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Reds at Cardinals: Bailey looked great against the Nationals, and I know that because they won the game 15-0 and we had Washington. I do wonder how much of that was the situation, and now he goes against a team that fared quite well against him. Westbrook threw a ton (116 to be exact) of pitches against the Giants, and the way the Giants have been hitting that's hard to do. Having said that, and given that it's a warm day game with a potentially decent breeze helping, it's hard not to like the over here. Tuesday's game and lineup pending, of course.
Pittsburgh at Arizona: Just saw the lines and was hoping Miley would be less, but against Sanchez I suppose it's only natural to be at lest -150. Perhaps the most impressive thing about this kid is that his numbers at home have actually been better than on the road, which in Chase is just not that easy. Sanchez ONLY walked one against the Dodgers, but in doing so he had to put the ball over the plate, and of course the Dodgers hit it. Rarely would I play a RL but this may be one of those rarely times. The Pirates are hitting .083 against LHP this season.
Colorado at San Francisco: Two of the most hittable pitchers facing each other, Francis outside of Coors Field he ONLY allowed the opposition to bat .292 last year. This could be where the Giants wake up at the plate, since most of them have hit him hard. Zito was impressive against the Cardinals, but he did give up a lot of flyball outs and threw over 100 pitches. He's fared reasonably well against most of the Rockies big bats, it's the little ones that have given him trouble. With a decent helping breeze to right you almost have to think this goes over 7.5, especially in a day game. I will wait for lineups, as we always should, but more so on day-after-night games.
Mets at Phillies: Kendrick has been one of those pitchers I have been wrong on more than right. Since the Royals lit him up one would assume the Mets would, especially given that the Mets hit RHP better than LHP. But, of course it won't be that easy because only Wright has hit him at all. He's hit Kendrick well, but will need SOME help. Hugh Hefner is the only pitcher (unless Medlen does) that's given up more than three runs to Miami, so one would think the Phillies would score. BUT, that was the Mets bullpen who gave it up, not Hugh. He did fare somewhat better, at least from an ERA standpoint, on the road last season. Very warm in Philadelphia on Wednesday night with a slight helping breeze, but at 8.5 an NL total really needs to stick out for me to play it. At this point I have no strong opinion on the side, although if the Mets pen is used much on Tuesday, I'd have to think about Philadelphia.
Atlanta at Miami: Interesting that perhaps the Braves best starter is the cheapest Atlanta has been this series. Stanton does have two bombs off the kid, but Giancarlo has been a bit lost lately. It's not teams simply pitching around him, either. Sanabia didn't give up runs to the Mets, but he did give up what I'd call an inordinate number of flyball outs. The Braves haven't seen the kid, so that could be advantage Marlins and a nice first five inning bet, perhaps. Obviously we trust the Braves pen a lot more, although Kimbrel did look almost hittable on Monday. This could be one of those "sooner or later" bets on the Fish, especially with that total tomorrow a half run higher than on Tuesday with essentially better pitchers.
Milwaukee at Chicago: Feldman is just the type of junk right handed pitcher that could give the Brewers issues, I would think. Certainly after the shelling and the number of pitches he threw in Atlanta, that'd be hard bet to make, though. But, given the lack of familiarity it's not out of the question. Lohse looked pretty good against the hot hitting D-backs, but the Cubs have had their way with him, and refer to earlier post where it's simply not possibly to take the Brewers and their bullpen on the road. Cubs and/or over.
Dodgers at Padres: Gave out the Padres on Tuesday as a twitter play, and see that they have the early lead. Billingsley is sneaky good, but he is coming of the DL to make his first start, which is typically an auto fade. However, he has owned San Diego and has been much better on the road over the years. Since Stults isn't going to over power people he's going to need to keep his 88 MPH fastball down. He's going to be a feast or famine pitcher, IMO. His outing against the Mets was exactly the type of game he needs to pitch, and that's getting ground ball outs, hence he'll need good defense behind him as well. He did beat the Dodgers in LA last season, but he's going to give up hits, that's just a given. As a home dog, essentially, with Chad coming off the DL, you have to at least give San Diego a look, and I do lean to the under here, especially if it goes to 7, which I think it might.
Toronto at Detroit: I did have an immediate lean to this over (again) but it is looking like cold and shitty weather in Detroit tomorrow. Today's game could have had even more runs, were it not for some ropes right at people and a great catch by Don Kelly (which was when I knew we were screwed). I have never been a big Porcello fan, and the Jays have torn him a new one, so given that Detroit had to use more relief pitchers than they wanted to, I lean Jays. Once bitten, twice shy. Buerhle was hit pretty hard by the Indians last week, and the Tigers have certainly seen plenty of him from his days with the White Sox. He's fared well against both Fielder and Miguel, but the rest of the Tigers, not so much. If this were at all a nice day, it looks like they'd score 15. The only thing keeping this at 8.5 is the weather, and part of me wonders if that's enough to keep the ball in the park tomorrow. But, as I type it's gone to 9 most places. At 9 O (+100) it's probably worth a look.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 0.35 in his last four starts. Westbrook is 0-2, 3.18 in his last three outings.
