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-- Stults is 5-1, 2.98 in his last seven starts.
-- Zimmerman is 3-1, 3.71 in his last six starts.
-- Lee is 4-2, 1.76 in his last eight starts. Braves are 13-1 in Medlen's last 14 starts (8-1, 1.58 in his last 11 starts).
-- Arroyo is 6-3, 2.82 in his last eleven starts. Blanton is 1-1, 3.38 in his last five starts.
-- Guthrie is 3-0, 2.55 in his last seven starts. Floyd is 3-1, 2.52 in his last four outings.
-- MGonzalez is 3-0, 1.93 in his last five starts.
-- Pettitte is 2-2, 2.37 in his last five starts.
-- McDonald is 0-2, 13.50 in his last four starts. Wood is 0-2, 4.91 in his last four starts.
-- Gee is 2-4, 4.12 in his last six starts.
-- Leblanc is 1-3, 4.22 in his last six starts.
-- Porcello is 1-2, 5.84 in his last five starts. Pelfrey was 0-0, 2.29 in three starts LY, before getting hurt- he made 31+ starts from '08-'11.
-- RHernandez was 0-3, 9.42 in three starts LY.
-- Griffin is 1-1, 6.85 in his last five starts. Maurer is making MLB debut; he was 9-2, 3.20 in 24 AA starts LY.
-- Dempster is 1-2, 7.71 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 1-2, 4.29 in his last five starts. Myers was a closer LY; he was 7-14, 4.46 in 33 starts for Houston in '11.
-- Mets won first two games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Natonals won first two games, 2-0/3-0.
-- Braves won their first two games, 9-2/7-5.
-- White Sox won their first two games, 1-0/5-2.
-- Red Sox won their first two games, 8-2/7-4.
-- Cleveland won its first two games, 4-1/3-2.
-- San Diego lost its first two games, outscored 19-6.
-- Miami lost its first two games, hasn't scored a run yet.
-- Phillies lost first two games, allowing 16 runs.
-- Kansas City lost its first two games, scoring two runs.
-- Bronx lost its first two games, allowing 15 runs.
-- Toronto lost its first two games, scoring three runs.
-- Five of last seven Wood starts went over the total.
-- Five of last six Stults starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Zimmerman starts went over total.
-- Lee's last eight starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Blanton starts stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Porcello starts went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Guthrie starts stayed under total.
-- Four of last five MGonzalez starts stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Griffin starts went over the total.
-- Three of last four Dempster road starts went over total.
-- Six of last eight Buehrle home starts stayed under.
-- Chi-Pitt-- Home side won nine of last ten Cuzzi games.
-- SD-NY-- Home side won last seven Hudson games; last four went over.
-- Mia-Wsh-- Eight of last ten Schrieber games went over total.
-- Phil-Atl-- Home team won last five Foster games.
-- LAA-Cin-- Home team is 13-4 in last 17 Bucknor games; seven of last nine games went over.
-- Det-Min-- Favorites won 11 of last 12 Hickox games.
-- KC-Chi-- Nine of last twelve Wendelstedt games stayed under.
-- Balt-TB-- Four of last five Reynolds games stayed under.
-- Sea-A's-- All three Tumpane games LY went over total.
-- Bos-NY-- Underdogs won five of last seven Dimuro games.
-- Cle-Tor-- Five of last seven Barksdale games stayed under; over last six years, home side is 126-70 with Barksdale behind plate.
The Phillies look to build on their 15-4 record in Cliff Lee's last 19 road starts against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, APRIL 4
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.852; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 15.076
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Under
Game 953-954: San Diego at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 14.900; NY Mets (Gee) 14.241
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over
Game 955-956: Miami at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (LeBlanc) 13.903; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.098
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-260); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.309; Atlanta (Medlen) 14.982
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over
Game 959-960: Detroit at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.326; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Under
Game 961-962: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.294; White Sox (Floyd) 14.708
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Over
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.539; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.937
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over
Game 965-966: Seattle at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Maurer) 16.059; Oakland (Griffin) 16.367
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Under
Game 967-968: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 14.940; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Myers) 14.356; Toronto (Buehrle) 15.479
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-160); Under
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 14.736; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.202
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under
On Thursday the free MLB Totals Play is on the Over in the Cleveland at Toronto game. Rotation numbers 969/970 at 7:05 eastern. This game looks like a good spot for a higher scoring game. Both Pitchers are of mediocre spring trainings and have been hit pretty good vs their opponents tonight. B. Myers makes the start for Cleveland and his spring was particularly miserable as he pitched to a 9.00 era allowing 21 earned runs in 21 innings and opposing hitter batted .383 against him. In his lone start here he lost and allowed 7 runs in 6+ innings good for a 6.75 era. Tonight he will take on M. Buehrle who is making his regular season debut for the Jays. Buehrle has allowed 19 earned runs in 29 innings vs Cleveland in home starts and allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings in 2 starts vs the Indians last season. His spring was very average as he allowed 9 earned runs in 18 innings and allowed a .307 batting average against. Both teams struggled at the plate last night, look for this one to go over the total.
The Indians and Jays will wrap up a three-game set with Brett Myers against Mark Buehrle. Brett Myers makes his return to the starting rotation after spending all of 2011 as a reliever and he had some issues with the transition in Spring Training. Myers repeatedly tired in the 4th and 5th inning of his starts and a starter leaving the game early means that the manager has to use the less attractive options out of the bullpen to preserve his more reliable arms for the later innings. Myers has posted an above average ground ball rate throughout his career, which could be harmful to him both on turf and with the Indians' mediocre infield defense.
Mark Buehrle could find out that pitching on turf for all of your home games is not the most fun thing for a pitcher. The crafty southpaw makes his return to the American League with a home start in Toronto, where he has allowed 22 runs and 37 hits in six starts. On turf for his career, Buehrle has a 4.37 ERA. Unlike last season, when the Indians struggled mightily against left handed pitching, they should be much better this season. They added switch hitter Nick Swisher, right handed power bat Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs, who hits lefties quite well, and Mike Aviles, who is an above average hitter against southpaws. Carlos Santana hits 45 average points better against lefties and has an OPS that is 70 points higher.
With Myers's fatigue issues, Buehrle's struggles on turf, and two offenses that match up pretty well against these two starters, this game should go over the total.
No this is not a misprint, I am saying stay on the Mets on the same odds as yesterday. Facing a lefthander didn't phase the lefthanded power in the New York lineup and the much travelled Eric Stults is hardly an imposing figure.
New York again has an advantage on the hill with Dillon Gee, who is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA against San Diego lifetime. The Mets can complete an unexpected series sweep to start the season.