cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
On 10/03/2011 06:47 PM in NCAA Football

Cnotes CFB Week # 6 Best Bets 10/6-10/8 !

College Football Betting Preview Week 6

Auburn’s trip to Arkansas is part of college football’s Week 6 undercard.
The 2011 college football season moves into Week 6 and finds that road underdogs are coming out ahead, posting a 133-116-3 ATS record.

Oddsmakers have yet to catch up to the top five teams in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, combining for a remarkable 18-4-1 ATS record. Leading the charge is No. 3 Stanford in covering its first four games by an average of 13.6 points a contest.

The Red River Rivalry takes center stage early on Saturday, as the No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners opened as 9 ½-point neutral-site favorites over the No. 16 Texas Longhorns, but that number has been bet down a half-point in most places. Bettors will find that neither team has been favored at this level since the Sooners went off as 12-point favorites in a 28-21 win on Oct. 7, 2007.

Texas has already gained measurable revenge in wins over UCLA (49-20) and Iowa State (37-14), which makes th 'Horns a dangerous underdog due to dropping last year’s meeting by a 28-20 score. Oklahoma is also 0-5 ATS when playing on a neutral field and favored between 3 ½ to 10 points, while the underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall.

One of the more interesting lines in the betting market is certainly the Arkansas Razorbacks laying double digits to the visiting Auburn Tigers. Many professionals find it puzzling due to the Tigers coming off a 16-13 upset win over the South Carolina Gamecocks as 10 ½-point road underdogs.

Auburn hasn’t gotten points in this series since a 9-7 win at Razorbacks Stadium in 2007.

Georgia Tech continues to be held in high regard in the betting markets due to leading the nation in points scored, outscoring opponents by a 258-129 margin through five games. The Yellow Jackets have moved up a tick to 14 ½-point home favorites over the Maryland Terrapins this week, but that’s a concerning move due to not covering that type of number in this series since 1998.

Playing against one of the hottest teams in the country is in order, as the underdog has taken home the cash in four consecutive meetings, covering the number by an average of 12.2 points a game.

Two teams that are coming off losses will be featured in Saturday night’s prime-time contest on ABC, as the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Las Vegas bookmakers opened the Cornhuskers as 10-point favorites, which is alarming due to their 0-3 ATS mark when laying double digits in Lincoln already this season.

Top Heisman Trophy candidates to watch this weekend include Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck welcoming in the Colorado Buffaloes, while Alabama running back Trent Richardson prepares to knock helmets with the Vanderbilt Commodores in Tuscaloosa. Both players are expected to have big performances as each team is laying nearly four touchdowns Saturday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/03/2011 06:49 PM

Oregon Ducks Host Cal Bears ESPN Thursday

The Oregon Ducks look to improve to 2-0 in Pac-12 play and to keep their slim BCS Championship hopes alive with a win over the Cal Bears this Thursday night.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET Thursday night, and the game will be televised nationwide on ESPN. The Don Best odds screen has Oregon as a 23 ½-point favorite at home with the total yet to be released.

Since losing to LSU in the season opener at Cowboys Stadium, it’s been business as usual for the Ducks who have averaged 60.3 points per game over their last three. The LSU loss may eventually cost Oregon a trip to the BCS Championship, but Chip Kelly's club is still in great position to challenge Stanford down the road for supremacy in the Pac-12.

Oregon (3-1) survived Nick Foles and Arizona in the Ducks’ last game by putting up points all game and out-shooting the Wildcats 56-31 in the end. LaMichael James rushed for a ridiculous 288 yards in the big win.

As is usually the case with the Ducks, the offense is confident and clicking now that they have a few games under their belt. At home with no distracting crowd, Oregon’s offense tends to run even better. The Bears will definitely have their hands full with this attack.

California (3-1) picked up its first loss of the season in thelast game against Washington as a 1 ½-point favorite on the road. Last season, Cal covered the spread against Oregon at home in a 15-13 loss as 19-point underdogs.

While Oregon has won the last two meetings between these two teams, Jeff Tedford has had his share of success against Oregon in recent years. Cal is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Ducks, and has remarkably held Oregon's high-octane offense to just 24 points or less in four of those five games.

Both Cal and Oregon have trended ‘over’ in college football betting this season, with each team’s record on the high side at 3-1. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of Oregon’s last six at home, and four of Cal’s last six games overall.

Recent form may end up being more important than older trends, but it is worth noting that five of the last six games these teams have played have gone ‘under.’

As is illustrated by their 60.3 points per game over the last three, Oregon has just one speed, and that’s full speed ahead. Cal in all likelihood won’t get a break of Oregon letting up late, so to cover this spread the Bears are going to need to bring their best on offense or once again find a way to solve this dangerous spread attack.

The early weather forecast for Eugene on Thursday includes a 30 percent chance of rain and the mid-to-upper 50s for kickoff from Autzen Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/03/2011 06:50 PM

Texas And Oklahoma Collide In Red River Rivalry

The Red River Rivalry between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns doesn’t need any hype for Saturday with both Big 12 squads undefeated and ranked in the top-11 nationally.

Early odds have Oklahoma as nine-point favorites, with the total still to be released. ABC will have the noon (ET) broadcast from the neutral site Cotton Bowl in Dallas, the host of this matchup since 1932.

The Sooners (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) are coming off home wins over Missouri (38-28) and Ball State (62-6) but fell from No. 1 to No 3 in the AP Poll over that span, getting leapfrogged by SEC schools LSU and Alabama.

