marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 07:14 AM

RAS

731 Oregon +3

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 07:14 AM

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/21/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3841-1336 (.742)
ATS: 1857-1875 (.498)
ATS Vary Units: 5170-5481 (.485)
Over/Under: 591-545 (.520)
Over/Under Vary Units: 682-654 (.510)

NCAA Tournament
2nd Round at EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Gonzaga 74, Southern 47
Pittsburgh 62, Wichita State 59
New Mexico 67, Harvard 54
Arizona 74, Belmont 70

2nd Round at HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA
Oklahoma State 70, Oregon 68
Saint Louis 67, New Mexico State 57
Syracuse 70, Montana 58
California 64, Unlv 63

2nd Round at Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Louisville 75, North Carolina A&T 42
Missouri 74, Colorado State 70
Marquette 67, Davidson 66
Butler 63, Bucknell 56

2nd Round at The Palace of Auburn Hills, Auburn Hills, MI
Michigan State 68, Valparaiso 59
Memphis 72, Saint Mary's 71
Michigan 76, South Dakota State 66
Vcu 71, Akron 68

National Invitation Tournament
2nd Round at campus sites
MARYLAND 67, Denver 61

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 07:15 AM

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1001-745 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner Thurs: St Louis -9

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:55 AM

Basketball Crusher

Cincinnati +3 over Creighton

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:56 AM

Where the Action is: NCAA Bettors Like Mid-Majors
by Jason Logan

College basketball analysts believe this year could be the year when a mid-major program breaks out and wins the NCAA tournament. And, according to the early line moves for the Round of 64 matchups, bettors also have strong feelings for the little guys.

Of the 16 games kicking off the second round the NCAA tournament Thursday, seven have seen significant adjustments to their spreads. And of those seven lines moves, most have gone in favor of the mid-major programs.

“I think people are much more aware of the mid-majors and the talent that’s on those teams,” Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, told Covers. “Teams like Butler, and VCU, and Belmont have brought mid-majors to the forefront. People understand how good they are and they’re no longer overlooked.”

Rood says a lot of the tournament action – single game and futures – is spread around. This college basketball season saw a revolving-door No. 1 and daily upsets among the Top 25 teams. And that has bettors looking beyond the favorites this March.

Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Wichita State Shockers – Open: +5, Move: +4

The Shockers scored an at-large bid to the NCAA and took a lot of action from the public when lines went up Sunday night. However, sharp money is buying back Pitt – a funny change in the market compared to previous tournaments. The sharp money used to live with the mid-major teams but now more and more is searching for value with the big-name programs.

“The numbers aren’t shaded like they used to be, when you had some 41-point favorites out there,” says Rood. “Ten years ago, every book on the Strip would need the underdog and the 41 points. The betting public just won’t blindly jump on the favorites now.”

Davidson Wildcats vs. Marquette Golden Eagles – Open: -4, Move: -3

Davidson comes out of the Southern as a No. 14 seed, facing No. 3 Marquette. This line was one of the earliest adjustments when NCAA odds went live Sunday.

“You have a Big East representative taking on a small-conference school, the general public is going to be on Marquette,” says Rood. “But there is this cinnamon out there among the basketball gurus that Davidson has something in its holster."

Rood says he doesn’t want to move the line around too much, even with more money expected to come in on the favorite Thursday. A move to -4.5 would draw the sharps on the Wildcats and leave books exposed to a middle.

Southern Jaguars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs - Open: -23, Move: -21.5

MGM opened Gonzaga at -22 while other books had the Bulldogs set as high as 23-point favorites as the No. 1 seed in the West.

While the public tends to side with the top seed versus the No. 16 seeds in the Round of 64, bettors haven’t held back their opinion of Gonzaga, which has been bet down to -21.5.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oregon Ducks – Open: +2.5, Move: +4, Move: +3

Many thought the Ducks got screwed over by the selection committee when dealt a No. 12 seed, despite winning the Pac-12 tournament title. Others believed Oregon was in over its head versus a very good OSU squad in the opening game. Those two factions have moved this line up and down since Sunday.

“We are drawing more money on the dog in that game. About 3-to-2 in terms of action on Oregon,” says Rood. “A lot of people think they were seeded incorrectly.”

Belmont Bruins vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: -3.5, Move: -4.5

Arizona is on upset watch in its tournament opener, going up against a dangerous Belmont squad out of the Ohio Valley Conference. While spread bettors have pushed the Wildcats to -4.5 there is a lot of action coming in on the Bruins’ moneyline odds of +175.

