marksmoneymakers Posts:19675 Followers:140
03/29/2013 09:40 AM

NCAAB

Friday, March 29

Where the action is: Friday's Sweet 16 dogs drawing bets

The second slate of Sweet 16 games Friday is a little more wide open compared to Thursday’s spreads. Teams like Oregon and Florida Gulf Coast are getting double-digits from the oddsmakers, but that isn't scaring off bettors.

We talk with Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at South Point in Las Vegas, and Michael Stewart, oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action heading into Friday’s regional semifinal games:

Louisville Cardinals vs. Oregon Ducks – Open: +9.5, Move: +10

The early money on the spread has bumped this No. 1 vs. No. 12 matchup to double digits. But since the move, books have taken two-way action, even seeing a slight lean toward the upstart Ducks in terms of parlay action. The total has also been adjusted, jumping from 127.5 point to 130.

“They pushed it up from the original number,” says Osborne. “We had some sharp money come in this morning and drive this one up.”

Michigan Wolverines vs. Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -2.5, Move: -1.5, Move: -2

With two big-name programs involved, the public money will likely be split between Michigan and Kansas. Osborne says, depending on where the wiseguys go, there could be a hook come tipoff.

“These are heavyweights. And sometimes people don’t know who to bet and they’d rather sit back and watch this one,” he says.

CarbonSports.ag is seeing more money coming back on Michigan and could drop this spread again by Friday night.

"If anything, I can see us going back to Kansas -1.5 as more money is starting to show for the dog in this game," says Stewart.

Action on the total has also been split, with the number moving up as high as 136.5.

"We've seen more over money on this game, but not enough to move off our number," adds Stewart. "As we get closer to game time and the public starts betting more on the over, I can see us going higher."

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: -1, Move: -2

Duke opened only briefly as a 1-point favorite for this regional semifinal showdown. Sharp money jumped on the Blue Devils and bumped the spread to -2, which is drawing good two-way money heading towards Friday.

“It’s dead even right now,” says Osborne. “It’s like Democrats and Republicans. There’s a strong opinion for MSU and a strong opinion for Duke.”

The total has moved slightly from 133.5 to 134 points.

"We opened 134 and while 70 percent of the action is on the under, we believe we'll see over money being bet on this game as we get closer to game time," says Stewart.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida Gators – Open: -11.5, Move: -13

While sharp money pushed this spread to as high as -13, Osborne says the public is backing the Cinderella Eagles in this Sweet 16 game. Osborne moved to Florida -13 but thought it was too high, he’s also brought FGCU’s moneyline odds down, not wanting to risk another shocker from the Eagles.

“Last Sunday, the dogs went 5-3 but for us they really went 4-4 because the public was all over Florida Gulf Coast like it was a favorite,” says Osborne. “And they’re on them for this game as well. And they’re really whacking the moneyline.”

CarbonSports.ag watched wiseguys push Florida as high as -13.5 before settling back down to -13. Stewart also expects the public to pour in on the No. 15 seed FGCU on Friday.

"We're back to Florida -13 as 60 percent of the action is on them," he says. "It's a game where the public is all over the underdog and the wiseguys are pounding the favorite."

The total for this game has climbed from 132.5 to 135 points.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:19675 Followers:140
03/29/2013 09:41 AM

Small Schools, Like FGCU, Can Struggle in Big Stadiums
by Jason Logan

Alico Arena in Fort Myers holds 4,500 fans for the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles’ home games.

Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas holds almost 109,000. So it's safe to say FGCU will be walking into a completely different world when it takes on the Florida Gators as 13-point underdogs in the Sweet 16 Friday night.

The Eagles shocked their way to the South Regional semifinal by knocking off the Georgetown Hoyas and San Diego State Aztecs at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. That venue’s 20,328-seat capacity, while a far cry from Alico Arena, is a drop in the bucket compared to the volume of “Jerry’s World”.

And it’s that drastic change in venue – and depth perception – that has sharp bettors fading Florida Gulf Coast for Friday’s game. The Eagles have been bet up from +11.5 to +13 as of Thursday.

“(Playing in Cowboys Stadium) definitely matters more for a team like FGCU, that doesn't play in these types of environments very often,” professional handicapper Teddy Covers says. “That's at least a part of the reason why Florida took the early wiseguy money this week.”

Shooting inside a football stadium is much tougher due to the depth of the backdrop. Players have a hard time gauging their distance from the goal and can struggle if they’re not used to their focus point against a wide-open background – even more so in a 3 million square-foot stadium that measures 900 feet from end zone wall to end zone wall.

“The venue is very important,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “When you have some teams that are used to playing in small gyms where the hoops are right up against the wall, the focus point is much closer. Now, their focus point gets lost against a big background. Sure, they have a couple days to practice and get used to the bigger venue, but it does affect their shooting and it does go into (the odds).”

Korner recalls an old Catholic school rivalry between Notre Dame and San Francisco and how the Fighting Irish would never play the Dons in their home arena due to the close confines and the advantage San Francisco would have shooting the basketball. Instead, Notre Dame lobbied to have the games in the Bay Area held in larger arenas.