Coach Bob Stoops isn’t worrying about the drop and for good reason. There’s a ton of football left and his team is still top-ranked in the Coaches Poll. The Don Best Linemakers Poll has had Oklahoma second behind Alabama the last few weeks and that will likely remain when the new version comes out Monday.

The Sooners shockingly fell behind 14-3 to Missouri before storming back with 28 straight points. However, they failed to ‘cover’ as 20-point favorites. Oklahoma needed no such comeback last week, jumping all over MAC lightweight Ball State and blowing by the 39 ½-point spread in the third quarter.

Wide receiver Kenny Stills had 80 yards receiving last week after missing Missouri (concussion). He’s an important complement to All-American Ryan Broyles (476 receiving yards), especially with Trey Flanks suspended indefinitely. Jaz Reynolds has stepped up the last two weeks (234 combined receiving yards).

Oklahoma’s passing attack ranks fifth in the country (377.8 YPG) with exceptional quarterback Landry Jones. The 44th-ranked running game (177.3 YPG) provides enough balance with former walk-on Dominique Whaley (379 yards) leading the way. Brennan Clay (161 yards) is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, so Whaley may have to carry a huge load.

The defense gives up 348 yards per game (40th nationally), but has done a good job limiting points (15.3 PPG, ranked 14th). The unit is capable of great efforts, holding then No. 5 Florida State to 246 total yards in the 23-13 road win on September 17.

Oklahoma has a 39-game home winning streak, best in the nation, and a 9-game winning streak overall (7-2 ATS).

The AP’s No. 11 Longhorns (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) have done an in-season makeover, benching quarterback Garrett Gilbert permanently. Coach Mack Brown did not want a repeat of last year’s 5-7 SU freefall.

The tandem of sophomore Case McCoy and freshman David Ash have taken over. First was a comeback 17-16 home win as 7 ½-point favorites over BYU on September 10. The results the last two games have also been impressive, road wins and ‘covers’ at UCLA (49-20) and Iowa State (37-14) to avenge losses to those schools last season.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Texas’ last two games after the ‘under’ was 2-0 in the first two.

McCoy has been the starter the last two games, completing a combined 19-of-27 passes (70.4 percent) for 278 yards. Ash only threw three passes against UCLA, but was 7-of-12 versus Iowa State for 145 yards and had touchdown passes of 40 and 48 yards in the first half.

Both quarterbacks will again see action this week. Ash is the better runner, which provides more of a worry for the Sooners defense. Neither has thrown an interception the last two weeks, a big problem for Gilbert.

Texas also has two solid running backs in freshman Malcolm Brown and senior Foswhitt Whittaker. Texas’ offense can cause problems for Oklahoma as long as the stage isn’t too big for the young signal callers.

The Longhorns’ defense is solid all-around and is allowing 289 YPG in total yards (ranked 15th nationally). However, the cornerbacks are young and facing Jones will easily be the biggest challenge of the year with no other opposing passing attack ranked in the top 50.

Oklahoma won last year’s meeting 28-20 as 3-point favorites before Texas’ season fell apart. The Longhorns were 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five meetings.

Early weather forecasts have the temperature in the 80s with isolated thunderstorms possible.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/03/2011 06:52 PM

Boise State 3-TD Favorites At Fresno State Bulldogs

The No. 7 team in our Don Best Linemakers Poll will be in action in Friday night's nationally televised NCAA football betting duel, as the Boise State Broncos visit the Fresno State Bulldogs. This 9:00 p.m. (ET) kickoff from Bulldogs Stadium is slated to be on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

Boise State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has turned up on the wrong side of huge college football odds in each of the last two weeks. The Broncos had a 30-0 lead on the Nevada Wolf Pack at home last week before allowing 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to blow covering the 27-point spread.

Two weeks ago, it was the Tulsa Golden Hurricane which stuck in front of a 27½-point spread in a 41-21 Broncos triumph.

Still, the boys from the blue field are riding a six-game winning streak dating back to last year, and there hasn't been a game decided by less than 14 points in the bunch. The college football odds opened with the Broncos favored by 20-20½ for this contest, and has already gone to 21 at most books.

It's hard to criticize anything that the Broncos are doing this year. They rank No. 31 in total offense at 446.8 YPG and No. 19 in total defense at 298.8 YPG, and are in the Top 30 in scoring offense (36.5 PPG) and scoring defense (16.8 PPG).

It should be just another day at the office for QB Kellen Moore. He is completing 73.9 percent of his passes on the campaign and has 14 scores against four INTs. Moore threw for four touchdowns against the Bulldogs in last year's clash, and with three TDs in this one, he'll have accounted for a whopping 120 scores in his career.

Of course, Moore isn't exactly shaking in his boots about the idea of going against these Bulldogs. Fresno State has allowed 32.4 PPG this year, well down the list at 97th in the country. This is also its toughest test of the season by far, as the only game against a ranked opponent was a 42-29 loss at the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Week 2.

Last year's game at Boise State was a disaster for head coach Pat Hill's offense. The Bulldogs only managed 125 total yards of offense, and Ryan Colburn was picked off twice while completing just sif oh his 23 pass attempts.

The hope is that Derek Carr, the brother of former No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick David Carr, can do a better job against the stout Broncos defense. Carr has thrown for 1,291 yards and 10 touchdowns this year with four picks.

As always though, the onus for the offense will be on the shoulders of Robbie Rouse. Rouse had 70 yards on 17 carries at Boise State last year, and has 600 rushing yards and four trips to the end zone this season. He is averaging 26.6 carries per game though, so fatigue could be an issue.

The Broncos haven't lost a game in this series since 2005, but that loss did come right here in Fresno. Since that point, Boise State is 5-0 SU and ATS, and has averaged 48.4 PPG.