VCU Rams vs. Akron Zips – Open: +7, Move: +8

VCU has built quite a following since its magical Final Four run two years ago. The Rams have been one of the most popular bets of the Round of 64, matching up against No. 12 Akron as a No. 5 seed.

“It’s been all straight bets and parlays – all Shaka,” laughs Rood, referring to VCU head coach Shaka Smart. “Name recognition is out there and they know that VCU can rise to the occasion.”

Montana Grizzlies vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: -12, Move: -14, Move: -12

This spread jumped up two points with sharp money coming in on Montana. However, Syracuse looked good at the end of the year – save for a second-half collapse in the Big East title game – and is garnering not only attention versus the Grizzlies but also in the NCAA futures market.

“They were playing very well in the tournament, up until that point (Big East Championship) and they could be a very tough opponent throughout the tournament,” Rood says of the Orange.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:56 AM

Midwest Regional: Day 1 NCAAB Betting Preview

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (+10.5, 126)

Playing in the Big Ten conference, Michigan State didn't have to look far to find stiff competition. When the Spartans make their 16th consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, they won't have to travel too far to find their next opponent, either. Third-seeded Michigan State will make the trek to The Palace of Auburn Hills, where they'll face 14th-seeded Valparaiso on Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region.

The Spartans recorded 25 wins and advanced to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament before being bounced by eventual champion Ohio State on Saturday. With the conference sending seven representatives to the Big Dance, one can easily see why coach Tom Izzo believes his team is battle-tested. "I'd play the (Los Angeles) Lakers tomorrow instead of some of the teams I've played recently," Izzo said moments after Michigan State dropped a 61-58 decision to the Buckeyes.

TRENDS:

* Crusaders are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
* Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 9-2 in Spartans last 11 vs. Horizon League.

No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (+9, 122)

Saint Louis will have its hands full with red-hot New Mexico State freshman Sim Bhullar when the teams meet Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region at San Jose, Calif. The fourth-seeded Billikens learned their fate at a Best Buy store in Secaucus, N.J., mere hours after winning their first Atlantic 10 tournament title in Brooklyn. Saint Louis is 24-3 since coach Rick Majerus passed away in December. The veteran Billikens used a balanced offense and disciplined defense to run through the A-10 and earn the program's highest NCAA Tournament seed. Junior forward Dwayne Evans gives Saint Louis its own strong presence under the basket.

New Mexico State is the No. 13 seed after winning the Western Athletic Conference tournament for the second straight year. The Aggies have won 18 of their past 20 games and have four players averaging in double figures. New Mexico State has been without senior forward Tyrone Watson, who missed four games with an injured ankle after returning from a 30-day suspension stemming from an arrest. Thursday's winner faces either No. 5 Oklahoma State or No. 12 Oregon.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games.
* Billikens are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Under is 18-7-2 in Aggies' last 27 neutral site games.

No. 6 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 11 St. Mary's Gaels (+1, 135)

Memphis has lost only once in the last 25 games, but the talented Tigers are somewhat unproven with a 1-3 record against NCAA Tournament teams. Sixth-seeded Memphis gets a chance to start showing it belongs as a contender when it plays Saint Mary’s in the second round of the Midwest Regional on Thursday at Auburn Hills, Mich. The Tigers’ losses to NCAA entrants Virginia Commonwealth, Louisville and Minnesota were all before Dec. 16 and Memphis went unbeaten in Conference USA after that. Memphis is balanced offensively and averages almost 76 points.

Saint Mary’s handled Middle Tennessee 67-54 in Tuesday's first round, getting 22 points and four assists from senior Matthew Dellavedova. The Australian guard is the program’s all-time leader in scoring and assists, opening up the floor for a team that has made 270 shots from behind the 3-point line.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Gaels last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 10-2 in Tigers last 12 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 12 Oregon Ducks (+3, 134)

Oregon won the Pac-12 tournament over the weekend but that effort only earned the Ducks a No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, where they’ll take on fifth-seeded Oklahoma State on Thursday in San Jose, Calif. Oregon hasn’t played in the NCAA Tournament since 2008, when it lost its opener to Mississippi State. The Cowboys are returning to the tournament for the first time since 2010, when they lost their opener to Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State is looking for its first win since beating Tennessee in the opening round of the 2009 tournament.