As for the venue’s impact on the total, Korner says it has a bigger presence in games involving high-scoring teams because oddsmakers can hide their adjustments easier with all those points on the board. Friday’s total between FGCU and Florida has been bet up from 132.5 to 135 points since post. The two teams are a combined 3-1 over/under in their four tournament games so far.

Football stadiums have been hosting college hoops for some time now and only nine venues – all football stadiums – are approved to host the NCAA Final Four: Cowboys Stadium, Georgia Dome, Louisiana Superdome, Metrodome, Reliant Stadium, University of Phoenix Stadium, Edward Jones Dome, Lucas Oil Stadium (hosting the Midwest Regional), and Ford Field. Over the past five seasons, games held in those nine stadiums have gone 28-32-1 over/under.

The Georgia Dome, the host of this year’s Final Four, has been a regular spot for NCAA basketball with the conference tournaments and regional action calling it home. Since 2008-09, games inside the Georgia Dome are 15-12 over/under.

The best football stadiums for NCAA unders over the past five seasons are Lucas Oil Stadium (2-6 over/under), Reliant Stadium (2-5 over/under) and last year’s Final Four host, the Louisiana Superdome (0-3 over/under).

Cowboys Stadium has only hosted one NCAA basketball game in its three-year existence – a non-conference clash between Texas and North Carolina on Dec. 19, 2009. The teams – both accustomed to playing in larger venues – shot a combined 44 percent from the field in a 103-90 win for the Longhorns that eclipsed the 152-point total.

Of those 61 games played in football stadiums over the past five seasons, eight have involved teams from small mid-major conferences (Gonzaga, St. Mary’s VCU, Butler, BYU, Northern Iowa) and have combined to go 3-5 over/under. The mid-major team has gone 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS with one of those games featuring both VCU and Butler (Butler 70, VCU 62 – Bulldogs covered as 3.5-point favorites).

Florida Gulf Coast enters Friday's Sweet 16 contest a perfect 6-0 ATS in lined games this season. Florida owns an 18-14 ATS mark on the year and has covered as a favorite in its two NCAA tournament games.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:19675 Followers:140
03/29/2013 09:41 AM

Free College Basketball Prediction From Vegas Sports Informer

Take 880 Florida (-13) over Florida Gulf Coast (8 p.m., Friday, March 29)

Sorry FGCU, but your glass slipper falls off Friday night! Look for the Gators to play some tough in-your-face defense against FGCU, and if the Gators slow down the Eagles I believe this game gets out of control early in the second half. Florida just too good to be dominated by these young Eagles, and the feel-good story of Florida Gulf Coast comes to an end again Friday night. Florida is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games, and this streak continues Friday. There are some very heavy hitters out here in Vegas that are putting big money down on the Gators. That is the side we want to be on, and right now this looks like one of the few teams that might be able to challenge Louisville for the National Championship. Go with the Gators.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:19675 Followers:140
03/29/2013 09:42 AM

DAVID CHAN
CBB

Oregon vs. Louisville - March 29, 2013 - 7:15 PM
Pick: Louisville -9.5 -115

CHAN'S **10** Oregon/Louisville SUPER-BLOWOUT
This is a 10* play on Louisville. Oregon is going to face its toughest test of the year here, and I simply feel that Louisville's dominant defensive play will prove to be too much for the Ducks (the Cardinals forced the Rams into a season high 20 turnovers, and out-rebounded them 29-24). I'm laying the points!

NCAAB 1st Half: Michigan vs Kansas - March 29, 2013 - 7:37 PM
Pick: Kansas -1 -110

This is a "FIRST HALF NO-LIMIT" on Kansas.
David Chan is constantly "looking ahead" for the best possible lines he can find for his customers; often he'll come across a situation that he feels offers fantastic value and will release that selection "early". That is the case here. Expect the analysis to be posted for this pick shortly.

Florida Gulf Coast vs. Florida - March 29, 2013 - 9:57 PM
Pick: Florida -13 -106

This is a "BLOOD-BATH" on Florida.
David Chan is constantly "looking ahead" for the best possible lines he can find for his customers; often he'll come across a situation that he feels offers fantastic value and will release that selection "early". That is the case here. Expect the analysis to be posted for this pick shortly.

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thatman-z Posts:764 Followers:17
03/29/2013 09:42 AM

This is all really good information...keep up the good work!

marksmoneymakers Posts:19675 Followers:140
03/29/2013 09:42 AM

TONY KARPINSKI

Today’s FREE WINNER is the Gators over the Eagles. Both teams that distribute the ball very well, behind their guards, Brent Comer for FGCU, and Scottie Wilbekin for Florida, in particular. I expect a very good game especially near the beginning. We all know the high on the mountain trip the Eagles are on now, exuding confidence, as they should be, enjoying every moment of it, they warrant all of it. Georgetown and New Mexico St were very similiar teams with slow it down styles. Now they face an uptempo Florida team who is very deep and athletic.
Florida still has a lock down defense, which FGCU hasn’t seen yet and this rec team from FLorida Gulf Coast will be in for a big surprise. THE FLORIDA GATORS WIN 81-61

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