cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/05/2011 07:32 PM

Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles dream season has been a nightmare so far as they play another tough game at the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. FOX will broadcast at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Eagles opened as 3-point road favorites, but currently range from one to 3-point ‘chalk’ at Don Best. The NFL betting total started at 48 ½-points, but is now 49 ½-50 across the board.

Backup quarterback Vince Young labeled his Eagles a ‘dream team’ after several high-profile offseason acquisitions (including him). The biggest names were on defense with cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, plus linemen Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins.

The defense is still trying to mesh, ranking 30th in the NFL against the run (139.5 YPG) and tied for 23rd in points allowed (25.3 PPG). The latest indignity was blowing a 21-3 lead at home against San Francisco last week, allowing the normally mediocre Alex Smith to throw for 201 yards in the second half. Two missed fourth-quarter field goals also really hurt the Eagles.

Philadelphia (1-3 straight up and against the spread) has now lost three straight games after an opening 31-13 win at St. Louis and needs to worry about just getting a victory instead of any Super Bowl thoughts.

Mike Vick threw for a career-high 416 yards last game, 171 of them to receiver DeSean Jackson. The previous injury on his non-throwing hand didn’t seem to bother Vick, but he did hurt his finger and is listed as probable for Sunday.

The Eagles’ running game is second in the NFL at 163.5 YPG, but that’s in large part due to Vick’s 228 scrambling yards. LeSean McCoy has 363 rushing yards and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, but the offensive line just isn’t physical enough to pound the ball at the goal line or other short yardage attempts.

Philly is also being hurt in the red zone with just eight touchdowns in 21 attempts (38 percent, ranked 23rd). Four red-zone turnovers have really hurt.

The Eagles now return on the road (1-1 SU and ATS) where they beat St. Louis and lost to Atlanta (35-31) in the first two games. Philly led Atlanta 31-21 but got outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter with Vick injured on the sideline. The team has been outscored 36-0 in the final stanza over the last three games and has lost its swagger.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Philly’s road games this year and 10-1 in the last 11 away overall.

The Bills (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) saw their surprising start hit a roadblock with a 23-20 loss at Cincinnati last week as 3-point favorites. They actually led the game 17-3 at halftime, but imploded with a 20-3 deficit from there.

Coach Chan Gailey’s offense generated just 273 total yards with those 20 points. That’s far below the first three games of 431 YPG and 37.7 PPG. The ‘over’ is 4-0 on the year, just squeaking above the 42 ½-point total last week.

The Bills now return home to Ralph Wilson Stadium where they’re 2-0 SU, but not without heart palpitations. They turned 21-3 and 21-0 deficits versus Oakland and New England into 38-35 and 34-31 wins. The Oakland game was a failure to ‘cover’ as 3 ½-point favorites, while they were 7-point ‘dogs versus New England.

Defensively, Buffalo ranks just 24th against the pass (275.5 YPG) and 25th against the run (129.5 YPG). Controlling Vick and the skill position players won’t be easy even with Philly missing injured left tackle (and former Bill) Jason Peters.

Running back Fred Jackson should get plenty of work this week with Eagles defensive tackle Antonio Dixon (tricep) out for the year. He was their best run stopper, while getting little help from the struggling linebackers. Trent Cole (calf) is out and fellow defensive ends Darryl Tapp (knee) and Juqua Parker (ankle) are questionable, adding to the woes.

Controlling the ball with Jackson, the league’s fourth leading rusher (369 yards), will help keep Vick on the sidelines. It also allows quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to keep his pass attempts under 35 where they belong.

These teams haven’t met since 2007 and have hooked-up only three times since 1999 (the ‘under’ 3-0).