These two teams used to both play in the WAC, so they are very familiar with each other. The favorite has gone 10-1 ATS in the 11 meetings dating back to 2000. The Broncos are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games. Fresno State is hoping to snap a string of bad luck when playing on Friday nights, as it is only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games on Friday.

It should be a nice night for football in Fresno on Friday. Temperatures are expected to be in the 60s around kickoff time, and there is no chance for rain in the forecast.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/03/2011 06:57 PM

Bettors cash late-night action

October 3, 2011

For the fifth straight week the sports books fate on a college football Saturday was in the hands of the popular teams playing in the nationally televised late games. The day looked to be starting out as one of the best of the season for the books with the favorites stumbling out of the gate and ultimately ending with a 20-32 record for the week.
The underdogs were so impressive last week that 16 of them won outright led by Toledo (+7.5), Central Michigan (+8.5), Washington (+9.5), Auburn (+10) and Clemson (+7).

As the first two waves of games were posted, every sports book director knew all they had to do to secure their best day of the season was split the late games with the public.

That's not too much to ask for, is it?

They weren't asking to sweep the board against the public, but rather just a measly split to get the corporate suits off their back for a Saturday because they haven't been happy with September's results that haven't met budgeted expectations.

The games the sports books needed to split on were Notre Dame (-12) against Purdue, Wisconsin (-9.5) against Nebraska, Alabama (-3.5) against Florida and Stanford (-21.5) against UCLA.

The success rate on these late games hasn't been good all season, so the house confidence level couldn't have been high, but most have been in the business so long that they know trends and streaks always cycle around.

However, this season, nothing has cycled around and the public win-rate thus far in these type of games has been pretty impressive and one-sided.

"I think we are 1-12 in those type of games this season," said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay. "And in most of those cases, the losses are compounded even more because many of the games have gone OVER the posted total which is always a very popular side with the public in any game."

On this day, the public wouldn't be denied and rolled strong with their win streak. Not only did they do better than a split, or even win three of them, but they took all four games.

Depending on what number the public got on the Notre Dame game, all four games also went OVER the total as well.

"Everything we had built up for the day on all the games, a day that was going real well for us, was lost in an instant with the four games," said Kornegay.

The back breaker for the sports books came in the final game posted where Stanford needed two unanswered fourth-quarter touchdowns to cover.

Stanford, in an attempt to impress pollsters and the BCS computer that might hold the Pac 12's weak play this season against them when big BCS paychecks are handed out, scored the cover touchdown with 1:51 remaining in the game to win 45-19. The final touchdown pass was thrown by starting quarterback Andrew Luck as well, showing how much Stanford wanted to make a statement in the box score for the rest of the nation that would likely read the score rather than watching the late west coast game.

The public love affair with Stanford won't stop anytime soon no matter how high the spread gets. The Stanford Cardinal are now 4-0 ATS this season and have been a thorn in the side of Vegas sports books every week. This week they'll welcome the struggling Colorado Buffaloes to Palo Alto as 27-point favorites.

Along with Stanford, the rest of this week’s big late games the sports books will have to beat down are Alabama (-28.5) at home against Vanderbilt, Arkansas (-10) at home against surprising Auburn and Nebraska laying 10 at home to The Ohio State University.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/04/2011 11:08 PM

Florida Gators Minus John Brantley At LSU Tigers

Whereas this battle loomed with potential BCS consequences for both sides less than a week ago, now it has only one of the combatants retaining serious national title hopes.

For the other, the short-term prognosis has merely become one of survival.

Such is the backdrop for Saturday’s showdown in Baton Rouge featuring Florida and LSU. Kickoff at Tiger Stadium has been moved to 3:30 p.m. (ET) to accommodate CBS’s national TV coverage.

Early posted numbers on the matchup have LSU favored by 13½ points at most Las Vegas betting shops, with the total posted at 41 ‘under’ for this battle between SEC heavyweights.

Florida has been been reclassified into the cruiserweight class after being unmasked at The Swamp last weekend by Alabama. Not only were the Gators exposed as non-threat in the national title picture, but injury was added to insult as QB John Brantley suffered a lower leg injury on a sack at the end of the first half and did not return for the final two quarters of action.

Although Brantley’s malady will not require surgery or likely keep him sidelined for an extended period of time, coach Will Muschamp has already ruled his starting QB out for the contest at Baton Rouge.

Brantley’s easy transition to the pro-style offense installed by new Florida offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was one of the most interesting developments of the first month of the college campaign. Brantley, a poor fit for Urban Meyer’s spread-option schemes a year ago, was much more comfy in the new Weis system and had completed 65% of his passes in the young season before getting KO’d by the Tide.

But his absence is causing much concern in Gainesville, because touted true freshman Jeff Driskel, himself somewhat hampered by a mildly sprained ankle, appeared overwhelmed when called upon in relief of Brantley last week vs. 'Bama. Though understandable considering the Tide’s defensive prowess, things get no easier against John Chavis’ robust LSU stop unit on Saturday.

With that in mind, Muschamp is already announcing contingency plans for the trip to Baton Rouge, indicating a couple of other true frosh QBs, Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Murphy, will get reps in practice this week and could be available for duty if needed on Saturday.

Florida’s hopes are thus likely reduced to a low-scoring defensive battle in Baton Rouge, with the Gator “D” tasked with slowing the LSU strike force. Recent developments in Baton Rouge, however, suggest that possibility can’t be overlooked.

Specifically, coach Les Miles could have a burgeoning QB controversy on his hands after former starter Jordan Jefferson was reinstated from suspension prior to last week’s game vs. Kentucky. Though his snaps were limited against the Wildcats, Jefferson did score a TD on his first series of the game when running it in from short yardage.

