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Since there's a fair amount of left handed starters, I will pass these along.
Texas has not hit a home run off a LHP yet this season.
Cleveland, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Oakland have scored the most runs off LHP. Last year almost all these teams were almost auto-fades against left handed starters. Two years ago for Atlanta. Adjustments.
The Phillies are hitting .141 against LHP. The Nationals are hitting .202.
The White Sox onlt have 25 AT BATS against left handed pitchers. The point-some teams have plenty of a sample size and some don't.
Texas at Cubs: Did I mention that Travis Wood throws left handed and that the Rangers hadn't hit one off a LHP yet. Clearly that would make me lean towards the under at night in what may be an inflated number due to the "Rangers" and "Wrigley". Berkman is 7-11 off of Wood. Ouch. Another reason the total might be high. Holland CAN get the ball up at times, but Texas' pen has been very good lately, and the Rangers' games on the road have been ONE over and five under.
Kansas City at Atlanta: Wonder how the Royals fare when Guthrie has to bat. Both teams 8-10 in IL play last year. Guthrie's been throwing strikes. The White Sox couldn't hit him but the Twins sure could. Many of the Braves have seen him, and not so much w/Medlen so we certainly have to lean Braves and their bullpen to keep that train rolling.
Detroit at Seattle: First thing of note is that Fister goes back to the team that traded him to the Tigers. It'd be interesting to see Casper Wells get the game winning hit. That's one of the people he was traded for Fister threw a seven inning shutout at Safeco last year, so perhaps he got THAT out of his system. Harang making his first start of the season and he's NOT a groundball pitcher. He was able to get away with that type of pitching in San Diego and Anaheim, and perhaps last year in Seattle, but the fences have been moved in somewhat, and I have a bad feeling about the Mariners here. The good news is that Cabrerra is 2-15 off of him, the bad news is that Fielder owns him, and the Tigers as a team are hitting .316 over the last week.
Other early observations:
Wind blowing out and warm in Camden Yards. But, Arrieta hasn't give up a long ball yet, and is much tougher on RHH's and the Rays will stack it with switch hitters and lefties. Fausto already faced the Orioles and didn't fare well. I think he make's the adjustments and the Rays win this game.
Boston at Cleveland: I do wonder how that shit in Boston effects the Red Sox. If the game was over at 2:00 they were probably still all in the area. Fenway is in ear-shot of the Finish Line. Since the Indians are now one of the better hitting teams against LHP, I would head in that direction. However, it's Ubaldo and honestly, Boston should be positively effected, especially getting out of town, and build of the great ninth inning win. Lean Boston.
White Sox at Toronto: This is the game that goes way over, IMO. White Sox are dead-red fastball hitters and Axelrod hasn't been able to keep the ball down. 100+ pitches in a little over three innings last start. If he aim the ball or trys to be cute here, it looks like the Toronto bats are waking up, and second game back for them. Also wouldn't surprise me to see bullpens used a fair bit later, since both Floyd's gone in the 5th and Buerhle's pitch count is up.
Wise baseball bettors always take April results with a grain of salt. Teams that explode out of the gate can fizzle and pop. And clubs slow out of the blocks can be in a full sprint come the summer.
We take a look at a few surprise starts to the 2013 MLB season and ask some Covers Experts whether bettors should buy or sell these April results.
BUY the BoSox’s successful start
Boston Red Sox (8-4, 3.50 units)
The Red Sox were supposed to take a backseat to the Jays and Rays in the American League East. However, Boston has already put the boots to those division rivals and sits atop the AL East after sweeping Tampa Bay this week.
“I'm a buyer on the Red Sox’s start,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril. “Pitching wins ballgames and right now Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester are pitching up to their potential. If you can hold a team down offensively, you only need two or three runs to win a game. David Ortiz hasn't even appeared yet in the regular season.”
SELL the Athletics’ Awesome Start
Oakland Athletics (9-4, +5.35 units)
The A’s made some noise at the end of the last year, sneaking in to win the American League West crown. And Oakland has picked up where it left off, but road wins over the Astros and Angels don’t mean much and the public has definitely caught up, sucking the value out of Oakland.