The Cowboys last played a Pac-12 team at the 2011 NIT Preseason Tournament in Madison Square Garden, losing to Stanford 82-67. Both teams faced Portland State two weeks apart in November. Oregon beat the Vikings 80-69 on Nov. 12 and the Cowboys knocked them off 81-58 on Nov. 25. The winner of this game will play either 13th-seeded New Mexico State or No. 4 Saint Louis in Saturday’s second round.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 16 North Carolina A&T Aggies (+26, 123)

Louisville comes into the NCAA Tournament as the consensus favorite after winning 10 straight games by an average of 15.6 points. The Cardinals begin their quest for a third national title against Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champion North Carolina A&T in the second round of the Midwest Regional on Thursday at Lexington, Ky. Louisville reached the Final Four last season and came back with a deep, balanced group to win the Big East. The Cardinals lean of their defense, which has allowed an average of 58 points and 10.7 steals.

North Carolina A&T defeated Liberty 73-72 in Tuesday's first round for its first win in 10 NCAA games. The Aggies also rely on their defense, which has limited opponents to 38.3 percent shooting. North Carolina A&T has played two other Big East opponents, losing to Cincinnati by 54 and Seton Hall by 11.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-1 in Cardinals' last eight NCAA Tournament games.

No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Missouri Tigers (-3, 143)

Two of the nation's top rebounding teams square off on Thursday when eighth-seeded Colorado State takes on ninth-seeded Missouri in the Midwest Region in Lexington, Ky. Overall No. 1 seed Louisville - and a rabid partisan crowd - likely awaits the winner. The Rams and Tigers are both strong in the post, as Missouri ranks second in the nation in rebounding (41.4) and Colorado State is fourth (40.4).

It's the second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament for the Rams, who have won a school-record 25 games. Missouri is in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year, tying a school record. The Tigers also made five straight appearances from 1986-90 and 1999-2003. The teams are meeting for only the third time - and the first since 1969. They have split the first two contests.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Southeastern.
* Over is 25-10 in Tigers' last 35 overall.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:56 AM

Midwest Regional: Day 1 NCAAB Betting Preview

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (+10.5, 126)

Playing in the Big Ten conference, Michigan State didn't have to look far to find stiff competition. When the Spartans make their 16th consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, they won't have to travel too far to find their next opponent, either. Third-seeded Michigan State will make the trek to The Palace of Auburn Hills, where they'll face 14th-seeded Valparaiso on Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region.

The Spartans recorded 25 wins and advanced to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament before being bounced by eventual champion Ohio State on Saturday. With the conference sending seven representatives to the Big Dance, one can easily see why coach Tom Izzo believes his team is battle-tested. "I'd play the (Los Angeles) Lakers tomorrow instead of some of the teams I've played recently," Izzo said moments after Michigan State dropped a 61-58 decision to the Buckeyes.

TRENDS:

* Crusaders are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
* Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 9-2 in Spartans last 11 vs. Horizon League.

No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (+9, 122)

Saint Louis will have its hands full with red-hot New Mexico State freshman Sim Bhullar when the teams meet Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region at San Jose, Calif. The fourth-seeded Billikens learned their fate at a Best Buy store in Secaucus, N.J., mere hours after winning their first Atlantic 10 tournament title in Brooklyn. Saint Louis is 24-3 since coach Rick Majerus passed away in December. The veteran Billikens used a balanced offense and disciplined defense to run through the A-10 and earn the program's highest NCAA Tournament seed. Junior forward Dwayne Evans gives Saint Louis its own strong presence under the basket.

New Mexico State is the No. 13 seed after winning the Western Athletic Conference tournament for the second straight year. The Aggies have won 18 of their past 20 games and have four players averaging in double figures. New Mexico State has been without senior forward Tyrone Watson, who missed four games with an injured ankle after returning from a 30-day suspension stemming from an arrest. Thursday's winner faces either No. 5 Oklahoma State or No. 12 Oregon.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games.
* Billikens are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Under is 18-7-2 in Aggies' last 27 neutral site games.

No. 6 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 11 St. Mary's Gaels (+1, 135)

Memphis has lost only once in the last 25 games, but the talented Tigers are somewhat unproven with a 1-3 record against NCAA Tournament teams. Sixth-seeded Memphis gets a chance to start showing it belongs as a contender when it plays Saint Mary’s in the second round of the Midwest Regional on Thursday at Auburn Hills, Mich. The Tigers’ losses to NCAA entrants Virginia Commonwealth, Louisville and Minnesota were all before Dec. 16 and Memphis went unbeaten in Conference USA after that. Memphis is balanced offensively and averages almost 76 points.