Weather is expected to be sunny and in the 70s, extremely warm for upstate New York this time of year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/05/2011 07:33 PM

Kansas City Chiefs Visit Winless Indianapolis Colts

The Chiefs have won just one of their last 10 encounters with the Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs only have one victory between them this year, but one of the two will put a notch in the win column on Sunday when they meet up at Lucas Oil Field. Week 5's kickoff from Indianapolis is slated for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

It's hard to think that both the Colts (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) and Chiefs (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) were division winners a season ago. They are both heading for Top 5 picks in the NFL Draft, and the argument could be made that the loser of this one is in a lot better shape than the winner. The loser will clearly have an inside track towards getting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.

There are definitely some bright spots for both of these teams, though.

Kansas City is coming off its best game of the season, a 22-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Matt Cassel had his best game so far, throwing for 260 yards and a TD, and he is really taking advantage of a respectable and dynamic set of receivers.

The Colts and their Cover 2 scheme could have some problems trying to stick with all of these options. Dwayne Bowe has had three straight solid games after a sluggish start to the campaign, including last week when he had five grabs for 107 yards and a score. Steve Breaston is the deep threat of the bunch, and he has averaged 17.9 YPR this year.

Don't forget about Dexter McCluster either. The diminutive back out of Ole Miss has 164 yards on the ground and 52 through the air, and he is a threat to score every single time he touches the ball.

Still, the Chiefs only have four offensive touchdowns for the entire season, and without the injured Jamaal Charles in the lineup, there is definitely an element missing to this team.

The Colts are still winless, but at least they've stuck in front of the NFL odds in both of their last two games, each a prime-time broadcast.

We've always known that defense was a problem for Indianapolis, thus it is no surprise that this squad ranks No. 25 in the league at 390.2 YPG allowed and No. 28 in scoring at 27.0 PPG allowed.

However, the real Achilles heel right now is the offense, which has only been good for 270.0 yards and 15.8 points per game. Curtis Painter is only completing 43.9 percent of his passes, but he did hook up with Pierre Garcon for two long touchdown passes in last week's loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Painter still has some weapons to choose from, as Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie still make up a formidable bunch.

This is the fourth time since the 2007 playoffs that these two teams have locked horns, and all of those meetings have come in Indianapolis. The Colts are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the previous three outings.

Dating back to 1996, Kansas City is only 2-8 ATS and 1-9 SU against Indianapolis.

The NFL betting lines for this week have opened up with the Colts favored by a single point. That spread has since risen as high as 2 ½. The total is relatively low at 38 ½.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/05/2011 07:36 PM

Week 5 Preview: Raiders at Texans

OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-2)

at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -5.5, Total: 49.5

Two AFC teams on the rise meet up Sunday in Houston when the 3-1 Texans host the 2-2 Raiders.

The healthy return of RB Arian Foster is terrible news for an Oakland run defense that’s been gashed all year, allowing 136 YPG (fourth-most in NFL) and 5.9 yards per carry. Foster ran for 155 yards against a far better Pittsburgh defense in Week 4, and his presence outweighs the absence of WR Andre Johnson (hamstring). The Texans franchise is 5-1 (SU and ATS) against the Raiders all-time, winning last year’s meeting 31-24 in Oakland without Johnson. In that game, Foster ran for 133 yards on just 17 carries (7.8 YPC), as Houston rushed for 249 yards on 6.9 YPC. With the Raiders defense also subpar against the pass (274 YPG, 22nd in league), the pick here is HOUSTON to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports picking the Texans.

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (OAKLAND) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. (22-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88%, +18.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Arian Foster is an elite running back, but Oakland’s Darren McFadden might be even better. He leads the NFL with 468 rushing yards and Michael Vick is the only NFL player that has gained more yards per carry than McFadden’s gaudy 6.2 YPC average. McFadden had 129 total yards (47 rushing, 82 receiving) against Houston last year. QB Jason Campbell didn’t play against the Texans last year, but he is coming off a big performance, throwing for 344 yards in last week’s loss to New England. His offense could be a bit short-handed on Sunday as WR Louis Murphy (groin) and FB Marcel Reece (ankle) are both questionable, and Michael Bush is less than 100 percent with an ankle injury. The defense could get a boost though, as S Michael Huff is back at practice after missing last week’s contest with a concussion. Oakland has won three in a row ATS on the road.