“Oakland is legit once again with a solid young pitching staff but I do not think it will be able to compete with the Rangers and Angels in the long run,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo. “The fact that it is 6-0 on the road means it may be time to sell.”
BUY the Brewers’ bad start
Milwaukee Brewers (3-8, -5.66 units)
The Brewers have fallen flat on their faces to start the season and our experts don’t expect things to turn around any time soon. Milwaukee’s lineup is riddled with injuries and the pitching staff ranks 29th in ERA. That’s cost Brew Crew bettors dearly in the opening month.
“Bad bullpens beget bad teams, and the Brewers pen is nothing short of awful again in 2013," says professional handicapper Teddy Covers. "Couple that with a struggling lineup and Milwaukee's early failures are something I'll be banking on in the weeks to come."
SELL the Angels slow start
Los Angeles Angels (4-8, -5.99 units)
The Halos came out cold for the second straight spring, winning only two games before going 2-1 at home to Houston this weekend. Los Angeles may have hit rock bottom with the injury to Jered Weaver, but this team has the bats to make up for its ace’s absence, and bettors should sell the Angels’ slow start.
“Now that they've gotten that season-opening slump out of the way, I think there will be some value backing the Halos,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “There's simply too much talent for this club to stay down for long.”
BUY/SELL Blue Jays’ bumpy start
Toronto Blue Jays (5-7, -3.59 units)
The jury is still out on the Blue Jays but Jose Reyes’ injury sure isn’t making it easy on Toronto bettors. The Jays may have bought into the hype heading into Opening Week and have mustered just five wins from their retooled roster. Most cappers are taking a wait-and-see approach with Toronto.
“I'm really on the fence with this Blue Jays team right now,” says a MLB handicapper for Doc’s Sports. “On one hand, they have all the talent on the roster to win the American League East. But on another hand, this feels eerily like the Miami Marlins last season, who added a bunch of big names only to fall flat on their faces amid the pressure. It's starting to feel like things are getting away from them.”
SELL the Rockies’ rocket start
Colorado Rockies (8-4, +4.69 units)
Colorado, which went 64-98 last season, is off to an 8-4 start in 2013. Six of those wins, however, have come against the San Diego Padres. The other two were against the aforementioned Brewers. The Rockies showed their true colors in a series sweep at the hands of the San Francisco Giants, who outscored Colorado 23-8 in those three games.
“Rockies fans are optimistic and they probably shouldn't be though,” says Covers Expert Jesse Schule. “When the Rockies face the National League’s better teams, they aren't going to enjoy the same success they have had against San Diego.”
SELL the Mets’ marvelous start
New York Mets (7-4, +2.05 units)
Perhaps the biggest shocker in the first two weeks of the season is the play of the Mets. New York was pegged as a MLB basement team but has taken the fight to its fellow cellar dwellers with series wins over the Padres, Marlins and Twins. Those opponents, though, should make bettors wary of just how good the Mets really are.
“The Mets will not be able to keep up in the National League East and they will definitely be a sell especially when the schedule toughens up,” says Fargo.
0 (967) TAMPA BAY RAYS VS (968) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Tampa Bay isn't hitting, 27th in runs scored, a poor .221 batting average (25th) as well as 25th in on-base percentage. The under is 19-6-2 in the Rays last 27 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore is on a 4-0 run under the total with great pitching depth and the under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. And when these teams meet the under is 39-19-2 in the last 60 meetings, including 9-3 under the total in the last 12 meetings in Baltimore. Play the Rays/Orioles under the total.
-- Westbrook is 1-1, 0.57 in two starts this season.
-- Zito is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in two starts this season.
-- Medlen is 1-1, 2.25 in two starts this season. Guthrie is 3-0, 3.37 in his last three outings.
-- Holland has a 2.40 RA in two starts this season. Wood is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts this season.
-- Griffin is 2-0, 2.37 in his last three starts. Peacock is 3-1, 2.25 in his four major league starts.