-- Miley is 1-0, 2.63 in his last couple starts.
-- Zito is 8-0, 1.84 in his last nine starts. Francis is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two.
-- Hefner is 2-0, 1.33 in his last three starts.
-- Minor is 5-0, 0.94 in his last six starts. Sanabia is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Lohse is 2-1, 3.42 in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley was 2-0, 1.47 in his last three starts LY, but has been fighting a blister problem this spring. Stults is 6-1, 2.66 in his last eight starts.
-- Floyd is 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts.
-- Moore is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
-- Milone is 1-0, 2.66 in his last four starts. Blanton is 1-1, 3.24 in his last three outings.
-- Beavan is 3-1, 1.73 in his last four starts. Peacock is 2-1, 1.20 in three MLB starts (total 15 IP).
-- JSanchez is 0-7, 10.73 in his last seven starts.
-- Kendrick is 2-3, 5.47 in his last five starts.
-- Feldman is 0-1, 9.53 in his last three starts.
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 5.28 in his last three starts.
-- Buehrle is 1-1, 5.00 in his last four starts. Porcello is 1-2, 5.92 in his last five starts.
-- Holland is 1-1, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 1-3, 7.06 in his last six starts. Indians had not announced a starter for tonight, as of 4am.
-- Arrieta is 0-0, 11.68 in his last three starts. Dempster is 1-3, 7.23 in his last five starts.
-- Hendriks is 1-1, 5.73 in his last seven starts. Davis is 1-2, 5.87 in his last four starts.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Billingsley starts.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Philly games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Six of eight Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Washington games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in first eight Bronx games.
-- Last three Arrieta starts went over the total.
-- Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Hendriks starts.
-- Seven of last nine Moore starts went over the total.
-- Last seven Oakland games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Houston games went over the total.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.
-- Cincinnati won five of its last seven games. Cardinals won three of four.
-- Mets won three of their last four games.
-- Braves won seven of their first eight games.
-- Pirates won last two games, scoring eleven runs.
-- Colorado/Giants won five of their last seven games.
-- Washington won its last four home games, allowing eight runs.
-- Detroit won three of its last four games.
-- Bronx win its last three games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Boston won five of its first seven games.
-- Royals won five of their last six games.
-- Rangers won six of their last seven games.
-- Oakland won its last six games; they're 4-0 on road.
-- Padres lost five of their first seven games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last six games. Milwaukee lost six of last seven.
-- Phillies lost five of their last eight games.
-- Miami lost seven of its first eight games.
-- Arizona lost three of its last four road games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their first seven games.
-- Indians lost five of their last six games.
-- Orioles lost their last three games, scoring nine runs.
-- Twins lost their last two games, scoring five runs.
-- Tampa Bay lost last three games, outscored 24-5.
-- Angels lost five of their last six games.
-- Mariners lost five of their last seven games. Astros lost six of their last seven games.
-- NY-Phil-- Home side is 21-10 in Hirschbeck's last 31 games.
-- Atl-Mia-- Five of last seven Scott games stayed under total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Six of Layne's last eight games went over the total.
-- Cin-StL-- Underdogs won eight of last ten Nelson games.
-- Pitt-Az-- Six of last eight Darling games stayed under the total.
-- LA-SD-- Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine Conroy games.
-- Col-SF-- Favorites won last six games with Diaz behind plate.
-- Tor-Det-- Under is 6-2-1 in Demuth's last nine games behind plate.
-- NY-Clev-- Underdogs are 9-6 in last fifteen McClelland games.
-- TB-Tex-- Over is 11-5-1 in TWelke's last seventeen games.
-- Balt-Bos-- Six of last eight Blaser games went over the total.
-- Minn-KC-- Last nine O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Oak-LAA-- Six of last eight Knight games stayed under total.
-- Hst-Sea-- Visiting team won seven of last nine Bell games.
The Padres look to build on their 7-0 record in Eric Stults' last 7 starts against a team with a winning record. San Diego is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.576; St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.370
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Over
Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Sanchez) 14.971; Arizona (Miley) 16.153
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-175); Under
Game 955-956: Colorado at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.862; San Francisco (Zito) 17.186
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 15.479; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.427
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over
Game 959-960: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.658; Miami (Sanabia) 14.432
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 13.867; Cubs (Feldman) 13.692
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); N/A
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.325; San Diego (Stults) 15.732
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); Over
Game 965-966: Toronto at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 13.892; Detroit (Porcello) 16.182
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.828; Texas (Holland) 16.528
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 13.960; Cleveland (Myers) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Under
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.770; Boston (Dempster) 16.004
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 15.987; Kansas City (Davis) 15.363
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+125); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Millone) 15.615; LA Angels (Blanton) 15.851
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Under
Game 977-978: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 13.959; Seattle (Beavan) 14.910
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Over
Game 979-980: Chicago White Sox at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.202; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.720
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Under
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