The Texans are a bit undermanned on offense with Johnson likely out three weeks, RB Derrick Ward out indefinitely (ankle) and RB Ben Tate questionable with a groin injury. QB Matt Schaub still has weapons in the passing game, especially with two talented tight ends in Owen Daniels (14 rec, 182 yds, 3 TD) and James Casey (9 rec, 163 yds, 1 TD). Schaub has not looked particularly sharp against the Raiders in four career games against them (52% completions, 168 passing YPG, 3 TD, 2 INT), but this secondary no longer has All-Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha. Houston’s defense is led by the pass-rushing duo of Mario Williams and Antonio Smith, who each have four sacks this year. This pair is a big reason why the team ranks 10th in the NFL in passing defense (214 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/05/2011 07:39 PM

Week 5 Preview: Eagles at Bills

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-3)

at BUFFALO BILLS (3-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 50

Philadelphia, the team that many pundits picked to reach the Super Bowl, try to end a three-game losing skid when it travels to 3-1 Buffalo on Sunday.

The Eagles have the ability to turn the Bills into a one-dimensional offense, as they have the talent and depth at cornerback to shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick and Buffalo’s receiving corps. However, the Bills could use RB Fred Jackson to plow through an Eagles run defense that’s been overwhelmed by the run all season (140 YPG, 3rd-most in NFL). The Eagles obviously have the firepower to keep up. The Bills pass defense has done a solid job limiting big plays, but Leodis McKelvin was torched by Bengals rookie A.J. Green a couple of times last week and will be picked on when trying to cover DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin. Expect PHILADELPHIA to get back on the winning track with a season-saving road win (and cover).

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Eagles.

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, after the first month of the season. (42-15 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).

The Eagles already-suspect offensive line took a hit with LT Jason Peters likely out several weeks with a strained hamstring. The injury bug hit the defensive line even harder, as DE Trent Cole (calf) is out three weeks and DT Antonio Dixon is done for the season after suffering a torn triceps. If they can’t put pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick, Philly will be in for another long afternoon. Offensively, Philly is averaging 445 YPG during its losing skid, but has three giveaways in each of those defeats. The running game, especially LeSean McCoy, needs to get back on track in Buffalo. The Eagles lead the NFC in rushing (164 YPG), but only had 108 in last week’s home loss to San Francisco, as McCoy carried nine times for just 18 yards.

The Bills’ high-powered offense that averaged 409 YPG in their first three contests was stymied in Cincinnati, as Buffalo was held to a meager 273 total yards in a 23-20 defeat. The Bills only scored one offensive touchdown and squandered a 17-3 halftime lead in the loss. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick only averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt, but he is having a strong season with 260 passing YPG, 9 TD and 3 INT. Fred Jackson has been the team’s best player, ranking fourth in the NFL in rushing (369 yards) and fourth in YPC (5.8). Both players could be affected by the loss of starting LT Demetrius Bell who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Buffalo’s defense has been equally as bad in both facets of the game, ranking 25th in the NFL in both passing (276 YPG) and rushing (130 YPG). These numbers could improve greatly if the team’s top cornerback, Terrence McGee, returns to help out McKelvin and the rest of the secondary. McGee strained his hamstring in Week 1 at Kansas City, and is finally practicing with the team.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/05/2011 07:40 PM

Week 5 Preview: Titans at Steelers

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-1)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 39.5

The banged-up Steelers look to get back on track hosting a red-hot Tennessee team that is riding a three-game win streak.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has taken a beating behind a revolving door offensive line, but is expected to start Sunday despite his foot sprain suffered in last week’s loss in Houston. The Steelers have won slugfests in each of the past two years against the Titans (13-10 and 19-11), including a victory in Tennessee with third-string QB Dennis Dixon under center last season. With Vince Young then Kerry Collins under center for the Titans that day, Tennessee mustered just 238 yards of offense and turned it over seven times. Both teams have a different look this year though; the Titans are more reliant on the passing game while the Steelers’ aging defense is struggling to stop the run. Pittsburgh has been a great bet at home recently, going 8-3 ATS since the start of last season, and this team usually comes through when it is desperate for a victory. The play here is PITTSBURGH to win and cover.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Steelers.

