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Matt Moore is living up to his great potential this season, but I see a slight regression occurring. CC Sabathia remains good, but no longer is dominant. Neither pitcher has a good history against the team he is facing in this matchup.
So I don't believe it's too much to ask the Yankees and Rays - both of whom are hitting well - to score at least three runs apiece in this game, which at worst would get at least a push on this low American League total.
The Yankees are missing some key sticks, but still have managed to sock 21 homers, bat .293 and average 5.9 runs during their last 12 games. Tampa Bay is swinging the bats well, too, scoring six or more runs in four of its last five games.
Many pitchers don't like throwing at Tropicana Field. Sabathia is one of them. He's 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA in his previous eight starts at Tropicana Field. Evan Longoria is batting .359 against Sabathia.
Moore has a 5.06 career ERA in four starts versus the Yankees. He allowed 11 runs in 9 1/3 innings during two September starts against the Yankees last year. The Yankees are 7-1-1 to the over in their last nine road games.
100* Take Cincinnati -155 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago has lost 114 of the last 171 road games and they have lost 77
of the last 124 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs.
Chicago has lost 40 of the last 65 games when playing in the month of
April and they have also lost 86 of the last 132 games as an underdog
of +125 to -125.
100* Take Seattle -160 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Houston has lost 101 of the last 170 home games and they have also
lost 111 of the last 176 games when playing in the 1st half of the
season. Houston has lost 110 of the last 171 games vs. division
opponents and they have also lost 114 of the last 149 games when
playing as an underdog of +150 or higher.
100* Take Minnesota -140 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)
Miami has lost 63 of the last 97 games when playing as an underdog of
+125 to +175 and they have also lost 23 of the last 36 inter-league
games. Miami has lost 89 of the last 138 games after having lost four
or five of the last six games and they have lost 99 of the last 176
games when playing in the 1st half of the season.
Seattle is a road favorite with King Felix Hernandez on the hill, but they are not a good road team at 3-7. Even King Felix isn't getting it done, with the team 1-3 in his four starts. His ERA is better at home than on the road, which was the case last year, and the last three years he is just 18-19 away from home. That's because this Seattle offense is terrible at 26th in runs scored, 28th in on-base percentage and ranked 29th in slugging and batting average. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last five road games, 1-9 in Hernandez's last ten starts and 5-13 in Hernandez's last 18 starts during game 1 of a series. Houston has a better offense at 15th in runs score and 12th in slugging. Starter Brad Peacock has fanned 15 in 13+ innings while allowing only 11 hits. Houston is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with Seattle and the Mariners are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Houston. Play the Astros.
2 UNIT = Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox - ATHLETICS TO WIN (+122)
Listed Pitchers: Griffin vs Doubront
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.44 units)
Neither of these two teams had great weekends, although both have had good starts to their seasons. The Oakland A's were swept in Tampa Bay this weekend, but are still 12-7 on the season and 6-3 on the road. Boston dropped both games of a double header yesterday to go 1-2 over the weekend vs Kansas City, but they are 12-6 on the season and 5-4 at home. Tonight's starter for Oakland is A.J. Griffin who is 2-0 on the year with a 2.25 ERA, .222 OBA and 1.15 WHIP. Last year he was 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA on the road. Felix Doubront is the starting pitcher for Boston and he has two starts so far going 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA, .325 OBA and 1.70 WHIP. He has lasted just 5 innings in both starts. Last season he went 11-10 with a 4.86 ERA, .259 OBA and 1.45 WHIP. His ERA at Fenway was a high 5.33 last season with batters hitting .278 against him. Take note that these two teams met 9 times last year, and Oakland went 8-1 in those games. That includes a game where Griffin and Doubront squared off and Oakland won 7-1. The A's are 15-2 in Griffin's last 17 starts and 6-1 in his last 7 road starts. They are also 7-0 in their last 7 vs a left handed starter, which isn't too surprising if you look at their Major League best .407 OBP vs lefties. The Red Sox are just 6-20 in their last 26 vs AL West opponents and 1-5 in Doubront's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. I'll take Oakland at a nice price with a favorable pitching match up.
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels - RANGERS TO WIN (+102)
Listed Pitchers: Holland vs Blanton
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.04 units)
Two of the AL West's top teams will square off this week for their second series of the year. The Rangers enter 12-6 on the season and 5-4 on the road, and swept Seattle at home over the weekend. The Angels are coming off a sweep of their own vs the Tigers to improve to 7-10 on the year and 5-4 at home. These two teams met 3 times in Texas, with the Rangers taking 2 of the 3. Rangers starter tonight, Derek Holland, pitched in one of those games with the Rangers winning 3-2. Holland is 1-1 on the season with a 1.64 ERA, .171 OBA and 0.77 WHIP. In his last outing he went 7 innings giving up just 2 hits and 0 walks with 6 strikeouts. Despite being 1-1 Holland has been one of the best American League starters to date. In 2012 he was 6-3 with a 3.65 ERA on the road. The Angels send Joe Blanton to the rubber who is 0-3 on the season with a 8.59 ERA, .377 OBA and 2.05 WHIP. He has given up 26 hits in 14.2 innings of work, lasting 5 or less innings in all three starts. Last season he split time with the Dodgers and Phillies and had a 10-13 record with a 4.71 ERA. Take note that the Rangers are 35-17 in Holland's last 52 starts. They are also 5-2 in Holland's last 7 starts vs the Angels. Tonight we have one of the best AL starters so far against one of the worst. Give me Texas with Holland on the mound as an underdog.