Moreover, Jarrett Lee, who inherited the starting role when Jefferson was first suspended in late August, completed only 8-of-21 passes vs. UK. Although Miles has yet to indicate any change is forthcoming at the position, his actions indicate that Jefferson is at the ready and will be used in certain situations. How Lee responds after performing capably without looking over his shoulder in the first four weeks of the season remains to be seen.

Whatever the QB dynamics, the LSU recipe for success remains much the same, with Lee (or Jefferson) not being asked to make too many big plays. Instead, their task is to let the Tiger infantry move the clock and chains and putting the QBs in favorable down-and-distance situations, while the defense and special teams provide positive field position.

This does lend to the possibility of a lower-scoring game, although that was not the case a year ago in Gainesville, when LSU won a wild 33-29 verdict. Miles eschewed a potential game-tying 53-yard field goal try in the final minute with a daring fake executed flawlessly by holder Derek Helton and PK Josh Jasper, instead giving the Tigers a first down and a chance to win in regulation. Which LSU did on a 3-yard TD pass from Lee to Terrence Toliver with just six seconds to play.

Despite Brantley’s absence, and last year’s result, pointspread performance history on both sides paints a prettier picture for Florida, which stands 19-8 vs. the number its last 27 outings away from The Swamp.

Meanwhile, “The Hat” has hardly been reliable at home vs. the number in recent years, as Miles stands just 9-22 vs. the spread his last 31 at Tiger Stadium, including last week’s non-cover vs. Kentucky.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/04/2011 11:11 PM

College Notebook

October 4, 2011


Arizona State…The anchor of the Sun Devil OL, C sr. Garth Gerhart, limped off of the Sun Devil Stadium field last Saturday vs. Oregon State in the first half with a twisted ankle and did not return to the fray. ASU's offense struggled somewhat in his absence, with a handful of bad snaps to QB Brock Osweiler helping to short-circuit a few drives, although the Sun Devils won anyway, 35-20.

Bowling Green... The Falcons were a bit shorthanded for their trip to Morgantown last week, as top rusher Anthon Samuel (leg injury; 414 YR and 6.8 ypc. helped by an earlier 96-yard TD run) and top receiver Eugene Cooper (academic issues; 21 catches thru first four games) were both absent in the lopsided 55-10 loss to WVU.

BYU... Cougars could have a QB controversy brewing as soph Jake Heaps was pulled last Friday vs. Utah State in favor of senior Riley Nelson, a onetime Utah transfer who began his career at USU in 2006. Nelson, who was splitting time early in 2010 with Heaps, led a late Cougar comeback with a pair of 4th Q TD passes, including the game-winner to Marcus Mathews (via a tip) in the final seconds of a 27-24 Cougar. No word from HC Bronco Mendenhall who might be starting this week vs. San Jose State.

Florida... Check status of QB John Brantley, who had completed 10 of 16 passes before twisting his knee and ankle just before halftime of last Saturday's 38-10 loss to Alabama. The game got out of hand in the second half when Brantley was sidelined and HC Will Muschamp inserted touted true frosh Jeff Driskel, who completed only 2 of 6 passes in Charlie Weis' offense. An extended absence of Brantley would hurt the Gators, who must travel to LSU this week.

Indiana... Starting QB Edward Wright-Baker, nursing a sore knee, missed last week's game vs. Penn State, although some Big Ten observers believe first-year HC Kevin Wilson was ready to hand the job to RS soph Dusty Kiel anyway after he led a belated fourth-quarter rally the previous week at North Texas. Kiel went the distance vs. the Nittany Lions but wasn't overly impressive, completing 22 of 45 for 182 yards as once again the Hoosiers could not score a TD until the 4th Q of an eventual 16-10 loss.

Kansas State... Touted Tennessee transfer RB Bryce Brown, who was expected to do big things for the Wildcats this season, was a no-show at team practices last week and for the game vs. Baylor. Personal issues are being cited as the official reason, although Brown had relinquished most of his carries to 5'8 dynamo John Hubert, who ran for 166 yards in the Sept. 24 win at Miami-Florida and another 57 YR last week vs. the Bears from Waco. Rough-hewn QB Collin Klein led all K-State rushers with 113 yards in last week's thrilling 36-35 win over Art Briles' Baylor side.

Kentucky... HC Joker Phillips looks like he wants to pull ineffective starting QB Morgan Newton, who struggled again last week at LSU when completing only 6 of 20 passes for 57 yards in the Cats' 35-7 loss. Frosh backup Maxwell Smith, however, doesn't appear ready to contribute after completing only 1 of 5 passes in his short stint before Newton got another chance in the late going and led a belated TD drive in the final minutes that at least gave UK the spread cover at Baton Rouge.

LSU... Former starting QB Jordan Jefferson has been reinstated to the Tigers team after charges against him resulting from a bar fight on August 19 were reduced to a misdemeanor. Jefferson then saw limited action last weekend vs. Kentucky, and even scored a TD on his first snap on 1-yard run, although HC Les Miles insists he has no inclination to rotate QBs or bench starter Jarrett Lee, who completed only 8 of 21 passes butt for 169 yards in the 35-7 win over UK.

Louisville... Starting QB Will Stein's shoulder injury suffered Sept. 17 vs. Kentucky forced him to be scratched from last Saturday's 17-13 loss to Marshall. Unlike vs. the Wildcats, however, true frosh Teddy Bridgewater did not come to the rescue vs. the Thundering Herd, suffering a pair of picks and being held to just 16 YR on 15 carries in the 4-point loss.