Play Against - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, after the first month of the season. (27-7 since 1983.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Roethlisberger has thrown the ball pretty well in his career against a Titans pass defense that is usually top-notch (72% completion rate, 303 passing YPG), but he has also tossed four picks in these three games. The Steelers have other injury concerns in addition to Roethlisberger’s foot. LB James Harrison is out several weeks after fracturing the orbital bone around his right eye and DE Aaron Smith is doubtful to play because of a foot injury. The news is better on the offensive side of the ball as RB Rashard Mendenhall’s hamstring and OT Jonathan Scott’s ankle appeared healed enough to allow these two to suit up on Sunday. Mendenhall has struggled with the ever-changing O-Line, gaining just 173 yards on 3.0 YPC this season.

RB Chris Johnson finally had his first 100-yard game of the season last Sunday, gaining 101 yards against the Browns. But the Steel Curtain stuffed him last year, as Johnson rushed 16 times for just 34 yards. Tennessee is very comfortable with its new QB Matt Hasselbeck, who despite not having his top WR Kenny Britt last week, still threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns. He has averaged 281 passing YPG with 8 TD and 3 INT this year. The Titans defense has also performed better than expected, ranking seventh in the league against the pass (212 YPG) and eighth against the run (88 YPG). Star safety Chris Hope returned to the lineup last week after missing two games because of a shoulder injury, but then broke his arm against the Browns and will be out 4-to-6 weeks.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/07/2011 10:32 PM

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 5

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Sunday, October 9

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 4) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (0 - 4) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) at BUFFALO (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (3 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-48 ATS (-29.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) - 10/9/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 139-105 ATS (+23.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (3 - 1) at DENVER (1 - 3) - 10/9/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 0) at ATLANTA (2 - 2) - 10/9/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 10

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CHICAGO (2 - 2) at DETROIT (4 - 0) - 10/10/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/07/2011 10:33 PM

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 5

Sunday, 10/9/2011

KANSAS CITY at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 2-8 ATS vs. Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 5-1 ATS in October

ARIZONA at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 52-30 OVER in dome games
MINNESOTA: 4-7 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3

PHILADELPHIA at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-4 ATS as a road fav of 7 pts or less
BUFFALO: 4-0 OVER this season

OAKLAND at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 8-2 ATS after allowing 30+ points
HOUSTON: 8-21 ATS off a home win

NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 10-2 UNDER vs div opponents
CAROLINA: 36-18 UNDER at home vs div opponents

CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-3 OVER in October games
JACKSONVILLE: 7-4 ATS after a loss by 10+

TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 6-2 OVER after a win by 14+
PITTSBURGH: 6-1 ATS off a road loss

SEATTLE at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 6-0 OVER off a home loss
NY GIANTS: 20-8 OVER against conf opponents

TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 4-1 ATS against NFC West div opponents
SAN FRANCISCO: 14-24 ATS after a 2 game road trip

NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 28-50 ATS off a road loss
NEW ENGLAND: 8-1 OVER versus div opponents

SAN DIEGO at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 7-3 ATS as a road fav
DENVER: 2-9 ATS off a road loss

GREEN BAY at ATLANTA, 8:20 PM ET NBC
GREEN BAY: 13-4 ATS after a cover as a double digit fav
ATLANTA: 4-15 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7


Monday, 10/10/2011

CHICAGO at DETROIT, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
CHICAGO: 14-28 ATS after scoring 30+ points
DETROIT: 8-1 ATS in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/07/2011 10:34 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 5

