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dave
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On 03/30/2013 09:53 AM in Cappers
Memphis vs. Minnesota, 03/30/2013 20:00
Point Spread: -4/-105 Memphis

FREE PLAY for 3/30/13
Memphis Grizzlies -4
The Key: The Grizzlies have struggled on the road of late, but this is a good spot for them. They ended a two-game skid last night with a strong performance against Houston and won't let up in their pursuit of home-court advantage in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. They are only a half-game behind the fourth-place Los Angeles Clippers and one game back of third-place Denver. Minnesota played last night as well and pulled off a big upset against the Thunder. That win puts it in a letdown spot tonight. The Timberwolves are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. Also, Memphis is better equipped to handle playing without rest because it is better defensively and has more quality depth. The Grizzlies are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games when playing without a day of rest. They are even 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. While Memphis has been a great investment on no rest, Minnesota fits into fade situation dealing with fatigue. Consider that fading home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing their 5th game in 7 days, provided they have won just 25% to 40% of their games on the season, has produced a 58-26 ATS mark since 1996. Memphis has won the first two meetings of the season handily, but don't expect Minnesota to have its revenge. The T-Wolves are a soft 8-17 ATS when playing with double revenge this season. Lay the points.

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