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Iowa State vs. Notre Dame, 03/22/2013 21:45
Point Spread: +1½/-106 Iowa State
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Iowa State +1.5
The Key: If you want to beat the Cyclones, you better find a way to get them to turn it over. With Korie Lucious handling the rock, the Cyclones average only 13 turnovers per game. That's an outstanding figure considering the up-tempo pace they play. 6 of Iowa State's 11 losses came in games where it had 14 turnovers or more. However, I don't see Notre Dame getting the Cyclones to cough it up much. In fact, the Irish only average 10 takeaways per game. That won't get the job done here. Notre Dame is terrific on its home floor but has struggled outside South Bend. That's one of the reasons it is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 NCAA tournament games. The Irish have dropped 5 of their last 8 away from home. Iowa State also benefits from its "Hilton Magic" but it also showed me something on the road where it played just about everyone tough and took Kansas to OT. Since Fred Hoiberg returned to coach his alma mater, the Cyclones are 13-5 ATS in games when the line is +3 to -3. They are also 22-9 ATS when matched up against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). Lastly, the Irish are a soft 10-19 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pickem under Mike Brey. Take Iowa State.