Saint Mary’s handled Middle Tennessee 67-54 in Tuesday's first round, getting 22 points and four assists from senior Matthew Dellavedova. The Australian guard is the program’s all-time leader in scoring and assists, opening up the floor for a team that has made 270 shots from behind the 3-point line.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Gaels last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 10-2 in Tigers last 12 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 12 Oregon Ducks (+3, 134)

Oregon won the Pac-12 tournament over the weekend but that effort only earned the Ducks a No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, where they’ll take on fifth-seeded Oklahoma State on Thursday in San Jose, Calif. Oregon hasn’t played in the NCAA Tournament since 2008, when it lost its opener to Mississippi State. The Cowboys are returning to the tournament for the first time since 2010, when they lost their opener to Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State is looking for its first win since beating Tennessee in the opening round of the 2009 tournament.

The Cowboys last played a Pac-12 team at the 2011 NIT Preseason Tournament in Madison Square Garden, losing to Stanford 82-67. Both teams faced Portland State two weeks apart in November. Oregon beat the Vikings 80-69 on Nov. 12 and the Cowboys knocked them off 81-58 on Nov. 25. The winner of this game will play either 13th-seeded New Mexico State or No. 4 Saint Louis in Saturday’s second round.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 16 North Carolina A&T Aggies (+26, 123)

Louisville comes into the NCAA Tournament as the consensus favorite after winning 10 straight games by an average of 15.6 points. The Cardinals begin their quest for a third national title against Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champion North Carolina A&T in the second round of the Midwest Regional on Thursday at Lexington, Ky. Louisville reached the Final Four last season and came back with a deep, balanced group to win the Big East. The Cardinals lean of their defense, which has allowed an average of 58 points and 10.7 steals.

North Carolina A&T defeated Liberty 73-72 in Tuesday's first round for its first win in 10 NCAA games. The Aggies also rely on their defense, which has limited opponents to 38.3 percent shooting. North Carolina A&T has played two other Big East opponents, losing to Cincinnati by 54 and Seton Hall by 11.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-1 in Cardinals' last eight NCAA Tournament games.

No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Missouri Tigers (-3, 143)

Two of the nation's top rebounding teams square off on Thursday when eighth-seeded Colorado State takes on ninth-seeded Missouri in the Midwest Region in Lexington, Ky. Overall No. 1 seed Louisville - and a rabid partisan crowd - likely awaits the winner. The Rams and Tigers are both strong in the post, as Missouri ranks second in the nation in rebounding (41.4) and Colorado State is fourth (40.4).

It's the second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament for the Rams, who have won a school-record 25 games. Missouri is in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year, tying a school record. The Tigers also made five straight appearances from 1986-90 and 1999-2003. The teams are meeting for only the third time - and the first since 1969. They have split the first two contests.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Southeastern.
* Over is 25-10 in Tigers' last 35 overall.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:57 AM

68 Stats for 68 NCAA Tournament - Bound Teams

It's tourney time, so here's a few betting stats and notes for all 68 teams vying for the national title:

MIDWEST REGION

(1) Louisville - Ranks 224th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (33.1%)

(2) Duke - Went 18-0 in the regular season with forward Ryan Kelly in the lineup (11-7 ATS) but 9-3 SU and 6-7 ATS without him.

(3) Michigan State - The Spartans play strong, balanced team defense, finishing 35th or better in four key defensive statistical categories - points allowed per game, opponent field goal percentage, opponent 3-point percentage and opponent free throw percentage.

(4) Saint Louis - In seven NCAA tournament appearances, the Billikens have never advanced past their second game.

(5) Oklahoma State - The Cowboys lost in the opening round of their last tournament appearance in 2010.

(6) Memphis - The Tigers are very efficient from the floor, shooting 37.9% from 3-point range and 47.9 from the field. But their 66.7 percent mark from the free-throw line ranks 260th in the country.

(7) Creighton - The Bluejays lead the nation in field goal percentage (.508) and rank fourth in assists per game (17.2).

(8) Colorado State - Have only covered once in their last seven games.

(9) Missouri - The Tigers are the second-best rebounding team in the country at 41.4 per game.

(10) Cincinnati - The Bearcats rank 26th or better in opponent points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage.

(11) TBD from play-in game.

(12) Oregon - The Ducks will make their first tournament appearance since 2008, when they were eliminated in the first round as a No. 9 seed.

