Some Monday MLB Helpful Information
16 Replies | 337 ViewsOn 04/01/2013 09:40 AM in MLB
Cliff Notes - Opening Day MLB
Red Sox at Yankees: Clearly with the Boston and all the talk of their demise, there may well be value, even against Sabathia. Sox would likely start David Ross behind the plate, since Saltamacchia sucks v/LHP, and Ross has hit two jacks off of CC. Throw in Johnny Gomes who typically crushes LHP and I would not rule out taking the Red Sox. But, given the intensity of game one, I can't overlook Youkilis, who bombed off of Lester last year. Obviously can't look at weather patterns yet, but with SP's on a serious pitch count, it's the bullpens who may decide a ton of these early games. the acquisition of Hanrahan could be huge for Boston, and with Bailey out a year we really don't know what to expect. The Yankees are DFL in Spring Training BA at a mere .248. It's been my experience that these things just don't turn themselves around that quickly, and Boston has shown very little power this Spring, so we'll look hard at the under here.
Marlins at Nationals: Without a doubt with Strasburg pitching and the expectations, this ML will probably not be playable. However, last season we did real well taking these dead dogs at cheap RL prices early in the season, and this could be a case of that. Strasburg's probably on a 50 pitch count, lol. Nationals already had a great bullpen with Clippard and Storen, so add in Rafael Soriano and they WILL be tough to come back on. Hard to imagine where Nolasco's heads at since he's already being discussed as a trade-deadline acquisition for someone. He's pitched fairly well against the Nats, save Zimmerman, and unless and until Washington shows they can score (they could not last season) then even the thought of laying -1.5 RL is out of the question, and we rarely do that with a home team that won't get the last at bat if they're ahead by one. With nobody in the Miami lineup to protect Stanton, this is yet another under potential. Actually, most Marlin games will be. Early last season many thought (including myself) that Marlin Park (or whatever they call it) was going to be an over venue. It is/was not. Down the lines it's short, but cavernous from gap to gap.
Padres at Mets: Well, with the entire world hating the Mets, we might have to look at a cheap home team. Without Headley in the lineup for the Padres they'll likely put Forsythe at third, which is simply going to allow people to pitch around Alonso and/or Quentin. Both Murphy and Wright are questionable for the start of the season, so here's another potential 2-1 game. Yes, I know they moved the fences in at Citi Field, but not nearly enough. It's always been hard to wrap my money around Volquez actually finding the plate, but with Bobby Parnell as the Mets closer, that's equally hard to do. Certainly easier matchups to figure out, although the Padres have shown some pop this Spring.
Cubs at Pirates: Well, the Pirates made us a ton of money the 1H of last season, but not so sure they'll be quite as much value on them this season. I certainly don't like Grilli taking over the closing duties from Hanrahan, and the Pirates bring back essentially the same lineup as last year, with the exception of Russell Martin behind the plate. Not sure at his age how many games he can play, though, and with no DH in the NL, we're going to have to pick our spots more carefully with these guys. Travis Snyder will be in outfield against Samardjia and most all RHP, while Tabata will surely start out there v/LHP. With Snyder's pop I would think Pittsburgh may score a few more runs. The Cubs did little or nothing to add to little or nothing (Schierholz does not count). They are going to give up a shitload of runs (O/U for Edwin Jackson is 40 homers) and with Carlos Marmol closing, the O/U for his appearances (in save situations!) is 20! With that in mind, the Pirates may actually be well over the -150 threshold, especially since Burnett is typically better early in the season.
Colorado at Milwaukee: I really do wonder how the Brewers will fare without Corey Hart in the lineup. The first thing that struck me about this game is whatever the total is. Because it these two teams, my guess is that the total will be pretty high for game one, and my guess is the roof will be closed. Then again, the Brewers have one of the worst bullpens in baseball (still) and Gorzellany is probably their best relief pitcher. With everyone healthy the Rockies ARE going to score runs, no matter where they play or what time of year it is. Chacin was scratched from his last Spring Training start, but the team said he's good to go here. He's always been a much better pitcher away from Coors Field (who hasn't) and he's much tougher on RHH, which is what the Brewers are loaded with. I don't usually trust Gallardo a whole lot, and the Rockies have seen and hit him enough for me to think this could be our first live/dead dog of the season.
Angels at Reds: Obviously two of the most public teams early in the season with high hopes, and with Hamilton and Frieri being added to the roster, the Angels may be to expensive to bet on, especially against weaker teams. Getting Sean Burnett from the Nationals might prove to be their biggest acquisition, because the did have some massive holes in the middle to late relief last season. Weaver has not pitched terribly will this Spring. Reds added Sin Soo-Choo, and in Great American he could have a freak show year. After that, it's the same old Reds with a nasty bullpen and the capability of putting up 10 runs on any given day. Since the Reds haven't seen much of Weaver and the Angels have seen less of Cueto, this game may well stay under what will clearly be an inflated total in what's known as an "over" ballpark, but not so much if the weather's typical for that time of year.
Royals-White Sox: Everyone's trendy team, Kansas City. They've no doubt upgraded their starting pitching, but I've never been a big fan of Santana. I think in the summer in that stadium, when the ball carries, he gets crushed. However, it's Shields in this game so we will worry about that later. I still think he's living more off what he did two years ago, and for someone that pitched half his games in the pitcher friendly Trop, he does give up some long balls. He doesn't walk a ton of people, but even Alexi Ramirez has two bombs off him, and I have found that when Alexi hits, Chicago wins. But, Shields IS 9-1 in April the last three years. I just really wonder if we aren't over reacting to the Royals acquisitions and the Spring they're having. They've got essentially the same sticks, so they've typically been a play-on against LHP, and as fate would have it, Chris Sale is a left handed pitcher. I actually remember where I was last May 12th when the Royals beat him 5-0 in Chicago. A sportsbook in Vegas w/@goodfella00 getting in all sorts of trouble. I'll bet Sale remembers that, too. Butler owns this kid, and several other Royals do too. Not sure I like Reed as a closer, and with Crain likely out for the start of the season, that could hurt some. I do like Thornton and Jones, however. Have to lean to the trendy Royals a bit, if for no other reason than they hit Sale in the past and the price will probably be right. Also one of the few games, weather pending, that I could make a case for an over