Minnesota... The season has gone pear-shaped for the Gophers, already losers at home to New Mexico State and North Dakota State and whose first-year coach Jerry Kill was admitted to the hospital for the second time in less than three weeks with another bout of seizures prior to last week's game at Michigan. Kill was released from the hospital and coached last Saturday's game at Michigan, but maybe wished he hadn't in a 58-0 loss. Minny had to go the whole way with true frosh Max Shortell at QB after starter MarQueis Gray was ruled out with an injured toe on his left foot. Shortell completed only 11 of 22 passes and was sacked three times as the Gophers failed to convert any of their eleven third-down chances at Ann Arbor.

Ole Miss...Maybe Houston Nutt has found his QB. Juco redshirt Randall Mackey became the Rebs' third starter at the position this season last Saturday at Fresno State, passing for 214 yards and running for 35 more while providing a heretofore absent spark to the Ole Miss attack in a 38-28 win over the Bulldogs.

Nevada...PK Anthony Martinez missed last Saturday's game at Boise State with a hip injury, although strong-legged RS frosh Allen Hardison, a prep soccer standout, filled in admirably with a field goal in the 30-10 loss to the Broncos. Wolf Pack was also minus RS frosh QB Cody Fajardo, who suggested at a much longer look from HC Chris Ault when running for 139 yards at Texas Tech Sept. 24, due to shoulder injury. Third-stringer Mason Magleby tossed Nevada's only score of the day with a 53-yarder to Rishard Mathews in the last minute of the 20-point loss.

New Mexico... HC Mike Locksley was dismissed shortly after the Lobos' 48-45 OT loss to Sam Houston State on Sept. 24. Locksley, who had earlier survived a couple of unwelcome off-field incidents, was canned by AD Paul Krebs after not only the loss to the FCS Bearkats, but because a 19-year-old family friend was charged with DWI while driving a car registered to Locksley. "I just didn't see a good ending to the story," said AD Krebs after the dismissal. Defensive coordinator George Barlow will be the interim HC for the rest of 2011. although his regime began very inauspiciously with a 42-28 loss to rival new Mexico State last Saturday, UNM's third loss in a row to the Aggies.

New Mexico State... The Aggies, who had already lost QB Andrew Manley for the season with a knee injury, were also minus top WR Taveon Rogers (19 receptions and nearly 20 yards per catch, plus 26.3 per kick return) last Saturday at New Mexico. But it was all no problem for the Aggies, who rolled to a 42-28 win behind QB Matt Christian, who started eight games in 2010 and tossed 4 TD passes vs. the Lobos.

North Texas... Starting QB Derek Thompson was held out of last Saturday's game at Tulsa because of a lower-body injury (and we thought only the NHL referred to injuries in such general terms). Backup Andrew McNulty got the start vs. the Golden Hurricane but was picked off twice for TDs by Tulsa defenders in an eventual 41-24 loss. The Mean Green rallied late for the backdoor cover behind RS soph QB Brent Osborn, who tossed a pair of TDs in the final five minutes to make the score line a bit more flattering for UNT.. Thompson's status for FAU this week is unknown.

Northwestern... Sr. QB Dan Persa, out since last November with an Achilles tendon injury, made a triumphant return to the Cat lineup last week at Illinois when throwing 4 TD passes, but pulled himself from the game late in the 4th Q when apparently re-aggravating the injury. Backup Kain Colter was in for NU in its belated final drive of a bitter 38-35 loss to the Illini.

Ohio State... Beleaguered interim HC Luke Fickell, whose assignment is doubtful to last beyond this season, has suggested that he might re-open the QB derby prior to this week's game at Nebraska. And that would include RS soph Kenny Guiton and RS frosh Taylor Graham in the mix along with sr. Joe Bauserman and true frosh Braxton Miller. All in the wake of last Saturday's ugly 10-7 home loss to Michigan State when the struggling Braxton was pulled in the second half. Bauserman fared only slightly better, completing 7 of 14 passes, but did contribute to OSU's only TD of the day on a 33-yard TD pass with 10 seconds to play. The Buckeyes managed just 178 yards of offense vs. the nation's top-ranked defense from East Lansing.

Oregon State... RB Malcolm Agnew, who gained 223 yards in the opening shock loss to Sac State but was subsequently sidelined by a pulled hamstring, missed his third straight game last Saturday when the Beavers lost at Arizona State by a 35-20 count.

Penn State... Joe Paterno's QB merry-go-round continued last week at Indiana as Shades rotated Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin with little success until McGloin, in his second chance of the game, fired a 74-yard TD pass to Derek Moye immediately upon re-entering the game in the 3rd Q of an eventual 16-10 win over the Hoosiers.

Rutgers…QB controversy in East Brunswick? Maybe after touted true frosh Gary Nova relieved ineffective starter Chas Dodd in the second half last Saturday at Syracuse and promptly paced the Scarlet Knights to a heart-stopping 19-16 double-OY win. Nova completed 14 of 24 passes and a TD and led a late Rutgers rally at the Carrier Dome. Nova figured to get some snaps regardless vs. the Orange, but sources say HC Greg Schiano might be contemplating a starting QB switch to Nova. Stay tuned.

Tennessee... With star soph WR Justin Hunter out for the season with a knee injury suffered Sept. 17 at Florida, soph Da'Rick Rogers stepped up last weekend vs. Buffalo, catching 7 passes for 179 yards and 2 TDs from QB Tyler Bray in the Vols' 41-10 win.

TCU... RB Ed Wesley returned to the lineup last week vs. SMU for the first time since suffering a shoulder injury in the opener at Baylor. Wesley looked fine when rumbling for 96 yards on 12 carries, but the mistake-prone Frogs were ambushed by their Metroplex neighbors in OT, 40-33.