(13) New Mexico State - Enters the tourney on a five-game winning streak and has now won six straight WAC tournament games by at least nine points, and by an overall average margin of 14.3 points per win.

(14) Valparaiso - The Crusaders are making their first NCAA appearance since 2004. They head into the tourney on a six-game winning streak after breaking the school's single-season record for victories.

(15) Albany - This will be the third tournament appearance for the Great Danes. They also made it to the Big Dance in 2006 and 2007.

(16) TBD from play-in game

SOUTH REGION

(1) Kansas - Kansas has the best field-goal percentage defense in the country -- and much of it comes from its shot-blocking prowess on the interior. The Jayhawks allow teams to shoot only 38.9 percent inside the arc, and only 35.9 percent overall -- both rank first in the country.

(2) Georgetown - The Hoyas rank 297th in experience, making them one of the youngest teams in the field.

(3) Florida - The Gators were once seen as a lock for a No. 1 seed. After going 5-4 on the road during the SEC regular season and losing in the tournament title game, the Gators fell to a No. 3 seed

(4) Michigan - Posted a 19-12 over/under mark during the regular season - the most overs in the Big Ten.

(5) VCU - The Rams lead the country in turnovers forced per game (19.9) and steals per game (11.9).

(6) UCLA - Second leading scorer Jordan Adams (15.3 ppg) is out for the rest of the season. He suffered a broken foot Friday night against Arizona.

(7) San Diego State - The Aztecs have only covered once in their last six games.

(8) UNC - The Tar Heels have advanced to at least the regional final in six of their last seven NCAA tournament appearances, including two national championships in 2009 and 2005.

(9) Villanova - The Wildcats were a Big East-best 19-10-1 ATS this season.

(10) Oklahoma - The Sooners have played over the total in 10 of their last 11 games.

(11) Minnesota - The Gophers have some quality wins over Memphis, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Indiana this season.

(12) Akron - The Zips overcame the loss of G Alex Abreu to win the MAC tournament, but their 64.5 percent free throw shooting percentage is a major cause for concern.

(13) South Dakota State - The Jackrabbits' sole NCAA appearance came last year, when they earned a trip to the dance but fell in the opener 68-60 to Baylor.

(14) Northwestern State - The Demons score 81 points per game and average 72.9 possession - both are tops in college basketball

(15) Florida Gulf Coast - The Eagles won the Atlantic Sun's automatic bid with an 88-75 victory over top-seeded Mercer on its floor on March 9. It's the first time for FGCU in the tournament in just its second year of eligibility.

(16) Western Kentucky - Went 0-3-1 O/U in the Sun Belt tourney.

WEST REGION

(1) Gonzaga - Has lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament three years in a row.

(2) Ohio State - The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight.

(3) New Mexico - The Lobos' January 9th win over UNLV is their only victory against a team in the RPI Top 20.

(4) Kansas State - The Wildcats are 9-2 in games when senior guard Rodney McGruder scores 20+ points.

(5) Wisconsin - The Badgers hold opponents to a 10th-best 55.9 points per game.

(6) Arizona - The last time Arizona posted seven losses in the regular season (2010-11) it advanced to the Elite Eight.

(7) Notre Dame - The Irish have gone over the total in four straight heading into the NCAA Tournament.

(8) Pittsburgh - This will be Pitt's first NCAA appearance since 2011, when they were eliminated by Butler in the round of 32 as a No. 1 seed.

(9) Wichita State - The Shockers were eliminated in the first round in last season's tournament by VCU. They were an at-large entry and a No. 5 seed.

(10) Iowa State - The Cyclones rank fourth in the nation in points per game (79.6).

(11) Belmont - This is the third year in a row that Belmont earned an automatic tournament bid as Atlantic Sun tournament winner. They were eliminated in the first round the previous two seasons.

(12) Ole Miss - Last made an appearance in the 2002 NCAA tournament and lost in the first round.

(13) TBD from play-in game

(14) Harvard - The Crimson are a good rebounding team that shoots well from beyond the arc. Harvard ranks seventh in the nation in 3-point percentage (40.1) and 28th in rebounding (27.2).

(15) Iona - The Gaels won the MAAC tournament last winter and were eliminated in the first round of the 2012 NCAA tournament by Brigham Young.

EAST REGION

(1) Indiana - All five of Indiana's losses this season have come against teams in the RPI Top 50.

(2) Miami - The Hurricanes broke the program’s record for wins in a season, set by the 2001-02 team. Miami easily covered in all three of its ACC tournament games.

