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MLB: Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
Pick:PittsburghStart: April 12, 2013 - 7:05 PM Capper:Marc Lawrence Offered atinnacle @ -104 PittsburghAnalysis:
Play On: 1* Pittsburgh w/Burnett vs Leake
Note: When the Pirates send A. J. Burnett to the mound against Mike Leake and the Reds Friday night at PNC Park, Pittsburgh will do so knowing Burnett is 4-1 at home with a 2.12 ERA in his career teams starts against Cincinnati.
On the flip side Leake enters with a dismal 1-5 career team start mark in the Steel City. With that look for Burnett to improve to 14-4 in his last 18 home teams starts during the month of April here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh. Thank you and good luck as always.
Giants at Cubs: Surely with the wind expected to be blowing out at 17 MPH, today's game with bullpens all but shot, even with the chill in the air this total will be a big number. But, with Cain on the mound perhaps too high. Villanueva's numbers in the Braves game looked decent on the surface, but he gave up 13 flyball outs. In Turner Field you can get away with that. Cain gave up 12 flyball outs (to three groundball outs) against St. Louis. After a rough start, the Giants pen has been stellar the last week, so it'd be hard to take the Cubs here. Lean Giants and under.
Reds at Pirates: I usually look at "overs" in games Leake pitches, simply because he's such a great hitting pitcher. Both teams a day off. Pirates take two of three from Arizona, while Reds lose two of three at St. Louis. Leake was torched by the Nationals and Pittsburgh has hit him very well from top to bottom, and since the Pirates pen has been great (WHIP under 1.00 this season), and Burnett has pitched well in his two losses, it's the Pirates or nothing.
Atlanta at Washington: Braves a day off while the Nationals play the White Sox, so clear advantage in the back end to the Braves, not that there wasn't already. Teheran was dominant in AAA but has fallen on hard times and cannot keep that 95 MPH fastball down at time, but he's got great upside. Possible advantage early on because Washington hasn't seen him. Dewtiler looked great against the Reds, and is exactly the type of pitcher that gives Atlanta trouble. Love to be able to take Atlanta here, given the rest situation, but I can't. Not unless something happen in the Nats game against the White Sox to change my mind. Given that the Braves are rested I would think that Teheran is on a short leash, so lean Nationals and under.
Philadelphia at Miami: Fish have scored more than three runs once in nine games, and shutout by Atlanta two of the last three. Perhaps they're day off can help them regroup. Stanton has been a non-factor, and teams aren't even pitching around him. Phillies ten or more hits three of the last four games. Lannan a classic game for him against the Royals with 18 ground ball outs, and I have to think that the young Fish won't adjust to him living on the outside of the plate, either. Nolasco making his third start, first one at home, and off a 100+ pitch game. Was a little surprised to see the Phillies only -125 or so, actually, given that they've seen plenty of Nolasco. Simply cannot trust Miami's pen, but, they did improve at home against the Braves. It'd be hard to do anything but take the under in this park, especially given that it looks like the game COULD be closer than most would expect.
Milwaukee at St. Louis: Is this total sitting at 8 tempting, especially with the wind blowing out (probably) fairly hard. Almost too easy. Lohse going against the team he pitched for for the last five years. It's been a long time, but it's almost sad how badly Beltran owns him, and Holliday is 5-9 off of him. Tough to pitch around both of them. Miller is a hard throwing kid, and I do mean "kid" at 22. He walked four against the Giants, but perhaps at home he settles down. Only allowed two hits in eight innings late last year at Busch, so I'd have to think the Cardinals are the right side here. Again, not touching the Brewers and their pen on the road.
Dodgers at Arizona: Certainly some disrespect here for Corbin and/or the D-Backs losing two of three to the Pirates, making Kershaw -150 on the road. The Dodgers have seen Corbin, but did nothing, and his numbers at home were actually better than on the road last season, so he appears to have no issues w/Chase, yet. With that in mind, and not even looking at Kerhsaw, there is no chance of laying -150 here (for me) whatsoever. Lean under, of course, in any Kershaw game with a total of eight.
Colorado at San Diego: Even though the Padres lost to the Dodgers in the last game, they did have eleven hits, and Quentin is expected to play, so without too much adieu, leaning Padres. But, the two caveats here are obviously that the Padres don't have Thursday off like Colorado does, and they just hit Ross pretty hard in Colorado. Usually, the second time around it's advantage pitcher, in this case. And Garland just threw six solid ground-ball innings against the Padres in Colorado. Lean to the Padres and the over.
Baseball bettors are told to take April with a grain of salt. The MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint, and teams are still rounding into form in the first month of the schedule.
There are, however, some starts that can’t be ignored, and the MLB futures market has reflected that. We talk to sportsbooks across Nevada and get the scoop on which clubs are drawing early action and forcing oddsmakers to adjust their prices.
Oakland Athletics (7-2, +5.02 units)
The A’s caught everyone off guard with their late-season push last summer, winning the American League West. Oddsmakers expected Oakland to drop off in 2013 but the Athletics keep on winning, jumping out to a hot start that has forced books to trim their futures.
William Hill Sportsbooks in Nevada opened Oakland at +550 to win the AL West but are now dealing the A’s at +400 to repeat as division champs. In Reno, which has a rabid fan base for Bay Area baseball, the Athletics’ World Series odds have dropped from +1,600 to +700 after Opening Week.
“Our guests always bet the A’s down,” Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook manager at Atlantis Casino in Reno. “I had to lower them because they’re playing so well right now. I thought that pitching staff would take a step back but they haven’t. And Oakland is hitting the ball too.”
Atlanta Braves (8-1, +6.78 units)
The Braves look like the best team in baseball out of the gates, suffering only one loss in their first nine games. Atlanta can make a huge statement against the Washington Nationals – the National League favorites – this week.
