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James McDonald is having a great start to the season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He has a 3.75 ERA overall and a 1.29 ERA in his only home start this season. For the Cardinals Lance Lynn will get the start. Lynn is not having a great start to the season as he brings a 9.00 ERA on the road to this game.
McDonald has a history of success when playing against St Louis. He is 3-1 in his career with a 2.04 ERA and a 1.047 WHIP. Lance Lynn has not been quite as successful when playing against Pittsburgh. Lynn has a 4.70 ERA in his career against the Pirates.
The Pirates offense has been hot coming into this game against the Cardinals. They put up 10 runs against the Reds yesterday and they have won five of their last six games. The Cardinals are coming off an extra innings loss against Milwaukee and now have to travel to Pittsburgh to take on this red hot Pirates team.
Play On - Home teams (TORONTO) poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after a loss by 2 runs or less
151-97 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.9% 55.5 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.6 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets
MLB HOUSTON at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 26-9 (+17.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.9) , OPPONENT (3.5)
First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -125, Cincinnati +115, Total: 9
Red-hot Philadelphia looks to move above .500 for the first time this season when it begins a three-game set at slumping Cincinnati during Monday's league-wide Jackie Robinson Day celebration.
The Phillies have won four of their past five games, outscoring opponents 21 to 10 over this stretch and posting a miniscule 1.79 team ERA. Roy Halladay allowed just one run and five hits in eight strong innings in Sunday's 2-1 win over Miami. Meanwhile, the Reds dropped their final five contests of a six-game road trip on Sunday, as they blew a 5-0 lead in the seventh inning in Pittsburgh and lost 10-7. It might not get any easier playing a Phillies team that has won 18 of its past 22 meetings with Cincinnati (including playoffs). This includes a 7-1 record in the past eight games at Great American Ball Park, where Philly has outscored the Reds 34-12. The Phillies also have the decided pitching advantage on Monday with former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee opposing Cincinnati veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo.
The Philadelphia offense has been very average this season, ranking 17th in the majors in runs (48), 15th in batting (.258), 16th in on-base percentage (.314) and 15th in slugging (.406). The bats have been especially quiet on the road with a mere 10 runs (one homer) in the past five away games. 3B Michael Young (.357 BA) is the only regular hitting above .300 and 2B Chase Utley (10 RBI) is the only player with more than 6 RBI in the first 12 games of the season. Although the pitching is finally coming together, the Phils bullpen has struggled in 2013, posting a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP due to 17 walks in 33 innings.
Cliff Lee (2-0, 1.08 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) has been the team's best pitcher by a wide margin, allowing just two earned runs in 16.2 innings to start the season. He has struck out 14 batters and walked none in these two starts, holding opponents to a .167 BA and .267 slugging percentage. Lee has also been supported with 10 runs over his first two starts, something he didn't get much of last season when he threw 21 quality starts, but won just six games. The Phillies ended up with a 12-18 record (40%) in Lee's 30 starts in 2012. One of those outings was against the Reds, where he allowed just two earned runs with nine strikeouts over 6.2 innings despite Cincy banging out nine hits. Despite a 6-2 career record versus the Reds, he carries a below-standard 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in these 11 starts in the series. Two Cincinnati players have had great success versus Lee in their careers, as 1B Joey Votto has a .385 BA and .692 SLG in 13 at-bats, while 2B Brandon Phillips has hit .308 with three doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI and just one strikeout in 27 plate appearances. Lee has dominated OF Jay Bruce though, holding him to a .188 BA (3-for-16) with six strikeouts.
The Reds offense has been pretty potent so far in 2013 with 65 runs (5th in MLB) and a .342 on-base percentage (6th in majors). The offensive numbers have been off the charts in the past four games at Great American Ball Park, where they've scored 32 runs with 10 homers, a .325 BA, .373 OBP and .591 slugging. OF Shin-Soo Choo is loving his new club, leading them in both average (.354 BA) and runs (11), but veteran 2B Brandon Phillips has been the Reds' best hitter at .327 BA, 4 HR, 14 RBI and 10 runs. 3B Todd Frazier (.318 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI) is also on fire to start the season, and although star 1B Joey Votto is stuck on one home run, he's batting .289 with a league-best .542 OBP, thanks to 20 walks, which are nine more than any other player in the majors. Cincinnati's pitching has been problematic though, carrying a 4.54 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in the first 12 games this season. This includes subpar bullpen numbers of 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, as Reds relievers have served up seven homers in 37.1 innings.
Bronson Arroyo (1-1, 5.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) hasn't pitched his best, but he has kept his team in both of his starts, allowing three runs in six innings in the opener, then giving up four runs in six innings in his most recent outing in St. Louis. The Reds had an 18-14 record (56%) with Arroyo on the mound last season, including 9-5 (64%) at home, where Arroyo had a pedestrian 3.98 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. However, the right-hander's career numbers versus Philly are downright awful over 11 career games (10 starts), as he carries a 2-7 record with a 6.55 ERA and 1.51 WHIP against Monday's opponent. Arroyo was able to end an 11-year win drought versus this club last year though, when he allowed just two runs on three hits over eight strong innings, striking out four and walking nobody in that victory. All four of Philly's regular players with more than 10 career at-bats against Arroyo have posted strong numbers against the right-hander. SS Jimmy Rollins is 6-for-18 with 2 HR and 5 RBI, 2B Chase Utley and 3B Michael Young are both batting .313 (5-for-16), and 1B Ryan Howard is 4-for-14 (.286 BA) with two doubles and a homer off Arroyo.
2 UNIT = San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers - PADRES TO WIN (+170)
Listed Pitchers: Stults vs Billingsly
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.40 units)
These two teams meet for the first time since the "Grienke Brawl" that put the Dodgers ace out for a number of weeks and got Carlos Quentin suspended for eight games. With that said I don't see much happening tonight. The Padres are just 2-10 on the season and 1-5 on the road as they've lost 5 straight games heading into tonight. The Dodgers are 7-5 on the year and 4-2 at home, but lost their weekend series in Arizona being shutout twice. Although the Dodgers have a better team batting average and OBP than the Padres they have only scored 34 runs in 12 games played, while the Padres have scored 39 in the same number of games. The Dodgers are 28th in runs scored so far in this young season. San Diego will send Eric Stults to the mound. He is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA so far this year. He gave up 0 earned runs in New York striking out 7 and walking 2 and then gave up 8 hits and 4 earned runs striking out 4 and walking none against the Dodgers. In 2012 he had a solid 2.91 ERA and he was 4-2 with a 2.54 ERA, .237 OBA, and 1.11 WHIP on the road. Dodgers starter will be Chad Billingsley who has just one start this year and it was in San Diego. He went 6 innings giving up 5 hits and 1 run with 3 strikeouts and 3 walks. Last season he pitched to a 3.55 ERA but was just 3-4 at home with a 4.32 ERA, .288 OBA, and 1.52 WHIP. Take note that these two starting pitchers faced off on the 10th of April with the Dodgers winning 4-3. The Dodgers did win 2 of the 3 games, but both wins were by 1 run and the Padres outscored the Dodgers 14-10 in the series. Take note that the Dodgers are 5-1 in Stults' last 6 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. They are also 7-2 in his last 9 starts overall. From last season the Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles and tonight with Stults on the mound I think they have a good shot at getting the first game victory. At +170 I'll go with the San Diego tonight.