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Study Group: Wednesday's Top 25 NCAAB Betting Notes
DePaul Blue Demons at Syracuse Orange (-22, 148)
Syracuse will try to stop its slide down the Big East standings and snap a three-game skid when the 16th-ranked Orange host DePaul on Wednesday night. Syracuse has slipped into a tie for fifth in the conference with three straight losses to ranked opponents, but it has a prime opportunity to get on track with a visit from struggling DePaul.
The Blue Demons have lost four straight and 13 of 14 after an 83-73 loss at South Florida on Sunday. DePaul has lost 42 consecutive games against ranked opponents since knocking off No. 16 Villanova on Jan. 3, 2008. Syracuse has won the past six meetings dating to 2006. The Orange have lost two straight at the Carrier Dome after a 38-game home winning streak.
Michigan Wolverines at Purdue Boilermakers (+6, 134)
Michigan’s Trey Burke has been a model of consistency. The sophomore guard has scored at least 15 points in all 16 Big Ten games as the eighth-ranked Wolverines prepare to play at Purdue on Wednesday. Burke came through with 21 points and had two clutch steals late as Michigan beat rival Michigan State 58-57 on Sunday, rebounding from a damaging loss at Penn State. The Wolverines need help to catch Indiana for a share of the league title, but would like to break out of a four-way tie for second in the conference.
Purdue helped Michigan by winning at second-place Wisconsin 69-56 on Sunday and has won two of three as it attempts to find a way into postseason play. The Boilermakers, who led by a point at halftime on Jan. 24 in Michigan before losing 68-53, stand first in the Big Ten in rebounding and Michigan is eighth.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-2, 151)
Oklahoma State looks to win its fourth straight game when the No. 14 Cowboys visit Iowa State on Wednesday night. Oklahoma State, which is 5-4 on the road, is coming off a 78-65 victory at home against Texas on Saturday. The Cowboys are 63-53 in the series against Iowa State and have won the last two meetings, including a 78-76 victory Jan. 30 in Stillwater.
Iowa State is on a two-game losing streak. The Cyclones are coming off an 86-69 loss at Oklahoma on Saturday. Iowa State is 15-1 at home, its only loss a 108-96 overtime defeat to Kansas on Feb. 25.
Georgetown Hoyas at Villanova Wildcats (+1, 118)
On the doorstep of its longest winning streak in over a decade, No. 5 Georgetown can also clinch at least a share of its first regular-season Big East title since 2007-08 on Wednesday with a win at Villanova. The Hoyas, who have twice amassed 11-game winning streaks under coach John Thompson before this season, have a shot of enjoying their longest streak since the 2000-01 team opened up its season with 16 straight victories. Georgetown holds a half-game lead over second-place Louisville and can win the conference outright with two more victories.
Each of the Hoyas’ aforementioned winning streaks have come to an end on the road against Big East foes – a fate they hope to avoid against the Wildcats, who have already defeated two top-five teams this season. Villanova registered consecutive home wins against then-No. 5 Louisville and then-No. 4 Syracuse in late January, but is 5-5 since and has dropped two straight after Sunday’s 73-64 overtime loss at Pittsburgh.
Richmond Spiders at VCU Rams (-13, 136)
No. 19 Virginia Commonwealth doesn't control its own destiny for an Atlantic 10 regular-season championship, but a win over Richmond at home Wednesday would keep the Rams' chances alive. The last time these crosstown rivals met, Jan. 24, the Spiders snapped Virginia Commonwealth's 13-game win streak with an 86-74 overtime victory.
The Rams enter this edition of the Black & Blue Classic having won two of three in a crucial stretch against first-place No. 15 Saint Louis, Butler and Xavier. For Richmond, the win over VCU wasn't the turning point it had hoped. Since then, the Spiders have gone 4-5 with just one road win. But with wins in their last two games -- Richmond closes with last-place Duquesne on Saturday -- the Spiders can improve their conference tournament seed.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators (-21, 113)
Ninth-ranked Florida seeks consistency as it takes the floor for its final regular-season home game Wednesday against Vanderbilt. The Gators have dropped two of their past four games, but hold a two-game lead over Kentucky and Alabama and already have clinched a share of the SEC’s regular-season title. Florida needed a 15-0 run to overtake Alabama on Saturday, 64-52, as the Gators shot 2-for-13 from 3-point range.