Chiefs (1-3) @ Colts (0-4)—Banged-up Indy on short work week after strong effort came up short Monday night in Tampa; Painter played lot better than expected, but Colts still have only five TD’s on 44 drives, with 17 3/outs- they’re very weak favorite here, vs Chief club that got first win last week. KC turned ball over just once in last two games (+2) after turning it over nine times (-7) in first two games- they’ve scored only four TD’s on 42 drives, with 15 3/outs. Chiefs are 9-20 in last 29 games decided by 7 or less points- they’ve covered five of last seven as a pre-bye underdog. Colts are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last three by average score of 19-9; Chiefs lost last five visits here, scoring just 12.6 ppg.

Cardinals (1-3) @ Vikings (0-4)—Larry Fitzgerald comes home with Redbird club that lost last three games by total of 8 points, visiting 0-4 Viking squad that has three losses by 5 or less points, despite leading three of four games by 10+ points at half. Cardinals lost eight of last ten in series, dropping last six visits here, with last win in 1977- they lost 27-24 in OT here LY. Arizona is 3-7 in last 10 games decided by 7 or less points; they’re just 6-26 on 3rd down last two games- they need to develop an option other than Fitzgerald, since teams blanket him in key spots. Vikings don’t have a takeaway in last two games- they outscored foes 37-0 in first half of their two home games, but got outscored 50-6 after intermission.

Eagles (1-3) @ Bills (3-1)—Team that won last three Buffalo games trailed by 11+ points at half; Bills trailed 21-3/21-10 at half in two home games, but won both, outscoring opponents 59-24 in second half. Iggles might be glad to get away from restless home fans after three straight losses- they were outscored 36-6 in second half last two weeks, blowing 23-3 lead at home last Sunday. Eagles’ allowed eight TD’s, two FG’s on ten red zone drives, which is bad- they had only two TD’s on seven red zone drives last week, missing two chip shot FG’s. This is Philly’s first visit to Orchard Park since ’03- they lead series 6-5, with average total in last five meetings, 29.2. Bills (+7) won turnover battle in all four games, scoring defensive TD in each of last two games, but they’ve converted only 12 of 36 on 3rd down last three games.

Raiders (2-2) @ Texans (3-1)—Hamstring injury to Andre Johnson big blow to Texan offense. Houston won five of six series games, with all five wins by 7+ points; Oakland lost 30-17/29-6 in two visits here, last of which was in ’09. Texans are 5-2 in last seven games as home favorite, winning 34-7/17-10 at home this year, allowing two TD’s on 20 drives at Reliant- they’ve allowed total of 30 points in three points, gave up 40 in only loss, in Superdome. Raiders split pair of 3-point decisions on road this year- since ’07, they’re 19-15-1 as road dogs, but in last three games, they’ve allowed 38-24-31 points. Houston is 4-9-2 vs spread in game that followed their last 15 wins. Curious to see if Texans (180 rushing yards vs Steelers last week) can run ball vs Oakland defense (allowed 133.3 rushing yards/game over last three weeks).

Saints (3-1) @ Panthers (1-3)—New Orleans won/covered its last three games by 17-7-13 points; they’ve converted 32 of 58 (55.2%) on 3rd down this year, which is why they’ve run 34 more plays than their opponents- since 2006, they’re 13-9 as road favorite, and are 15-8-1 in last 24 games as single digit favorites. Carolina passed for 403-404-374 yards in three non-monsoon games, but the rainy game is only won they’ve won; panthers’ losses this year are by 7-7-5 points, as Newton grows into starting QB job. Saints won three of last four meetings, winning 16-14/34-3 LY, after losing six of previous seven series games- they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in divisional games this season, home dogs 4-2. Saints scored 13 TD’s, tried 14 FG’s, have struggled little in red zone (4.50, 15th). Three of four Carolina games went over the total.