The Braves’ World Series odds have remained steady but their divisional price has been trimmed from +200 to +160 heading into Friday’s series opener with the Nationals, who are -110 favorites to win the NL East.
“We’ve taken more money on Atlanta to win the division than to win the World Series, right now,” veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill.
Los Angeles Angels (2-6, -4.60 units)
The Halos’ slow start has already dug quite a pit for L.A. bettors. The Angels were hoping their home opener could spark the club, but Oakland proved it was still the team to beat in the AL West. Perhaps an upcoming three-game set with the Astros can cure what ails the Angels?
Books have adjusted Los Angeles’ World Series futures price from +400 to +700 since Opening Day, a big part of that coming after ace Jered Weaver suffered a broken elbow in his non-throwing arm which will sideline him for up to six weeks.
“Weaver going down is a huge hit and they have some issues with that pitching staff right now,” says Mikkelson.
Kansas City Royals (6-3, +3.40 units)
The Royals were as high as 60-1 this winter but have been bet down to 25-1 at most markets. Kansas City took two of three from Philadelphia and swept AL Central rival Minnesota heading into a three-game home set with Toronto Friday.
This could be the year Kansas City competes in the division, with Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago all chasing Detroit. According to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, the Royals have been a popular early-season bet in recent years.
“We’ve taken quite a bit of action on them in past years,” Stoneback. “People always think they’re going to be good this year and it doesn’t pan out.”
Free MLB Prediction from Doc's Sports: #967 Take Baltimore Orioles +130 over New York Yankees (Friday, 7:05pm ET) This isn't the same New York Yankees team that that we've grown accustomed to seeing on the field over the last several years. Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are all injured, and gone from the team are Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez and Russell Martin. The current lineup clearly isn't as dangerous, and they're relying on their pitching to keep them above water until their injured stars come back from the disabled list. Under normal circumstance, CC Sabathia would be one such pitcher that the Yanks could rely on. But he wasn't right during the spring, and that has carried over into the regular season as well. Sabathia's fastball velocity is down 2-3 miles per hour, and his pitches aren't moving as much as usual. He's walked seven batters in his first 12 innings of work and just doesn't look comfortable on the mound. He'll go up against the ace of the Baltimore Orioles Jason Hammel. The right-hander has had some struggles of his own in his first two outings, but his stuff still looks good, and there's no reason to believe that it's just an anomaly. The Orioles have a more potent offense than the Yankees do at this point and have an edge on the mound with the way that Sabathia is struggling out there. As a result, I like the Orioles today at this price.
-- Detwiler is 0-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Lannan is 4-1, 4.08 in his last seven starts.
-- Lohse is 4-1, 3.38 in his last eight starts. Miller is 1-0, 1.54 in two career starts for St Louis.
-- Kershaw is 2-0, 0.00 in two starts this year (16 IP). Corbin is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Garland is 1-1, 2.95 in his last three starts.
-- Mets won both Niese starts this year (1-0, 2.84).
-- Masterson is 2-0, 0.69 in two starts this season.
-- MGonzalez is 4-0, 1.91 in his last five starts. Sabathia is 1-1, 3.00 in his two starts this season.
-- Cobb is 3-0, 0.93 in his last three starts.
-- Happ is 3-1, 2.83 in his last five starts. Mendoza is 1-1, 2.53 in his last five starts.
-- Colon is 5-1, 2.45 in his last six starts. Scherzer is 2-0, 3.08 in his last five.
-- Darvish is 2-0, 1.98 in two starts this season. Iwakuma is 1-0, 2.57 in two starts this season.
-- Giants are 0-2 when Cain starts this season (0-1, 8.38). Villanueva is 0-3, 6.75 in his last six starts.
-- Burnett is 0-2, 3.27 in two starts this year; Pirates scored once in the two games. Leake is 1-2, 6.25 in his last six starts.
-- Teheran is 1-1, 5.79 in five career starts.
-- Nolasco is 0-1, 3.97 in two starts this season.
-- Ross is 0-4, 8.38 in his last four starts.
-- Worley is 0-1, 6.55 in his first two starts for Minnesota.
-- Quintana is 0-2, 9.53 in his last four starts.
-- Doubrant is 1-4, 5.40 in his last seven starts.
-- Norris is 1-1, 5.91 in two starts; he threw 122 pitches Saturday. Hanson is 2-5, 6.00 in his last nine starts.
-- Five of last six San Francisco games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Washington games went over the total.
-- Seven of nine Philly games went over the total.
-- Seven of eight Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Arizona games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven San Diego games.
-- Seven of nine Met games went over the total.
-- Last three Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in first eight Bronx games.
-- Five of last six Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Toronto games went over the total.
-- Last nine Oakland games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Texas games.
-- Giants won four in row, seven of their last nine games.
-- Braves won eight of their first nine games. Washington won its first six home games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last six games. Arizona won five of seven.
-- Bronx won its last three games, scoring 32 runs. Orioles won three of their last four road games.
-- Royals won last four games, scoring 22 runs.
-- Rangers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Oakland won its last eight games. Detroit is 3-0 in series openers.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Pirates lost five of last seven games. Reds lost last two games by combined score of 15-1.
-- Miami lost eight of its first nine games. Phillies are 0-3 in series openers.
-- Brewers lost six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado lost last three games, outscored 23-8. Padres lost seven of their first nine games.
-- Minnesota lost last three games, outscored 13-5. Mets are 3-4 in their last seven games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last seven games. Indians lost five of their last six games.
-- Red Sox are 3-4 in their last seven games. Rays lost three of last four.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their first nine games.
-- Houston is 2-6 in last eight games, but did win last two. Angels lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine games.