Vanderbilt is tied with Texas A&M for 10th in the conference, but the Commodores have won three in a row and four of their past five. Vanderbilt beat Georgia and Auburn last week by a combined eight points.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-14, 120)
After losing at Duke on Saturday, Miami (Fla.) has a chance for a big celebration at home. The seventh-ranked Hurricanes can clinch their first outright ACC title with a victory over visiting Georgia Tech on Wednesday. Miami has dropped its last two on the road, but has yet to lose in 13 games at its BankUnited Center. Sophomore point guard Shane Larkin continues to enhance his candidacy for ACC player of the year, recording 25 and 22 points in the last two games for the Hurricanes.
Georgia Tech has shown progress, going 5-6 in the last 11 games since starting with five straight losses in ACC play. The Yellow Jackets struggle offensively, but have played pretty well on the other side of the court -- ranking fourth in the league in scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense.
Saint Louis Billikens at Xavier Musketeers (+3.5, 118)
No. 15 Saint Louis can claim at least a share of its first regular-season conference title in 42 seasons on Wednesday when it travels to Xavier. The Billikens, who have won 11 straight, are on their longest winning streak since a 14-game winning streak during the 1993-94 season. St. Louis owns a one-game lead over second-place Virginia Commonwealth and can also gain the top seed in the Atlantic-10 Conference tournament with a victory in one of its final two regular-season games.
In order for the Billikens to secure a share of its first regular-season title since finishing in a three-way tie for first in the Missouri Valley Conference during the 1970-71 season, Billikens interim coach Jim Crews will need to get a win over Musketeers coach Chris Mack, who he coached as a player at Evansville for two seasons. Xavier is 1-2 heading into the final game of its four-game homestand and coming off Saturday’s 77-72 loss against Massachusetts after ending Memphis’ 18-game winning streak on Feb. 26.
New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack (+7.5, 131)
No. 11 New Mexico can rest easy heading into the final week of Mountain West play after clinching its fourth conference title in five seasons as well as the No. 1 seed for next week's Mountain West tourney in Las Vegas. "This is a special group of young men to be in a league that's arguably the best in the country and to lead it wire to wire and win it speaks volumes," head coach Steve Alford told the Albuquerque Journal after the Lobos' title-clinching 53-42 victory over visiting Wyoming on Saturday. The Lobos, who are hoping to garner at least a No. 2 seed for the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish, have won five straight since a 64-55 loss at UNLV on Feb. 9.
It's a entirely different story for Nevada, which limps into the contest in ninth (last) place in its first year in the Mountain West and needs a sweep of the Lobos and at Colorado State on Saturday to have any chance of avoiding the dreaded 8 vs. 9 play-in game on Tuesday. The Wolf Pack have dropped a season-high five straight, including a 80-63 home loss to in-state rival UNLV on Saturday, and eight of their last nine. This despite returning three starters from a squad that went 13-1 and won the WAC a year ago.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State: Cowboys probably a #5 seed unless they can win the Big 12 title, which if Kansas and/or K-State have their eyes looking too far forward is not out of the question. But here they run into an ISU team that's only lost at home in OT to Kansas, and is technically in as a lower at-large seed, but could play themselves out of it with a loss here and at WVU (which is not out of the question) so there is considerably motivation for the home team. A win over Oklahoma State would be huge. Part of me wants them to roll so we can fade them at West Virginia. Anyway, the Cowboys won the earlier match up this season by two points in a game that was close all the way. ISU was by far the better offensive unit that night, and lost simply due to 18 turnovers, or more than twice as many as Oklahoma State had. That game, aside from the Kansas game, was the last close game the Cowboys had, which of course tells me they are good, but it ALSO might make me question whether or not they know how to win close games, especially on the road. Obviously Senior night for ISU, and they are loaded with them, as one of the most experienced teams in the nation, actually. With Oklahoma State being young, it's ISU or nothing. With both teams have rebounding issues at times, and given the pace this game will be played at, I cannot take the under. The number will be bet up fairly quickly, I would think.