UAB... Starting QB Bryan Ellis, who suffered a concussion the previous week at East Carolina, was held out of last week's game at Troy. Although backup Jonathan Perry fared decently as he had the previous week vs. the Pirates, completing 19 of 38 passes and putting the Blazers in position for an upset win before two late Trojan scores gave Troy a 24-23 win. UAB has handily covered the point-spread in its last two games with Perry at the controls.

Utah... Ute QB Jordan Wynn suffered an injury to his non-throwing (left) shoulder near the end of the first half last Saturday vs. Washington. Backup Jon Hays went the entire second half for the Utes, who lost contact with the Huskies in an eventual 31-14 U-Dub romp. Utah was held scoreless with hays at the controls until a TD pass in the final minute of play. The status of Wynn, who endured serious surgery on his other shoulder (the one that throws) after last season, was unknown as of Sunday for this week's game vs. Arizona State.

Virginia...HC Mike London might be moving toward a permanent change at QB as true frosh David Watford again impressed off the bench in relief of starter Michael Rocco in last Saturday's narrow 21-20 OT escape vs. Idaho at Charlottesville. The Cavs were also minus top RB Kevin Parks (271 YR) for last week's cliffhanger vs. the feisty Vandals.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/05/2011 07:01 PM

    Notre Dame Preps For Air Force Option Attack

    Just in case Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly suspects his Fighting Irish might be overconfident at the thought of facing a service academy foe this week, all he has to do is bring out film of recent meetings vs. Navy and this week’s foe Air Force to get the attention of his troops.

    That might help the Notre Dame cause on Saturday against the visiting Fly Boys for the 3:30 p.m. (ET) kickoff at South Bend. As usual for Irish home games, NBC provides the national TV coverage.

    Oddsmakers are certainly not showing a lot of respect to the Falcons, who are listed at 15 ½-point underdogs on the Don Best odds screen. That number has dropped slightly since the Irish peaked at 16 ½-point favorites earlier in the week. The total is posted at a brisk 55½.

    We are relatively sure that Kelly is well aware of the risks of overlooking a service academy foe, and should not have too much of a sell job to don on his team which was blasted last year by Navy, 35-17. Indeed, the Irish have lost four of their last six vs. service academies since 2007, including a 41-24 spanking at the hands of the Force against a Charlie Weis-coached team in 2007, the last previous meeting between these squads.

    Air Force beating Notre Dame is nothing new, however. It became rather commonplace in the early 80s, when first Kenny Hatfield-coached Falcon squads, and then Fisher DeBerry-led Air Force teams, beat Gerry Faust’s Irish four times in a row between 1982-85.

    And the 41-24 scoreline favoring the Force in 2007 was hardly a surprise, given that the Falcs were 3 ½-point favorites in that game, the only time current AFA coach Troy Calhoun has faced the Fighting Irish.

    The Falcons enter South Bend as a confident bunch this week after a rousing 35-34 overtime win over Navy an Annapolis last week. Although Air Force blew an 18-point lead in regulation, it regrouped and prevailed in the extra session for a second straight win over the Midshipmen and all but sealing retention of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for a second straight year.

    It’s also worth pointing out that the Falcons have not experienced letdowns after recent Commander-in-Chief battles vs. Navy and West Point, covering the spread in six of eight such chances the past four years.

    Once again, Bob Diaco’s Notre Dame defense will have to deal with an option-centric attack similar to the Navy version that battered the Irish a year ago, and more dynamic than the Army option that lacked big-play ability and was beaten by Notre Dame, 27-3, at Yankee Stadium last November.

    In senior QB Tim Jefferson, however, the Falcons have an experienced option pilot who has burned teams with both his arm and legs in the past. The Air Force option has retained a sneaky downfield passing element with the crafty Jefferson, who throws sparingly but effectively, already tossing five TD passes and completing 70 percent of his tosses this season.

    Make no mistake, however, as Air Force still prefers the infantry route, its bristling rush offense once again ranked among the nation’s leaders (3rd at 364 ypg). Wingback Asher Clark is an acknowledged big-play threat, gaining an astonishing 9.2 yards per carry thus far in 2011, while the multi-skilled Jefferson is the Force’s second-leading rusher with 186 yards on his ledger.

    The real concerns for Air Force entering this battle, however, are defensively, where the Falcons have sprung a few leaks this season. In particular, they’ve been vulnerable against the run, allowing 227 ypg to rank a poor 113th nationally in that category.

    Looking to take advantage will be a Notre Dame offense that seems to be finding a groove behind soph QB Tommy Rees, who supplanted senior Dayne Crist as the starter after the opening week loss to South Florida. Rees is completing 65 percent of his passes and has developed quite a rapport with big-play threat Michael Floyd, who already has 47 catches through five games, although he’s not getting downfield as much as expected (only 11.9 yards per catch).

    Air Force’s shortcomings vs. the run might provide a chance for Irish RB Cierre Wood, with 550 yards rushing already, to do some real damage.

    Note, also, that although Kelly’s Irish won and covered handily in their last home game vs. Michigan State three weeks ago, they have still managed pointspread wins in just two of nine outings at South Bend since last season.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/05/2011 07:02 PM

Miami Hurricanes, Va Tech Hokies ACC Clash

The Hurricane warning from Miami in college football for this season has turned into a false alarm.

We’re not sure what they were calling the warning from Blacksburg, but anything that suggested Virginia Tech was a serious national title contender looks to have been a false alarm, too.

