0-6 O/UNDER
Season: 6-12 O/UNDER
Upcoming schedule: at Giants, vs. Rockies
Skinny: The Diamondbacks have gone low in seven straight games heading into a three-game set with the Giants beginning Monday.
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (WASHINGTON) below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
161-105 since 1997. ( 60.5% 60.2 units )
1-4 this year. ( 20.0% -3.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets
MLB TORONTO at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 54-36 (+30.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.0)
5 UNIT = I'll try to find this pick
(Note: I'm risking 5.00 units to win x.xx units)
2 UNIT = Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 8 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Villanueva vs Cingrani
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
Another heart breaking loss for the Cubs last night as they lead 2-0 before allowing Cincinnati to tie it 2-2 in the 7th. They then went into extra innings and the Cubs went up 4-2 in the top of 13th before allowing the Reds to score 3 runs in the bottom of the 13th for a walk off win. Tonight we will see two solid starting pitchers in Carlos Villanueva for Chicago and Tony Cingrani for the Reds. Villanueva is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over this three starts. He has allowed just 13 hits in 21 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and just 4 walks. His OBA is just .186 and his WHIP is a low 0.80. Southpaw Cingrani made his first Major League start last week going 5 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 8 getting credit with the victory. In Triple-A Cingrani was 1-0 over 3 starts with a 0.00 ERA as he struck out 26 and walked just 2. Take note that the Cubs are hitting just .196 as a team vs lefties with a .265 OBP. The UNDER is 12-2 in the Cubs last 14 road games vs a left handed starter, and 8-3 in their last 11 road games overall. When the Reds are a home favorite between -151 and -200 the UNDER is 7-2-1 in their last 10. Take the UNDER.
MLB Weather Watch: Playing Twice in Minnesota and Colorado
After Monday's postponement, the Marlins and Twins will play two on Tuesday as will the Rockies and Braves.
Here's the rest of Tuesday's MLB weather watch:
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins - Game one (-148, 7.5)
Site: Target Field
The wind will blow out to center field at 12 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-30s.
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins - Game two (-125, 7.5)
Site: Target Field
Temperatures will move into the high-30s for game two. Winds will still blow out to center field at 13 mph.
Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox (-117, 9)
Site: Fenway Park
Winds will blow in from center field at 14 mph, with a 64 percent chance of rain.
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers (-172, 7.5)
Site: Comerica Park
A 60 percent chance of rain with possible thunderstorms are in the forecast. The winds will blow in from center field at 11 mph. The Tigers were 4-1 in 2012 when the wind blew in from center field at home.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds (-158, 8)
Site: Great American Ball Park
A 27 percent chance of rain with possible thunderstorms are in the forecast. Winds will blow in from right field at 13 mph.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (+132, 6.5)
Site: Citi Field
Winds will blow in from center field at 12 mph. Temperatures in the low-50s.
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox (-114, 8)
Site: U.S. Cellular Field
A 50 percent chance of rain is expected in Chicago. Temperatures will be in the low-40s. Winds will blow out to right field at 16 mph.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies - Game one (n/a, n/a)
Site: Coors Field
Skies will be cloudy with freezing temperatures in the low-30s.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies - Game two (-113, n/a)
Site: Coors Field
Temperatures for game two will be similar to game one. There will be a 20 percent chance of snow.
Tuesday comp play will be to back the Dodgers as the road choice over the host Mets.
Yeah, stepping out on a limb here, but I am a big believer in the stuff of Clayton Kershaw and after coming off a rough outing his last time out, and the prospect of facing the sizzling Matt Harvey tomorrow night, this is the night Kershaw needs to step things up.
Kershaw has dominated the Metropolitans, winning each of his last 5 starts against New York while allowing just 2 earned runs in 35+ innings pitched. The southpaw has also fanned 36 Mets in that same span!
The Mets will go with Jonathon Niese who is coming off his first loss of the year, and is winless with an over 4 ERA in his pair of career starts versus the Dodgers.
Los Angeles swept a 3 game set at Citi Field last July, and I will back them tonight to get the "W" behind the strong pitching of Kershaw.