North Carolina at Maryland: Almost without even looking (see first paragraph) I can tell you it's the Terps (gulp) or nothing here. With UNC having a friendly pick-up game at home against Duke on Saturday, I really question their focus. It's not that Williams isn't a great coach (I do think he's a bit over rated) it's that the Heels are just that young. Of course Maryland is too, but they are one of the few teams that are probably willing and able to run with UNC, and of course have the length to play with anyone, and of course they have the deeper bench. Just sayin'. UNC did beat the Terps by ten at home earlier, and in what I would think was a surprisingly low scoring game. I don't have time to look up that total, but I'd lay -1000 that it was significantly more than the 114 points they scored. If we did take the Terps, we'd be be backing the offense that's turned it over more than any other ACC team, playing the defense that's created the most, so maybe, just maybe, I could be convinced not to take the Terps here. One thing that also might make me NOT take the Terps is the fact that they suck worse from the line than UNC does. With that in mind, I do think that although they may score more than 114 points between them, it might well stay under whatever number they post, simply because of turnovers and lack of free throws. However, that's a number I'd wait on, because I would expect the initial number to go up. If it starts to go DOWN, I will most assuredly grab it. I think if I could get 145 I'd play the under right away.
G-Town at Villanova: Not only is this 'Nova's last home game, it's their last regular season game, period, and what a big game it is. Currently they sit as a "first four out" in most brackets, so this is clearly a must-win game for them. That loss at Seton Hall (which is one of the ones we got right last weekend, actually) really hurt them badly. The Hoyas have a game at home against Syracuse on Saturday, which is a real quick turnaround for them, having just beaten the Orange in the Carrier Dome. G-Town is playing for the regular season Big East crown and number one seed (which means very little in this particular tournament) but I really wonder if they aren't looking ahead, because OMFG do they have reason(s) to. And they're not the most experienced team around, either. Obviously the more talented ones, but this one to me falls squarely on which coach can have their team ready to play. If the Hoyas do have weaknesses, it's turning it over and/or offensive rebounding. (Things to remember when they tournament starts) The latter of those two might concern me here given that Villanova WILL run when given the chance. This is PROBABLY going to be a game of horse between Arcidiacono and Starks. What does concern me about G-Town is the fatigue level. Porter played all 40 minutes of the game against Syracuse, 49 of 50 in the double OT game at UConn, and all 40 against Rutgers. With that in mind, not only can I not take the Hoyas, but may well be looking to fade them early in the Big East Tournament, hope the get bounced and rest, and play ON them early in the bigger tournament. Just sayin'.
Michigan at Purdue: Michigan needs to win this game more than it may appear. They're actually on the verge of being out of the Top Four in the Conference, hence more games and no bye. Truly, the youth here may be wearing down. Remember that these Freshmen were playing about 15 less games and for two less months in High School last year. And it's not like Purdue isn't capable under the right set of circumstances. the Wisconsin win not withstanding, they did beat Iowa here, and even in losing at Ann Arbor earlier this season, Purdue was ahead of the Wolverines at halftime. Obviously they weren't taking Purdue too seriously, since it was a sandwich game around a couple of tough road games, but that's not to say that Purdue doesn't have the confidence here, especially after beating Wisconsin, to at the very least keep this game close. With a home game against Indiana on Sunday, I cannot imagine Michigan being "Michigan" here, especially after the emotional win over Michigan State. Purdue's done a good job of not turning the ball over, and with Michigan's slower tempo, I can see this being closer than most might expect. Purdue or nothing, but probably nothing.