-- Former Mariner Fister is 2-0, 2.77 in two starts this season. Harang is 1-1, 1.72 in his last three starts, but they were all last year.
-- JSanchez is 0-2, 12.96 in two starts this season.
-- Bailey is 1-1, 5.73 in two starts this season. Kendrick is 1-1, 6.17 in two starts this season.
-- Haren is 1-1, 8.38 in two starts this season. Sanabia is 1-1, 4.91 in two starts this season.
-- Peralta is 0-1, 5.25 in two starts this season.
-- Francis is 1-1, 9.39 in two starts this season. Nicasio has a 4.91 RA in his first two starts this season. Gee is 2-6, 4.81 in his last eight starts. Laffey is 1-1, 5.81 in his last six starts.
-- Capuano is 1-4, 6.20 in his last eight starts. Marquis is 0-1, 5.73 in his two starts this season.
-- Nova is 1-3, 7.06 in his last six starts. McCarthy is 0-1, 9.26 in his first two Arizona starts.
-- JJohnson is 0-4, 6.49 in his last five starts. Axelrod is 0-1, 6.75 in two starts this season.
-- Doubrant is 1-5, 5.85 in his last nine starts. Jimenez is 0-1, 6.75 in his two starts this season.
-- Hernandez is 0-5, 7.68 in his last six starts. Arrieta is 0-0, 7.20 in two starts this season.
-- Vargas is 0-3, 4.14 in his last six starts. Pelfrey is 1-2, 5.75 in his last seven outings.
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of six games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Eight of eleven Met games went over the total.
-- Three of last four San Diego games went over the total.
-- Last three Bronx games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Medlen starts.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Texas games.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Last four Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Six of Angels' last eight games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last twelve Oakland games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Detroit games.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games. Pirates won five of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won four of their last six games.
-- Giants won five of their last six road games.
-- Mets won five of their last seven games. Colorado won eight of its last 11.
-- Bronx won five of its last six games. Arizona won three of its last four.
-- Braves won last nine games, allowing eight runs in last seven. Kansas City won five of its last seven games.
-- Rangers are 4-0 this month in game following a loss.
-- Blue Jays won three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Oakland won ten of its last twelve games.
-- Tigers won six of their last nine games.
-- Reds lost four of their last five games.
-- Nationals lost three of their last four games. Miami lost eleven of its first thirteen games.
-- Brewers lost their last five home games.
-- Padres lost ten of their first thirteen games. Dodgers lost three of last four.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Rays lost six of their last seven games. Orioles are 3-5 in their last eight.
-- White Sox lost six of their last seven games.
-- Indians lost six of their last nine games.
-- Minnesota lost five of their last six games. Angels lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Astros lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Mariners lost six of their last nine games.
The Diamondbacks look to take advantage of a Yankees team that is 0-4 in Ivan Nova's last 4 starts in Game 1 of a series. Arizona is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, APRIL 16
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.068; Pittsburgh (Sanchez) 16.468
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Haren) 15.452; Miami (Sanabia) 13.682
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Under
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.162; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.578
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+125); Over
Game 957-958: San Francisco at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 16.447; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.511
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Colorado (8:40 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Laffey) 15.220; Colorado (Francis) 16.215
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under
Game 961-962: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 14.860; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 14.500
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+165); Over
Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 15.186; Toronto (Johnson) 14.539
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under
Game 965-966: Boston at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 15.817; Cleveland (Jimenez) 14.629
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+100); Over
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.731; Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.182
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Under
Game 969-970: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 13.574; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.303
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over
Game 971-972: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 13.791; Oakland (Griffin) 17.074
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-210); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.391; Seattle (Harang) 15.790
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Under
Game 975-976: Arizona at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.830; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.361
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under
Game 977-978: Kansas City at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.243; Atlanta (Medlen) 17.574
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-185); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-185); Over
Game 979-980: Texas at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.773; Cubs (Wood) 14.920
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A
Game 981-982: NY Mets at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.479; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.162
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over