(3) Marquette - The Golden Eagles have failed to cover in their last three games.

(4) Syracuse - The last time Syracuse lost in the Big East Conference final (2009) it advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing to No. 2 Oklahoma.

(5) UNLV - The Runnin' Rebels have been ousted in the opening round of the NCAA tournament three years in a row.

(6) Butler - Has been a perennial bracket buster in past tournaments and brings a balanced attack with four players averaging 10 points or more per game.

(7) Illinois - The Illini have the third most Top-25 RPI wins in the country with six.

(8) N.C. State - The Wolfpack shot 49.5 percent from the field – fourth best in the nation – but only 45.3 percent in their nine losses.

(9) Temple - The Owls tangled with some big-name programs in non-conference play, taking on Villanova, Duke, Syracuse and Kansas. Temple was 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games.

(10) Colorado - Junior forward Andre Roberson is second in the nation with 11.3 rebounds per game. The Buffaloes were a great under play this season, posting a 7-16 O/U mark.

(11) Bucknell - The Bison failed to cover as big favorites in all three Patriot League playoff games.

(12) Cal - Junior guard Allen Crabbe led the Pac-12 in scoring with 18.7 points per game, but the Golden Bears were a great under play (9-16 O/U) this season.

(13) Montana - The Grizzlies were covering machines on the road this season (10-4-1 ATS).

(14) Davidson - This team is the best in the nation from the charity stripe (80.1 percent).

(15) Pacific - This is Pacific's eighth appearance in the NCAA tournament, and its first since 2006. In the Tigers' last tourney appearance, they lost to Boston College in the first round.

(16) TBD from play-in game

Play -In Teams

North Carolina A&T - The Aggies have an aggressive offense that gets to the foul line on a quarter of their possessions.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:58 AM

NCAA Tournament Tidbits
Steve Merril

The 2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament is finally here.
Below are some quick facts and thoughts to consider when filling out your office bracket.

#1 Success:

Overall #1 seed has won 5 of last 6 NCAA national championships.

In 2011 when #3 seed Connecticut won the title, it was the first time in history that no #1 or #2 seed made the Final Four.

Teams seeded #1 thru #3 have won 30 of the past 34 NCAA Championships:

#1 seed (19 times 56%)
#2 seed (6 times 18%)
#3 seed (5 times 15%)
#4 or worse (4 times 12%)

First Rounds Dominance:

#1 seeds are 88-0 (100%) SU versus #16 seeds.

#2 seeds are 82-6 (93%) SU versus #15 seeds, however two #15 seeds won last year.

#3 seeds are 78-10 (89%) SU versus #14 seeds

#4 seeds are 69-19 (78%) SU versus #13 seeds

Biggest pointspread upset in NCAA Tournament history occurred last year when #15 Norfolk State (+21.5) defeated #2 Missouri, 86-84.

Odds & Ends:

Georgetown has lost 4 straight times in the first round to a double-digit seeded opponent in the NCAA Tournament. The Hoyas have lost to #10, #14, #11, and #10 seeds (2008-2012).

Oregon is a #12 seed, while UCLA is a #6 seed, despite Ducks being -1.5 favorite and winning the MWC tournament versus the Bruins on a neutral court? A strange seeding which shows how the oddsmakers and the selection committee often have different opinions.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:15066 Followers:141
03/21/2013 10:59 AM

DAVE ESSLER

Bracket Cliff Notes - Bracketology

Here'a few matchups.

Midwest:

Colorado State-Missouri: CSU is still at seasons' end one of the most under valued teams, finishing second in the MWC, which is actually rated the third toughest Conference. Eustachy has done the same thing, which was turn them into a sick rebounding team at both ends of the floor. They're considerably undersized, but with their experience can probably beat anyone. They lost back in December to (at) Illinois Chicago, and that was in fact their only bad loss. Losing in the second round to UNLV gives them that extra day, which is key. They just don't ever beat themselves, which is the type of team we typically want our money on. Missouri is a team this is/was just 2-8 away from home, and that's always tough to get behind, but, they were 4-2 on Neutral courts against some excellent competition. However, they have fared much better against teams that will run with them, and CSU will not.

Oklahoma State-Oregon: They certainly made the Ducks road tougher. Don't get that one. The battle between the Freshman here, Artis and Marcus Smart. He who makes the least mistakes wins. Cowboys stock is certainly down after struggling to beat Baylor and losing pretty soundly to K-State, who then was thumped by Kansas. Oregon wins the Pac-12 Tournament and really only struggled all year when Artis was out. Perhaps those late season losses at Colorado and Utah hurt them more than they should have.