St. Louis at Xavier: St. Louis trying to hold on to the #1 seed in the A-10 with a one game lead over VCU, and with the Rams playing at Temple to close out the season and St. Louis getting LaSalle at home, they ought to win regardless. Looking for motivation here from Xavier and the likely home dog, but it's tough to find beyond it ebing their last home game. Truth be told there's perhaps more motivation for St. Louis if they choose to use it, since it was Xavier who knocked them out of the A-10 Tournament last season. I'd like to get in front of the Billiken train, but we tried that last week against George Washington, and even though St. Louis was statistically outplayed in every area, they simply didn't make mistakes down the stretch and were able to both win and cover, the latter was simply not an option til very, very late. It's tough to fade teams that don't beat themselves, and once bitten and twice shy for me. Because Xavier has some length, best case I could make in this game would be the under. Right now, as Semaj Christon goes, so goes Xavier. The kids' really played well lately, and really cut down on his turnovers. But, he needs another year to NOT be compared to Tu Holloway and honestly, that was a big part of his undoing early in the season.
UConn at South Florida: Yes, I know how offensively challenged South Florida can be, but they may be a live home dog here, especially if Napier doesn't play. Giffey broke his finger and is likely done, and although he didn't get the press, he did play about 20 minutes a game. Without Napier AND Giffey, that's really going to shorten and already short bench. These two met in Storrs and USF actually hung around, so they have got to think they CAN win this. I do say first team to about 45 may well do it. The Bulls have at least got to be one SOME sort of high after winning a game (over DePaul) and they DID somehow beat Georgetown and this IS their last home game, so how much chance really is there of taking the Huskies, who've obviously now got nothing to play for and have lost two straight tough games. Perhaps the reality of the situation is starting to set in, and they wait to play Providence on Saturday. I did just notice that BetOnline hasn't put out a number yet, no doubt pending Napier's status. Regardless, I do think USF can win this game, or if Napier plays they can stay within what ought to be an inflated number in a low scoring game.
Revolving - Door Top Spot Could Mean More NCAA Upsets
by Jason Logan
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are the latest team to reign over the college basketball Top 25, becoming the fifth different program to be ranked No. 1 so far this season.
Gonzaga, which is ranked No. 1 for the first time in school history, joins Indiana, Duke, Louisville, and Michigan (Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches Poll in Week 13) among those that have shared top billing in the country.
The last time the top spot saw such a turnover was the 2003-04 season, when five different schools split time as the nation’s No. 1. That year’s NCAA tournament was ripe with early-round upsets and many are predicting a wide-open bracket this March.
Here’s a look at the four biggest Cinderella schools from the 2004 tournament and which teams could follow in their footsteps when the Madness begins on March 19:
No. 9 UAB Upset No. 8 Washington (+1) and No. 1 Kentucky (+10.5)
Who could do it this year?: Creighton Bluejays (24-7 SU, 15-13-1 ATS)
Numerous bracket predictors have the Bluejays pegged as a No. 9 seed in the NCAA. Creighton was a regular in the Top 25 until hitting a three-game skid in early February. The Bluejays have the experience and star power – forward Doug McDermott – to shock their way into the Sweet 16.
No. 12 Pacific Upset No. 5 Providence (+7)
Who could do it this year?: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (27-4 SU, 14-13 ATS)
Barring another collapse in the Sun Belt tournament, MTSU should be dancing come Selection Sunday. The Blue Raiders cut their postseason teeth with a strong run in the NIT last year and are among the toughest defensive programs in the country (57.4 points allowed per game – 16th overall).
No. 10 Nevada Upset No. 7 Michigan State (+2.5) and No. 2 Gonzaga (+9)
Who could do it this year?: Oklahoma Sooners (19-9 SU, 16-8 ATS)
Some bracketologist have the Sooners on the NCAA bubble but stamped as a No. 10 seed. Oklahoma has upset potential, knocking off Kansas, and has been one of the best bets in college hoops this year. The Sooners’ biggest weapon may be their free-throw shooting (76 percent), which is key in tournament upsets.
No. 12 Manhattan Upset No. 5 Florida (+4.5)
Who could do it this year?: Akron Zips (23-5 SU, 13-9-1 ATS)
The Zips had a 19-game winning streak snapped this past weekend, a nice wakeup call heading into the final week of the schedule. Akron is one of the better balanced teams – offense and defense – in the country and nearly knocked off No. 14 Oklahoma State in overtime early in the season.