Bengals (2-2) @ Jaguars (1-3)— Jags are 9-2 in last 11 series games, with four of last six meetings decided by 4 or less points, but Jacksonville is struggling on offense with rookie Gabbert under center, scoring three TDs, trying six FGs on 45 drives, with 16 3/outs. In its last three games, Jax is just 10-41 on 3rd down. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Bengal games this year, with last three decided by total of 10 points. Cincy lost nine of last 12 games decided by 7 or less points, but they’re 3-0 vs spread as dogs this year and 11-6 vs spread in game following their last 17 wins- they’re just 7 for last 33 on 3rd down, with rookie Dalton under center- teams with rookie QBs generally struggle (which makes Newton look that much better). AFC North teams are 4-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs. All four Jaguar games stayed under the total.

Titans (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)—Roethlisberger left Reliant Stadium Sunday with a boot on his foot; he has deep bruise, probably a stress fracture too, but he’ll play. Problem is Steelers have been outrushed in three of four games, were outsacked 8-1 last two weeks, but they did win only home game 24-0- they’re 21-18-1 in last 40 games as home favorite. Titans allowed 16 or less points in all four games, giving up only five TDs on 42 drives- they’re given up only 62.7 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Steelers won three of last four series games, winning 13-10ot/19-11 last two years; Titans lost three of last four visits here, losing by 27-27-3 points- they lost their pre-bye game 59-0/33-25 the last two years. AFC South teams are 4-2 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4. Hasselbeck averaged 7.8+ yards/pass attempt in each of last three games.

Seahawks (1-3) @ Giants (3-1)—Home side won nine of last ten series games; Seahawks lost last five visits here, got beat 44-6/41-7 in last two games with Giants. Seattle lost its pre-bye game 27-3/20-3 last two years; they’re 3-15 vs spread in last 18 road games, losing 33-17/24-0 in first two road games this year. Giants scored 28-29-31 points in winning last three games; they’re just 6-11 vs spread in last 17 home games, but did win/cover home opener (28-16 over Rams) this year. Big Blue is 21-13 in last 34 games decided by more than 7 points- they’re 26-15 vs spread in game following their last 41 wins. Seattle is 12-27 in last 39 games decided by more than 7 points- their last two games, both at home, were decided by total of five points. NFC West teams are 4-7-1 vs spread as non-divisional underdogs.

Buccaneers (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)—Niners were down 23-3 in 3rd quarter at Philly last week, rallied to win, as Harbaugh has instilled mental toughness needed to win close games- they outscored last two opponents 34-8 in second half. Long road trip for Tampa Bay club on short work week after escaping Monday night with win over Colts; Bucs beat Minnesota 24-20 in only previous road game, after being down 17-0 at half- they’ve trailed at half in three of four games. Home side won seven of last eight Buc-49er games; Tampa Bay lost 11 of 13 visits here, winning 21-0 LY. 49ers’ last three games were decided by total of nine points- they’re already +8 in turnovers, with 3-2-3-3 takeaways and only three giveaways. Don’t forget that in only loss, 49ers led Dallas 14-0 just before half. Three of Niners’ four games went over total.

Jets (2-2) @ Patriots (3-1)— Ryan is 3-2 vs Belichick, beating him here 28-21 in LY’s playoffs, but banged-up Jets are playing on road for third week in row, following losses at Oakland/Baltimore, when they allowed 34 points both games (gave up 346 rushing yards last two games). In 56 plays on field last week, Jet offense was outscored 21-3 by Raven defense. 48 of Patriots’ last 66 wins are by more than seven points- they’ve already scored 17 TD’s (on 42 drives) but have also given up 1,910 yards, as all four foes gained 448+ total yards. Welker already has 40 catches for 610 yards, outrageous numbers; Jets did hold last three foes to 3.4/5.3/4.7 ypa; we’ll see what happens here. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games this season. Average total in Jets’ last four visits here is surprisingly high 51.8. Divisional home favorites are just 4-6 vs spread this season.