Thus, the backdrop for Saturday’s ACC Coastal showdown at Lane Stadium has lost a lot of its luster, with neither Miami (2-2) nor Virginia Tech (4-1) now mentioned among serious potential national title contenders.

A spot in the BCS, however, is still within reach of both as they prepare for Saturday’s kickoff at 12:30 p.m. (ET) at Blacksburg. The Hokies have been installed as 7 ½-point favorites at most Las Vegas sports books, with the total hovering at 45. ESPN’s GamePlan provides the TV coverage from Appalachia.

Miami’s problems have not been hard to predict, considering the controversies that swept over the program in the summertime. The fallout from those supposed transgressions is still to come, with potential NCAA sanctions looming on the horizon after the sordid details of improper benefits showered upon the Miami players by disgraced former booster Nevin Shapiro.

The investigative process, however, figures to be a long and winding one. Most ACC observers are watching for potential repercussions regarding first-year coach Al Golden, who inherited this hornet’s nest after last season and could be excused for wondering what he had gotten himself into in south Florida.

Some sources suggest that Golden could reappear on the radar for several projected high-profile job openings in the offseason, maybe even at alma mater Penn State should Joe Paterno be in this last year with the Nittany Lions, as some suspect in Happy Valley. ACC insiders believe Golden could probably walk away from Miami without incurring any buyout penalties due to the Shapiro-related problems. Stay tuned for more developments as the season progresses.

In the meantime, the 'Canes are trying to gain traction after splitting their first four games. The formula has been a bit different offensively than recent years, with Golden not asking QB Jacory Harris to do as much as predecessor Randy Shannon did the past few seasons.

Instead, Miami is slowing things down on the attack end and relying upon RBs Lamar Miller (who gained 163 yards last year vs. VT) and Mike James to move the chains and take some pressure off of Harris, who has correspondingly cut down on his mistakes from a year ago (6 TD, 3 INT).

Miami’s major concern at the moment is stopping the run, as opposing teams have gashed the 'Canes for 202 yards pg on the ground, ranking an uncharacteristic 105th nationally in that category.

That shortcoming could pose a problem against a Hokies offense that has been able to establish an infantry diversion rather effectively thus far. Behind slamming junior RB David Wilson (605 Yards, 5.7 YPC), VPI has gouged foes for 196 yards per game on the ground.

The concerns for coach Frank Beamer, however, revolve around 6-foot-6 soph QB Logan Thomas, who is proving to be a very slow study at a position that was so ably handled by Tyrod Taylor for the past four seasons. Thomas, despite his vast physical skills, still appears tentative and has not been confident throwing the ball downfield. Stats that include only four touchdown passes and five picks in five games confirm those difficulties.

For the moment, at least, Beamer is pivoting the offense around Wilson, although that strategy backfired last week vs. Clemson when the Tigers dared Thomas to beat them through the air. Thomas couldn’t and the Hokies went down to a humbling 23-3 home defeat. Improvement at the QB spot from Thomas is necessary if Beamer wants to make another run at a BCS spot.

In the meantime, another attack-minded Bud Foster Hokie defense will keep VPI competitive most weeks. Foster’s stop unit, led by playmaking LB Bruce Taylor, ranks fourth nationally in total defense, allowing only 249.6 yards pg.

Spread-wise, note that Beamer’s Hokies are in a skid, dropping their last four vs. the number, although they have mostly dominated the 'Canes in recent years. Indeed, Virginia Tech is 7-1 straight up and vs. the spread in the last eight meetings, and Beamer has covered nine of his last 10 against Miami.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/05/2011 07:04 PM

South Carolina Gamecocks Host Kentucky Wildcats

Never mind the SEC’s national TV contracts with ESPN and CBS. When it comes to South Carolina (4-1), we think we have a better network idea.

Perhaps Bravo TV? The E! Channel? Or what about SOAPnet?

Forgive us for wondering if Gamecock football has become more suitable for reality TV or soap operas after yet another QB change by coach Steve Spurrier, just in time for Saturday’s game against visiting Kentucky (2-3) at Williams-Brice Stadium.

Before one of those other TV networks gets their hands on South Carolina, you can tune into this one vs. the Wildcats on the ESPN GamePlan, with kickoff moved several hours earlier than originally scheduled, to 12:20 p.m. (ET).

Spurrier’s QB shuffle has not scared off Gamecock money in the Las Vegas sports books, where Carolina is a solid 21-point pick at most outlets, a price which seems more a condemnation of UK than endorsement of Carolina. More on the Wildcats in a moment.

The total on the game sits at 43½.

The specifics of Spurrier’s latest benching of QB Stephen Garcia, who was also demoted for the opener vs. East Carolina, less intrigues savvy SEC observers than a curious pattern that seems to have developed since Spurrier arrived in Columbia to replace Lou Holtz for the 2005 campaign.

Namely, has Spurrier lost his old Midas touch with his quarterbacks?

The switch to sophomore Connor Shaw for the Kentucky game hardly appears a foolproof plan, considering Shaw’s limited exposure and struggles in the past. That would include the East Carolina opener when Shaw was yanked in favor of Garcia with the Gamecocks trailing 17-0 in the second quarter. Garcia ended up sparking a rousing 56-37 comeback win that night in Charlotte, another curious twist in his saga at Columbia.

In the bigger picture, however, many SEC observers remain perplexed at the ongoing ups-and-downs Spurrier has endured with his QBs at Carolina, certainly a far cry from what was a consistent position of strength when Spurrier coached at Florida. In those days, Spurrier was considered the guru of QBs, and for good reason, having himself been a Heisman Trophy-winning QB as a Florida Gator in 1966, and tutoring a succession of accomplished Gator QBS, including 1996 Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel.