-- Georgetown won six of last seven games with Villanova, winning three of last four visits here, with wins by 3-2-3 points; Hoyas won 11 games in row, winning SU last four times they were underdog. Big East home teams are 15-28 if spread is 5 or less points. Villanova lost its last two games but won five of last six at home- they're 4-3 as Big East favorite. Georgetown hasn't lost since Jan 19 at South Florida.
-- Iowa State (+6.5) lost 78-76 at Oklahoma State Jan 30, despite going 13-24 behind arc; Cyclones lost six of last seven games with OSU, with last five series games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-8 vs spread. ISU lost its last couple games, needs this win to enhance shaky resume- they're 6-1 as favorite in Big X home games. Cowboys are won 10 of their last 11 games.
-- North Carolina won/covered its last five games; they beat Maryland 62-52 (-6) in first meeting, game they led 42-20 at half. UNC won last five series games, but lost three of last four visits here, and since Terps are heading to Big Dozen, this is Tar Heels' last visit here. Maryland is 5-1 in last six home games, losing to Virginia; they're 3-3 in last six tilts overall. ACC home teams are 12-4 if spread is 2 or less points.
-- LSU (-1) fell behind 21-7 early, but forced 24 Texas A&M turnovers and rallied to beat Aggies 58-54 Jan 23; Tigers were 0-4 at time, are 8-4 since. LSU is 2-6 on SEC road, but 3-2 as road underdog. Aggies are 5-9 in last 14 games, but won three of last four at home- they're 3-2 as SEC favorites. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-11 vs spread. LSU covered nine of its last twelve games overall.
-- VCU led by 7 with 0:37 left, lost 86-74 in OT Jan 24 at Richmond, its second loss in last nine series games; Spiders lost last five trips here, by 5-8-20-8-22 points. Rams won last four games by 16+ points, covering last three; they're 4-3 as A-16 home favorites. A-16 home favorites of 8+ points are 14-16 vs spread. Richmond is 1-6 on A-16 road, with four losses by 7 or less points- they're 2-4 as A-16 road underdogs.
-- NC State (-7.5) lost 86-84 at Wake Forest Jan 22, game Wolfpack led by 12 at half; Wake lost last seven visits here, last two by 21-11- home teams won 10 of last 12 series games. ACC double digit home favorites are 15-4 vs spread. Deacons are 0-8 on ACC road, covering once in last five away games (6 of 8 road losses by 14+). State won five of last six games, is 4-2 as home favorite (home wins by 13-8-4-8-4-18-18).
-- Minnesota (-17) shot 59.6% inside arc, beat Nebraska 84-65 Jan 29, Gophers' 4th straight series win- they won by 9-8 in last two visits here. Cornhuskers lost six of last eight games, but are 3-2 in last five at home, covering all five games (4-2 as home dog). Big Dozen single digit home underdogs are 11-14 vs spread. Minnesota lost six games in row on road since beating Illinois 84-67 (-1.5) in Big Dozen road opener Jan 9.
-- Xavier beat Saint Louis 71-64 in A-16 tourney LY, after getting swept in season series by Billikens, their only two wins in last 12 series games. SLU won/covered its last 11 games; they're 4-0 as A-16 road fave, with five of last six road wins by 8+ points. Xavier is 2-3 in last five games; three of their last four losses are by 5 or less points- they're 4-3 as a dog. A-16 home dogs of 5 or less points are 6-11 against the spread.
-- Cal Bears won last seven games, covered last five at home; they're 6-2 as Pac-12 home favorites, with last four home wins by 8+. Stanford (-6) outscored Cal 25-11 from foul line, beat Bears 69-59 Jan 19; home teams won last five series games, as Cardinal lost last four visits here, by 7-26-19-10 points. Stanford is 2-3 as a Pac-12 road underdog. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-21 against the spread.
