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On Tuesday the Free MLB play is on the SF. Giants. Game 957 at 8:00 eastern. The Giants have several solid advantages in this one. They are scoring 6.6 runs the past week and are hitting.310. They are 5-0 the past 2+ years as a road favorite off a road win by 5 or more runs. In night games they are 4-0 and 6-2 off a win. The Brewers have been hit by the injury bug and are 0-6 in night games, scoring just over 2 runs per game. They have dropped 5 of 6 at home and are 1-5 vs winning teams. In games vs Left handers they are 1-4. Even their bullpen has been mediocre with a 5.11 home era. Tonight they will Send W. Peralta to the mound and he has allowed 7 runs over his first 2 starts spanning 12 innings while allowing 17 hits and walks. He will oppose a rejuvenated Barry Zito and his 85 mph fast ball. Zito has been stellar throwing 14 shut out innings to start the season and has quietly won 9 of his last 10 road starts. He is 3-1 in April road starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in 20 innings and he is 3-1 at Milwaukee. Based on all the data above we will recommend the SF. Giants as the free play.
Based on the way this season has started for the Reds it appears they are going to be going through a rebuilding year. Cincinnati does have a few key players on the DL so as we get deeper into the season the Reds may be able to snap out of this funk, but for right now the Phillies are the value play in this game. Philadelphia is 27-9 against the money line over the last two seasons when playing against a bad team whose win percentage is 38% to 46% on the season.
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season against opponent terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season
126-104 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.8% 56.4 units )
7-13 this year. ( 35.0% -3.9 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets
MLB SAN FRANCISCO at MILWAUKEE
SAN FRANCISCO is 37-19 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in Road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: SAN FRANCISCO (5.3) , OPPONENT (4.3)
Why we like the Braves RL on Tuesday at +120...going to continue to roll with this hot Braves team until they prove me wrong. The Braves have won their last nine games, with seven of those wins coming by at least two runs. When we take a look at how these two offenses have fared of late, the Royals have averaged 4.4 RPG while allowing 3.7 RPG over their last seven games while the Braves have averaged 5.1 RPG while allowing 1.1 RPG over their last seven games. The pitching in this game features two starters who either team has rarely seen which gives the Braves that edge with Medlen at home. Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals comes into this game after allowing 4 runs through 6 innings on 6 hits, 3 HRs and 2 Ks to the Twins IN Kansas City which plays very much like Turner Field. Kris Medlen of the Braves comes into this one after posting two quality starts against the Marlins & Phillies where he allowed a combined 2 runs through 12 innings on 9 hits, 0 HRs and 6 BBs. This Braves team has a combined 80 ABs off of Guthrie where they have a .263 average with 3 HRs while the Royals only have a combined 12 ABs off of Medlen. With the bullpens in the game may be playing a factor, we cannot overlook the fact that the Royals have a 4.07 road era through 17 innings with 2 HRs allowed while the Braves have a 1.80 home era through 20 innings with 0 HRs allowed. The key for this game will be the lack of Royals offense as of late, specifically only 4 HRs on the season. We match that lack of offense with Medlen yet to allow a HR this season and the Royals lack of experience against him. A key trend for this game is that the Royals are 0-2 after a day off this season as well as being 14-23 after a day off over the last three seasons while the Braves are 2-0 after a day off this season as well as being 25-11 after a day off over the last three seasons.
Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
When the Tribe sends erratic Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound against the Red Sox at Progressive Field Tuesday evening they will do so knowing he is 2-0 at home in his career team starts against Boston. With the Indians 8-4 the last 12 games in this park in this series, and Jimenez off a solid spring but rocky outing here in his last start, we'll look Tribe to hold the upper hand here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies
Colorado comes off their second series sweep of San Diego this season. After two weeks, the Rockies are the only team in baseball that is undefeated at home with a 3-0 record in their house. Colorado took the L4 contests vs. New York, a season ago. Currently, the team is posting an average of 5.42 RPG overall but when hosting, they score 6.67 RPG, outscoring visitors by 4.67 RPG. Their lineup possesses five sluggers hitting .300 or better, including three batters already in DDs in Home Runs, and five players with 13 or more hits. Today, Juan Nicasio takes the mound. The RH is 1-0 on the season, never facing NY in his career, but owns a lifetime 6-3 home mark. New York has one of the Majors highest-scoring teams in the League…HOWEVER, they faced four teams that are a combined 14-33, as three of those clubs are in last place and the other is a fourth place team. Murphy, Buck, and Wright are playing sold ball as supporting cast members, Tejada and Byrd are contributing as well. But the offense also has 85 Ks and only 6 SBs. Their pitching is mediocre, allowing 3.53 RPG while their defense has already committed 8 Errors. Dillon Gee gets the nod. The RH is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA. Last season, Gee had a road ERA of 5.16. The Rockies are 7-0 their L7 games played at home, 7-1 their L8 vs. RH starters, and 9-3 in Nicasio's L12 as a home fav. The Mets are 11-31 their L42 games vs. teams with a winning record, 5-16 their L21 games played as a 'dog, and 2-8 in Gee's L10 starts. Take Colorado.