The same recipe, however, has not worked with Spurrier’s Gamecocks, who have suffered through the inconsistencies of Blake Mitchell, Syvelle Newton, Chris Smelley and Garcia at the QB spot over the past six years.

And Garcia, in particular, has frustrated, occasionally flashing brilliance and confirming Spurrier’s faith, but also brutally inconsistent, as has been the case most of this season. With only four TD passes and nine picks thus far in 2011, Garcia was ripe for another benching. The fact Auburn was daring him to throw last week and piling as many as eight defenders in the box to stop RB Marcus Lattimore in the stunning 16-13 loss to the Tigers served to illuminate Garcia’s inadequacies and hastened his demotion.

The Garcia situation puzzles even further, however, because of his tenuous relationship with Spurrier, including past benchings and suspensions. Many suggest that Spurrier is simply becoming more stubborn, refusing to admit the Garcia project was doomed for failure until halfway through his senior season, when indicators have been present for much longer that this episode as going to end badly.

If it seems like we’re ignoring Kentucky, we’re not, but we just can’t think of many good things to say about Joker Phillips’ Wildcats, who have lost three straight after a pair of unimpressive wins over Western Kentucky and Central Michigan to open the season.

UK’s problems somewhat resemble South Carolina’s on the attack end, although the Cats’ woes are exacerbated by the fact their “O” has no comparable big-play threats to Carolina’s aforementioned Lattimore (132 ypg rushing) or home run WR Alshon Jeffery.

To say the least, Kentucky ranks 113th in pass offense (139 ypg), 113th in scoring offense (15 ppg), and 118th in total offense (255 ypg).

Phillips has sorely missed last year’s explosive offensive elements, RB Derrick Locke plus WRs Chris “Hardball” Matthews and do-everything Randall Cobb, now dazzling the NFL as a Green Bay rookie star. Their collective absence, however, has contributed to the struggles of junior quarterback Morgan Newton, completing only 50% of his passes with six TDs and six picks. Indeed, Joker has yanked Newton in both of the last two games, although true frosh Maxwell Smith has hardly appeared a better alternative.

Offensive line struggles have haunted UK, with Newton already sacked 21 times; only Pitt has allowed more sacks (22) than the Wildcats. Phillips and offensive coordinator Randy Sanders believe Newton is simply holding onto the ball too long and taking sacks rather than getting rid of the pigskin when the protection breaks down.

If there has been a positive for Kentucky, it’s been the play of defensive coordinator Rick Minter’s pass defense, which ranks 11th nationally, allowing just 164 ypg and a mere 45.9% completions.

This is also a big revenge game for Carolina, which blew a 28-10 lead in the third quarter at Lexington last October en route to a stunning 31-28 defeat. The 'Cocks faded that night in the second half at Commonwealth Stadium after Lattimore was knocked out of the game in what would be Spurrier’s first-ever loss to UK as a player or coach after 17 previous wins.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24415 Followers:32
10/05/2011 07:06 PM

Trending: College Football Statistical Edges

The old mantra of “Run the ball and stop the run” may seem like in outdated cliché in college football with pass-happy spread offenses becoming all the rage. But five weeks into the 2011 college football season, the ground game has been a key factor for bettors.

Winning Bets
Every week in The Platinum Sheet, we mine the numbers for the top seven statistical mismatches in a series of offensive, defensive, and offense/defense differential categories. And during weeks three through five, rushing-based mismatches have proven to be the best bets.
The top one during that span: Yards per rush differential, which is 13-7-1 ATS (65%). This is a measure of a team’s yards-per-carry on the season minus YPC allowed, compared to their current week’s opponent. In Weeks 3-5, teams with a YPC differential advantage of +5.0 or better were a perfect 8-0 ATS. For Week 6, Texas A&M has a +3.7 YPC differential over Texas Tech, the week’s highest mark. Stanford isn’t far behind, with a +3.6 YPC differential over Colorado.

There are a couple other rushing-based statistical edges have been strong plays so far. The top seven rushing yards allowed per game edges over the past three weeks have gone 13-8 ATS (62%). Again, Texas A&M (over Texas Tech) has the week’s top edge here, at +166.0, with Virginia Tech (+144,1 over Miami-Fla.) the second-highest.

Rushing yards per game differential is 12-8-1 ATS (60%); Army (+320.0 over Miami Ohio) has the week’s biggest edge there.


Losing Bets
But teams that simply accumulate big rushing totals haven’t had the same advantages. The top rushing yards per game statistical edges are an even 10-10-1 ATS over the past three weeks, and just 10-11 SU.
Passing game edges haven’t been nearly as successful. The top passing yards per game edges and passing yards per game differential edges are 7-14 ATS (33%). In Week 5, the top six passing yards gained per game edges all lost ATS, and the No. 1 weekly edge in that category went 0-3 ATS in Weeks 3-5. Miami Ohio (+217.8 PYPG and +239.6 PYPG diff. over Army) leads the way in both of those categories for Week 6.

Surprisingly, yards per play differential has disappointed the most. The top statistical edges in YPP differential are 6-14-1 ATS (30%), worst among all statistical edges, and teams with a YPP differential advantage of +5.0 or better are 2-6-1 ATS (25%). Central Florida (+4.9 over Marshall) has Week 6’s biggest edge in YPP differential.

Looking merely at points-based edges has proven misleading as well. While the top statistical edges in points per game and scoring differential are 17-4 SU (81%), best among our statistical edges, the PPG edges are only 11-9-1 ATS (55%) and scoring differential is 9-12 ATS (43%).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: