Tech Trends - Week 6
October 5, 2011
Thursday, Oct. 6
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
CAL at OREGON...Tedford has covered 4 of last 5 vs. former employer. But Cal just 1-8 vs. line last 9 away from Berkeley, and Tedford just 5-10 as dog since '05. Ducks 9-3 vs. line last 12 at home vs. FBS foes. Oregon, based on team trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE...MTSU just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 at Murfreesboro, although Stockstill 11-7 last 18 as chalk. Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.
Friday, Oct. 7
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
BOISE STATE at FRESNO STATE...Boise has owned Fresno lately, winning and covering last five and 8 of last 9 meetings. Avg. score 54-15 last three meetings! Broncos have covered 10 of last 11 away from blue carpet. FSU 6-22 last 28 vs. line at Dog House. Boise, based on team trends.
Saturday, Oct. 8
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
OKLAHOMA vs. TEXAS (at Cotton Bowl, Dallas)...This series has swung back and forth since Stoops and Mack began hooking up in '99. Era of Stoops and five straight covers between 2000-04 turned into Horns on 4-0-1 unbeaten spread run 2005-09 before OU won and covered again LY. Stoops has now covered four straight as chalk away from home after dropping 7 of previous nine in role. Slight to OU, based on team trends.
ILLINOIS at INDIANA...Home team has won and covered last 3 and 7 of last 9 meetings. Hoosiers 6-2 vs. spread last 8 at Bloomington. Zook, however, has covered 8 of last 10 away from Champaign-Urbana. Slight to Indiana, based on series home trends.
VANDERBILT at ALABAMA...Dores haven't beaten Tide since '84 when George McIntyre's Vandy team beat Ray Perkins' Bama by a 23-14 score. Dores now 0-5 their last five as road dog after solid mark previously in role (18-4 previous 22). Nick on 21-10 spread run since '09, 31-15 last 46 on board since late '07. Nick also 9-2 last 11 laying 20 or more. Bama, based on team trends.
BOSTON COLLEGE at CLEMSON...Spaziani on 6-15 spread slide since late '09. Dabo 3-0 as home chalk TY, but only 1-4-1 last 6 laying DD at Death Valley. Clemson, based on team trends.
UCONN at WEST VIRGINIA...UConn finally scored first SU win over WVU LY, although Huskies now have two straight covers in series. WVU has won and covered previous five meetings. UConn just 2-4 last 6 as road dog after 6-0 mark prior. Slight to WVU, based on team trends.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at UAB...Blazers just 2-5 vs. line last 7 at home and 2-6 vs. number last 8 on board overall since late LY. MSU no covers last 4 TY and Dan Mullen only 14-15 vs. line with MSU, although they are 4-0 vs. line against non-SEC teams away from home. MSU, based on team trends.
IOWA at PENN STATE...Shades no covers first five TY and last seven overall since late 2010. Iowa has won and covered last three years in series. Ferentz 10-5 last 15 vs. line away from Iowa City (though 2-5 last 7). Iowa, based on team trends.
PITT at RUTGERS...Road team had covered four straight in series prior to Pitt's 41-21 home in LY. Panthers 7-3-2 vs. line away from home dating to Wannstedt years and early '09. Rutgers has covered last four TY. Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.
MINNESOTA at PURDUE...Purdue won and covered LY, breaking 2-game losing streak to Gophers. Boilermakers, however, are 1-8 their last 9 as Ross-Ade chalk. Minnesota 5-2 vs. line last seven on road. Minnesota, based on team trends.
LOUISVILLE at NORTH CAROLINA...Cards 6-1 vs. line away from home for Charlie Strong. Louisville, based on Cards' road trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NC STATE...Chips now 3-10 last 13 vs. spread. Note that Tom O'Brien did enter this season 24-11 vs. line since '08. But Wolfpack no covers first two as DD chalk this year. Slight to NCS, based on extended trends.
MEMPHIS at RICE...Memphis 2-15 SU and 7-10 vs. line since Larry Porter arrived LY. Tigers haven't faced Rice since 2008. Owls have covered five straight at home since early 2010. Rice, based on team trends.
ARMY at MIAMI-OHIO...Army has been routed in two trips to MAC sites this season. West Point reverting back to previous home-road form after inside-out pattern the past two years for Ellerson; this year the home team has covered in first five Black Knights games. Miami-O, however, notoriously poor home chalk (0-1 TY, no covers last nine in role). Army, based on team trends.