-- USC (-1.5) beat Washington 71-60 Feb 10, just third win for hosts in last 10 series games; Huskies were 4-14 from foul line that day- they've won three of last four games, are 4-3 at home, winning last two here by 10-4 points. USC won six of last eight games overall; they're 3-2 in last five visits here. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-21 vs spread. Trojans are 4-3 as Pac-12 road underdog, 2-3 under Cantu.
-- Portland is only 4-12 in WCC, but they swept LMU this year, with 68-64/69-60 wins; Pilots are 8-4 in last 12 series games- they made 15 of 25 3-pointers vs LMU this year. Lions lost last 14 games, with four of last six losses by 3 or less points. Portland is 3-4 in its last seven games, after 7-game skid- they're 3-9 in WCC tourney last nine years. LMU won its first tourney game last two years, by 3-4 points.
-- Eastern Illinois is 8-3 in last 11 games, after starting season 3-16; they split pair with SE Missouri this year, winning first game at home in OT, then trailing by 25 at half in rematch. Panthers are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as an underdog. Redhawks won five of last seven games with an upset of Murray State last week; they won game in this event LY for first time in seven years. OVC double digit favorites are 11-16.
-- Morehead State (-6.5) beat UT-Martin 88-74 Jan 19 in only meeting this year, despite UTM going 28-37 on four line- they shot 29% inside arc. Eagles are 8-2 in this event last four years, winning it twice; they're 3-6 in last nine games overall. Skyhawks upset Murray as 20-point dogs last week; they're 5-8 vs spread as OVC underdogs, but 4-1 if getting double digits. OVC favorites of less than 5 points are 16-14 vs spread.
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at University Center, Macon, GA
Florida Gulf Coast 73, North Florida 68
MERCER 78, Lipscomb 59
Northeast Conference Tournament
Quarterfinals at campus sites
BRYANT 79, Mount St. Mary's 77
LONG ISLAND 84, Quinnipiac 80
ROBERT MORRIS 80, St. Francis (N.Y.) 66
WAGNER 85, Central Connecticut State 72
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
1st Round at Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN
Morehead State 83, UT Martin 73
Southeast Missouri 72, Eastern Illinois 68
Patriot League Tournament
Quarterfinals at campus sites
ARMY 70, American 58
BUCKNELL 65, Navy 40
LAFAYETTE 72, Holy Cross 60
LEHIGH 75, Colgate 56
West Coast Conference Tournament
1st Round at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Loyola Marymount 66, Portland 65
Atlantic 10 Conference
Charlotte 75, DUQUESNE 72
DAYTON 78, St. Bonaventure 74
LA SALLE 74, George Washington 61
SAINT JOSEPH'S 71, Rhode Island 60
Saint Louis 65, XAVIER 58
Temple 81, FORDHAM 68
VCU 78, Richmond 64
Atlantic Coast Conference
MIAMI (FLA.) 69, Georgia Tech 52
NC STATE 82, Wake Forest 64
North Carolina 75, MARYLAND 70
Big 12 Conference
OKLAHOMA 76, West Virginia 62
Oklahoma State 78, IOWA STATE 75
Big East Conference
Connecticut 65, SOUTH FLORIDA 58
Georgetown 62, VILLANOVA 58
SYRACUSE 84, DePaul 61
Big Ten Conference
Michigan 67, PURDUE 63
Minnesota 62, NEBRASKA 56
EAST CAROLINA 77, Tulane 69
HOUSTON 81, Rice 67
TULSA 68, Smu 62
UAB 74, Ucf 67
Mountain West Conference
Colorado State 61, WYOMING 58
New Mexico 70, NEVADA 57
SAN DIEGO STATE 72, Air Force 60
CALIFORNIA 70, Stanford 61
Ucla 72, WASHINGTON STATE 66
WASHINGTON 68, Usc 64
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record.
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
CBB CHARLOTTE at DUQUESNE
Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CHARLOTTE) after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 85 points or more.
87-45 since 1997. ( 65.9% 38.5 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.0 units )
CBB MINNESOTA at NEBRASKA
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.
136-76 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.2% 52.4 units )
12-8 this year. ( 60.0% 3.2 units )