St. Louis-New Mexico State: If NMSU doesn't turn the ball over too much and can shoot even reasonably well (65% as a team) from the line, they are and will be a tough out. Last year St. Louis was a 9 seed and knocked off Memphis in the first round, before almost beating Michigan State in the second round. NMSU is the biggest team in the nation, FWIW.

Michigan State-Valpo: Valpo lost in the first round of the NIT last year at Miami, but the are the most experienced team in the nation. I know, how can we possibly fade the Spartans and Izzo this time of year. Easily, that's why there's a point spread. Valpo ain't skurred, here.

Cincinnati-Creighton: Obviously very unimpressed with the Bearcats and their inability to score and/or shoot free throws. And was equally unimpressed by Creighton's performance in the Bracketbuster game against St. Mary's. Still think I'd be hard pressed to take Cincinnati here, not without at least finding ONE good reason. Creighton's is exactly the type of offense that will give them trouble, and not one they see in the Big East.

West:

Wisconsin at Mississippi: We know what the Badgers so, and that's play slow, shoot three's, and play great defense. They'll try to slow down Mississippi, and it is easier to slow a game down rather than speed it up. What does always worry me about the Badgers is that they don't get to the line, and for a great outside shooting team, they simply don't shoot FT's well.

Arizona-Belmont: Wildcats certainly still have eyes on winning the whole thing, and Lord knows that they have the talent. They beat Florida and beat Miami (badly on a neutral court). What's really interesting is that most all the teams they either struggled with or lost to were big teams. UCLA, Oregon, and SoCal, to name most of them, and they do have three Freshman that see significant minutes. So, if they should beat Belmont and these brackets are at all correct, they'd better hope the don't play New Mexico State. They'd fare better against Marquette. And then there was Belmont, the team from the OVC that really doesn't do much wrong, and relies heavily on three's. Even though they hadn't played a good team since playing Kansas back in December, they won their Bracketbuster game over Ohio by about 20 points. They're full of Seniors who lost in the first round both of the last two years, to G-Town and Wisconsin. Those are teams that can play a ton of defense, and I wonder if Arizona can. This is not a goof matchup for AZ, who simply doesn't defend the perimeter well at all, or was near the bottom in doing so in the Pac-12. This could easily be your annual #6 beats #11.

New Mexico-Harvard: New Mexico is no longer under the radar to anyone not following the MWC after winning the title in Las Vegas, over UNLV. Harvard is disciplined, and coach by Tommy Ammaker of Duke fame, but their defense is a bit suspect.

Notre Dame-Iowa State: Both had decent post season runs, and this is a classic matchup of the big and slow Irish versus the smaller and quicker, deadly shooting, Iowa State team. My intention is to fade most of the Big East teams, really. The only issue with betting on ISU is that they've got one, and only one, way to win. Shooting three's. But, like Cincinnati, the Irish don't see much of what ISU will show them.

South:

Kansas-Western Kentucky: The Sun Belt Conference is pretty bad, but WKU did start the season by almost beating Southern Miss, and played the likes of VCU, Louisville, Murray State, and Iowa, so this isn't going to be totally foreign to them. Being foreign and winning are not the same thing, but we want the cover or not. The Hilltoppers won four games in the Sun Belt Tournament by a total of 13 points. Obviously Kansas can name the score here if they want to, and I suspect they will if for no other reason than that embarrassing loss a few weeks ago.

North Carolina-Villanova: Tar Heels had a much better March than probably anyone thought, and Villanova won just the right games to get in. 'Nova will probably run with UNC here, but it's been my experience that teams that run with the Heels have fared worse than those that have not. They feasted on the Clemson's of the ACC but had much more trouble with the up tempo games, probably because of their youth. Villanova is a team I do like to back because they can play defense, and get to the line a ton. Wright is one of the more under rated coaches, IMO. I will really wonder what playing on Sunday and losing a tough game to Miami will do to UNC. Their young, and will have a little less rest.

llinois: Illinois is sliding, and perhaps back to the mean. Were it not for their win over Gonzaga, they may not be in. They beat Ohio State and Indiana at home, but all season have piled up wins against the bottom of the Conference and basically a terrible non-conference schedule. They've got length and experience, but not sure they've really come together under Groce, who's employed a whole new system with Weber's players. CSU is still at seasons' end one of the most under valued teams, finishing second in the MWC, which is actually rated the third toughest Conference. Eustachy has done the same thing, which was turn them into a sick rebounding team at both ends of the floor. They're considerably undersized, but with their experience can probably beat anyone. They lost back in December to (at) Illinois Chicago, and that was in fact their only bad loss. Losing in the second round to UNLV gives them that extra day, which is key. They just don't ever beat themselves, which is the type of team we typically want our money on.

VCU-Akron: Akron does have the size to compete, and I suppose it remains to be seen if Abreu plays or not. That certainly would effect the line, but it certainly didn't effect them against Ohio. VCU falls short to St. Louis in a game they were clearly over matched in, which had to be disappointing.

Michigan-South Dakota State: On paper the Summit League isn't that good, but this team played the likes of Alabama (almost won), New Mexico (won) and Belmont, so playing Michigan is no big deal to them. There's a part of me that wonder is the three Wolverines that are leaving for the NBA are really focused on this Tournament.

UCLA-Minnesota: Again, I wonder how fragile the Bruins are after all the pre-season attention and the disappointing loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament. By the same token, I hate backing Minnesota because they just turn it over too much. But, if the Bruins aren't careful, Minnesota is the number one offensive rebounding team in the nation.

Florida-Northwestern State: I would think that I would initially feel badly for Northwestern State, because one would think Florida would take out the Tournament loss on them. But, Donovan is smarter than that, and knows they need to win six games, and beating everyone by 25 just isn't going to happen.

San Diego State-Oklahoma: This one to me is ALL about motivation. Oklahoma is a young team that seemed to falter a bit down the stretch, while San Diego State just had a disappointing season, period. After the Sooners beat Kansas it's almost as if they thought they had won the World Series, because after that they really beat nobody, lost to TCU, and got bounced in the first round by Iowa State.

East:

NC State-Temple: I think instinctively people may be still down on the Wolfpack, but they've got NBA talent. On the other hand, they've got Gottfried. NC State finished strong and COULD have beaten Miami, so they're on an uptick here. Temple has light years' more experience and will run with NC State, but they certainly don't have the athletes. Having said that, they won their last eight or so A-10 games and beat VCU, then lost early to UMass, so perhaps a little more rest. Not enamored with their defense, but they did play both Kansas tough on the road

Georgetown-Florida GC: What you might think would happen here might and might not. The big advantage for G-Town was losing early and getting the extra rest. FGC played VCU, Duke, St. Johns, and Iowa State in the non-conference part of their schedule. This is no big deal to them. They'll play, or try to, very up tempo and don't make a ton of mistakes. They have an turnover issues, which obviously against G-Town is an issue, but where are the Hoyas heads at and is a young teams' confidence at all shattered after losing Syracuse in the fashion they did, and is Porter playing this tournament or thinking about the NBA.

Marquette-Davidosn: I've been saying for weeks how over rated Marquette really is. They didn't play a great schedule (even in the Big East) and this is a team that lost to Florida by 33 points. They are not big, they are not fast, and they do not take many outside shots. When they're "on" they're really ON, but the reverse is true also. Davidson is still one of those teams capable of beating anyone, and no stranger to playing "marquee" teams. They play a style of play that will allow them to shoot over Marquette's defense, and them winning would not surprise me.

UNLV-Cal: This ones' interesting to me personally because I've maintained both teams were physically and/or mentally soft all season. Rebels cannot be feeling good about themselves losing the MWC Championship on their own floor. Cal has to be questioning themselves after a nice winning streak then losing the season finale at home to Stanford and the booted in round one by Utah.

Syracuse-Montana: I will never bet on Syracuse again. Montana isn't afraid of anyone.

Butler-Bucknell: I will never bet against Bucknell, and not because my daughter goes to school there. She graduates this Spring and is off to Austria, and Mike Muscala is off to the NBA. He is light years better than anyone Andrew Smith has had to guard, and it would simply not surprise me at all if the Bison won this game.

Illinios-Colorado: Illinois is sliding, and perhaps back to the mean. Were it not for their win over Gonzaga, they may not be in. They beat Ohio State and Indiana at home, but all season have piled up wins against the bottom of the Conference and basically a terrible non-conference schedule. They've got length and experience, but not sure they've really come together under Groce, who's employed a whole new system with Weber's players. Colorado hasn't really has a bad loss all year, and simply don't beat themselves. They get to the line a lot, but are young and don't have the size. However, Illinois has peaked, IMO.

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