BOWLING GREEN at WESTERN MICHIGAN...BGSU 15-6 in road dog role since '07. Broncs, however, have covered six straight since late 2010, including 41-7 win over Falcs late LY. BGSU ready for Waldo adventure. Slight to WMU, based on team trends.
TEMPLE at BALL STATE...Temple 15-7 vs. line away since '08. Cards won at home vs. Army but still just 2-12 last 14 on board at Muncie. Temple, based on team trends.
ARIZONA STATE at UTAH...First conference meeting between these two since the days of the old WAC in 1977. Sun Devils 9-2 vs. number last 11 away from Tempe. Utes no covers last four in Salt Lake City. ASU, based on team trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at BYU...Cougs just 5-10 vs. number last 15 as Provo chalk. SJSU has covered last four TY. SJSU, based on team trends.
EASTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...EMU quietly covering some games on road, now four straight and five of last six away from Ypsilanti. Although Eagles have been brutalized the last four years vs. Toledo, which has won and covered all handily. Rockets 4-1 last 5 as Glass Bowl chalk. Toledo, based on series trends.
OHIO at BUFFALO...Solich 4-2 SU and vs. spread against Bulls. Solich also 7-2 last 9 vs. points as MAC visitor. Buffalo no covers last 7 as MAC host. Solich, based on team trends.
KENT STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Tough sledding for Hazell, 1-4 vs. line for Flashes. Kent 3-6 as DD road dog since '07, and only 6-13-1 last 20 on board since late '09. NIU no covers last four this season. NIU, based on team trends.
AUBURN at ARKANSAS...Hogs had won and covered two straight vs. Tigers prior to 65-43 loss to Cam LY. Petrino has covered 7 of last 8 as host. Arkansas, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at GEORGIA TECH...Jackets running wild with wins in first five TY (4-1 vs. line). Teams haven't met since '07, when Chan was still coaching GT. Maryland 1-3 vs. line for Edsall TY, and note Edsall was only 12-15 as road dog at UConn from 2005-10. GT, based on team trends.
COLORADO at STANFORD...Tree on 12-game SU and 7-game cover streak. Stanford has also covered its last five as DD chalk. Buffs no covers last seven as true visitor. Stanford, based on team trends.
GEORGIA at TENNESSEE...These two have taken turns whomping one another the past two years. Georgia's 41-14 rout LY was also first Dawg cover vs. UT after Vols had covered previous four. Richt just 2-7 vs. line last nine away from Athens. UT 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. FBS foes since mid '2010. Tennessee, based on team and extended series trends.
MIAMI-FLORIDA at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer dominating this series lately, 7-1 SU and vs. line last eight meetings, and 9-1 last 10 vs. spread against Canes. Al not-so-Golden thus far with Miami, 1-3 vs. line . Beamer, based on series trends.
AIR FORCE at NOTRE DAME...Teams haven't met since 2007 when Falcs won 41-24 at South Bend over Charlie Weis' worst team. Brian Kelly now 2-4-3 vs. line at South Bend. AFA, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN MISS at NAVY...Mids 3-1 vs. line TY and have covered their last three as chalk. USM only 4-6 vs. spread its last 10 away from home. Navy, based on team trends.
UNLV at NEVADA...Fremont Cannon! Wolf Pack has won last six Fremont Cannon battles and has covered five of those, including last three at Mackay Stadium. Rebs 2-13 vs. line last 15 on road. Chris Ault 21-7 vs. line as Reno chalk since returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in 2004. Nevada, based on team and series trends.
MARSHALL at UCF...UCF has won last six SU vs. Herd and covered 6 of last 7 meetings. O'Leary 9-2 vs. line last 11 as host and 22-8 last 30 on board overall (though 0-2 last 2). Herd only 1-6 vs. points last 7 as visitor. UCF, based on team and series trends.
LA TECH at IDAHO...La Tech has covered last four meetings. Vandals no covers last 8 vs. WAC foes at Kibbie Dome. La Tech, based on team and series trends.
ARIZONA at OREGON STATE...Mike Stoops has lost last 9 SU vs. FBS foes, 2-7 vs. line in those games. But Beavs on 1-5, and 2-7 last 9, spread slide. Arizona, based on OSU negatives.
KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...Gundy 13-4 vs. line since LY and 4-1 last 5 laying DD. Cowboys routed Turner Gill 48-14 LY. KU boat-raced at GT and now 2-8 vs. line last 10 as visitor. OSU, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN...Wolverines looking to break 0-11 spread run on Big Ten road that extends back early 2008 and Rich-Rod first season. First meeting vs. NU since late 2008 . Pat Fitzgerald just 6-11 vs. line since 2010 and just 2-3 last 5 as home dog, although he's 19-11 last 30 as dog. Slight to NU, based on extended trends.
EAST CAROLINA at HOUSTON...Cougs 7-4-1 vs. line last 11 at home (2-0 TY), and 5-1-1 last 7 laying DD at Robertson Stadium. Slight to UH, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at BAYLOR...Paul Rhoads only 9-9 as dog at ISU since 2009. Bears 13-7 in chalk role since 2005 and Guy Morriss years. Slight to Baylor, based on recent chalk mark.
KENTUCKY at SOUTH CAROLINA...Revenge for Spurrier in what was Joker's best UK win by 31-28 count LY. Joker on 2-9 spread slide since mid 2010, and Cats have dropped 6 of last 7 vs. line away. SC, based on team trends.
FLORIDA STATE at WAKE FOREST...Noles have won and covered handily the last two vs. Wake after Deacs had won previous three and covered previous five in series. Grobe 11-5 last 16 as Winston-Salem dog. Wake, based on team trends.
TEXAS A&M at TEXAS TECH...A&M has won last two and covered last three in series. Ags have covered 7 of last 8 as Big XII visitor. A&M, based on team trends.
MISSOURI at KANSAS STATE...Mizzou on 5-game series win streak but visiting team has covered last three meetings. If Bill Snyder a dog note 10-5 mark in role since returning to KSU sidelines in 2009. KSU, based on Bill Snyder marks.
SYRACUSE at TULANE...Wave more like the undertow at Superdome, where Bob Toledo 3-15 vs. spread last 18 on board (0-2 TY). Syracuse, based on Tulane home woes.
WYOMING at UTAH STATE...Hard-luck team of year USU could easily be 4-0 SU instead of 1-3 right now. But Utags only 2-7 last 9 vs. line at Logan. Dave Christensen 10-2 as road dog at Wyo since 2009. Wyo, based on team trends.
FLORIDA at LSU...Gators 19-8 vs. spread last 27 away from Swamp. Gators had covered five straight in series prior to that 33-29 Tiger thriller LY. The Hat is only 9-22 vs. line last 31 at Baton Rouge. Florida, based on team trends.
OHIO STATE at NEBRASKA...Tend to downplay the past excellent Tressel numbers especially on road where his teams were 25-9-1 vs. line last 35 entering this season, but laid an egg at Miami. Huskers, however, failed to cover first three at Lincoln TY and are just 13-20 vs. line at home since '07. Slight to OSU, based on team trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at UCLA...Cougs 8-2 vs. line last 10 in series and Paul Wulff has covered 5 of last 7 on road. Slick Rick was 7-2 as chalk at UCLA, departure from poor numbers in role at previous career stops, before non-cover against SJSU. UCLA only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 at Rose Bowl. WSU, based on team trends.
TCU at SAN DIEGO STATE...TCU only 14-14 vs. line away since 2007, however. Aztecs 7-2 vs. line at home since LY. Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at AKRON...FIU has won and covered last four and five of last six away from home. Zips now 9-21-1 last 31 vs. spread since late '08. FIU, based on team trends.
TROY at UL-LAFAYETTE...ULL got the cover LY after Troy had covered previous five meetings. Ragin' Cajuns now on 7-3 spread uptick since late 2010, although they're only 1-6 vs. line last 7 at Cajun Field. Troy, based on series and team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at UL-MONROE...ULM had covered five straight in series prior to 34-20 loss at ASU LY. Red Wolves 4-1 vs. line TY. Slight to ASU, based on recent trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at NORTH TEXAS...UNT on a 3-game cover streak for Dan McCarney. Howard 3-11 vs. line last 14 on board and 2-5 vs. spread last seven as Sun Belt visitor.