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thatman-z
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WrightSt vs Valparaiso...Only -7.5??

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On 03/12/2013 10:38 AM in NCAA Basketball
Wright St vs Valparaiso -7.5

The line to me looks very low to start off. Yesterday when Eastern Michigan's line looked low, I jumped on it.....And then I lost. I know every game is different. But this looks like a no brainer to me. Please someone convenience me not to take Valparaiso -7.5 ...I got them winning by AT LEAST 9 points.
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Pfile Nickname thatman-z
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03/12/2013 11:12 AM
Does no one discuss sports here?? Or is it a little too early for us degenerates??
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Pfile Nickname finance
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03/12/2013 11:25 AM
LOL - may be a bit early, although we certainly don't get as much chatter as I would like....most folks seem to post their picks and disappear....

FWIW I run models with 10 formulas for CBB sides and for that game of the 5 that have an opinion, 4 are on Wright State with the range being Wright State winning by 2 to losing by 5.5...the one formula on Valpo has them winning by 13....

I never like to talk anyone out of a bet because even with everything we are still looking at maybe slightly better than a 50/50 shot anyway....but based on the formulas there's a good chance that Wright State will be a play for me....I like to see how the line moves in the afternoon before locking in.....
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Pfile Nickname thatman-z
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03/12/2013 12:24 PM
I have one formula and so far its been GREAT! However, since the start of the Tourny its been off. So.....I have to make adjustments.


With that said, 54% of Public is on Wright St. and the line has moved from -8.5 (open) to -7.5 to -8 to -8.5 (current).

I don't factor in any line movements or anything. Thats just some information I was throwing out for anyone interested who follow line movement and what not.

I'm trusting my formulas with my minor adjustments. I'm taking Valparaiso -8.5
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Pfile Nickname thatman-z
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03/12/2013 12:33 PM
I like forums that have people actually discuss sports and plays. 1, Its always good to learn something new. 2, We are all into sports, hence why we gamble on them. 3, We r all on the same team vs "Vegas" (or whoever) we are trying to win money from. and 4, We dont know everything, there could be something u know that I dont and vise versa.
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Pfile Nickname finance
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03/12/2013 02:39 PM
Thanks for the info - to me if 54% is on Wright State and the line goes the other way that normally makes it a no-play for me....if the public was on Valpo and the line moved up then I would be happy to take the extra half point or point and play Wright State -

Good Luck with your plays today.....please keep the chatter going - maybe some of the others will join in....
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Pfile Nickname jdubb3384
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03/12/2013 06:10 PM
there is only 5 points difference between these 2 teams.if this game was in valpo i would take valpo and if this game was in wright st the line would prolly be anywhere from wright st favored by 1 to valpo favored by no more then 3..gl on valpo tonight
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Pfile Nickname thatman-z
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03/12/2013 07:01 PM
I got them winning by 9, but I've been wrong before. We shall see tonight. Good Luck!
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Pfile Nickname thatman-z
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03/12/2013 11:13 PM
DAMN ALL OF U for making me wait and get Valpo at -8.5 instead of -7.5/-8!! Hahaha just kidding but seriously what a shitty ending. Ya Ive seen worse, but this one still stings...
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