Chargers (3-1) @ Broncos (1-3)—Denver’s pass defense allowed 7.2/7.8/9.7 yards/pass attempt last three weeks to Dalton/Hasselbeck/Rodgers, could be major problem vs Rivers here. San Diego is 8-2 in last ten series games, with average total in last six 58.7- seven of last nine series games were decided by 11+ points. Bolts won four of last five visits here- they’ve scored 32+ points in five of last six series games, but lost in Foxboro in only road game so far this year. Chargers are 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorite, but their defense appears to be improved, holding last three opponents under 100 yards on ground. Over last decade, Broncos are 8-6 as home underdog; they have only one FG to show for five drives this year that started in enemy territory; before getting crushed in Lambeau last week, all three Denver games had been decided by 3 or less points.

Packers (4-0) @ Falcons (2-2)—Pack pounded Atlanta 48-21 in playoffs here LY, on way to Super Bowl title; teams split last 12 meetings, with four of last seven decided by exactly 3 points. Green Bay is on serious roll, winning all four games this year by 7+ points- they’re 11-7 in last 18 games as road favorite, 24-14-1 in game following their last 39 wins, but this is their first game this year on artificial turf. Falcons not yet firing on all cylinders; they don’t have a sack in last three games. Even in last week’s win, they let 27-7 lead turn into 30-28 nailbiter at end in Seattle, but they’ve covered four of last five as home underdog. Green Bay already has 10 TD drives of 80+ yards- that’s a lot. Over is 3-1 in both team’s games so far this season. NFC non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 vs spread this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4.

Bears (2-2) @ Lions (4-0)—First Monday Night Football home game in decade for Motor City, which is fired up over Lions’ 4-0 start. Upstart Detroit won last eight games that counted, despite trailing 20-0/20-3 at half of last two games; they’ve outscored last three opponents 85-13 in second half, with defense sparking rally with two TDs of its own in Dallas last week, but they’ve lost six in row, 10 of last 12 to Bears, with three of last five setbacks by 5 or less points. Chicago won five of last six visits here; their shaky OL (allowed 15 sacks) could have trouble with crowd noise in dome. Bears ran ball 31 times for 224 yards last week, after running it total of 51 times for 161 yards in first three games. Detroit allowed average of 132 rushing yards in last three games. Average total in last five series games is 43.2- all four Detroit games this season went over total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/07/2011 10:36 PM

NFL


Week 5

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 9

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
Cincinnati is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games at home
Buffalo is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. HOUSTON
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Indianapolis is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tennessee is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Pittsburgh is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 13-5 SU in their last 18 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing at home against NY Jets

8:20 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 13 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games


Monday, October 10

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games at home


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27500 Followers:33
10/07/2011 10:37 PM

NFL
Dunkel


Week 5

Philadelphia at Buffalo
The Eagles look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as an underdog of 1 to 3 points. Philadelphia is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9

Game 405-406: Kansas City at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.351; Indianapolis 126.329
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 36
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Arizona at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 123.942; Minnesota 130.744
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2 1/2); Over

Game 409-410: Philadelphia at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.407; Buffalo 133.235
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 53
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1 1/2); Over

Game 411-412: Oakland at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 132.704; Houston 140.236
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 413-414: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 139.386; Carolina 125.821
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); Under

Game 415-416: Cincinnati at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 127.271; Jacksonville 127.065
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Tennessee at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 133.646; Pittsburgh 136.399
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Seattle at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 122.976; NY Giants 131.274
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 10; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+10); Under

Game 421-422: Tampa Bay at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 132.300; San Francisco 133.151
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Under

Game 423-424: NY Jets at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 133.161; New England 143.779
Dunkel Line: New England by 10 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 9; 49
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9); Over

Game 425-426: San Diego at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 132.268; Denver 130.197
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4); Under

Game 427-428: Green Bay at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 140.393; Atlanta 134.306
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-5 1/2); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 10

Game 429-430: Chicago at Detroit (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.901; Detroit 140.518
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Detroit by 5; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-5); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: