03/05/2013 04:37 PM
College Basketball Premium Picks
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NCAA-B | Mar 05 '13 (7:00p)
Illinois vs Iowa Iowa
-3½-109 at 5dimes
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -3.5
This is a must-win game for the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini. At 18-11 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play, Iowa needs a big finish to get into the NCAA Tournament. It needs a win tonight, at home against Nebraska, and in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and it will likely be in as it would move above .500 in the brutal Big Ten.
Illinois comes in overvalued due to having won six of its last seven games overall. Most of those victories have come against Big Ten bottom feeders in Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State and Nebraska. This team should not be getting this much respect on the road tonight.
That's especially the case considering how well Iowa has played at home this season. It is 14-2 inside of Carver Hawkeye Arena while outscoring opponents by a whopping 16.8 points/game. It has home wins over NCAA Tournament contenders in Minnesota (72-51), Wisconsin (70-66) and Iowa State (80-71).
Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Iowa is 7-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Hawkeyes. Bet Iowa Tuesday.
NCAA-B | Mar 05 '13 (7:00p)
ST. JOHNS vs NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME
-9½-110 at BetOnline
15* Big East GAME OF THE NIGHT on Notre Dame -9.5
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a ton of reasons to be motivated for a victory tonight over the St. Johns Red Storm. I like their chances of getting a double-digit blowout victory with everything they have working in their favor tonight.
First, this is Senior Night for the Fighting Irish. Jack Cooley should be motivated for his final home game on what figures to be an emotional night since sixth-year forward Scott Martin will also be honored. Martin has been shut down indefinitely since Jan. 21 due to his recurring knee problems.
Cooley was held scoreless for the first time in 57 games in a 72-64 loss at then-No. 22 Marquette on Saturday. He hadn't practiced the previous two days and was on an IV because of the flu. He played just 15 minutes against the Golden Eagles before being shut down as he simply wasn't himself. Healthy now, and motivated to bounce back from that defeat, I look for a huge game from Cooley in this one.
Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Fighting Irish have lost three straight to St. Johns heading into this one, including a 63-67 road loss to the Red Storm in their first meeting of the season on January 15th. All three of their losses during this skid have come on the road, but the Irish return home for revenge.
Notre Dame is 16-2 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 12.9 points/game. St. Johns is just 4-6 in true road games this season. The Red Storm figure to be an easier opponent Tuesday as losers of four of five. D'Angelo Harrison, averaging 17.8 points to rank among the conference's leaders, was suspended for the rest of the season Friday by coach Steve Lavin.
St. Johns is 0-7 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Red Storm are 1-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends combine for a 20-1 system backing the Irish. Also, the home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Irish winning each of their last three home meetings by 13 points or more. Take Notre Dame Tuesday.
NCAA-B | Mar 05 '13 (7:00p)
BOSTON COLLEGE vs CLEMSON CLEMSON
-4-110 at 5dimes
15* ACC GAME OF THE NIGHT on Clemson -4
The Boston College Eagles are coming off a big come-from-behind 53-52 home victory over NCAA Tournament contender Virginia on Sunday. Off such a huge upset, I look for the Eagles to fail to show up tonight when they travel to Clemson to take on the Tigers for a second time this season.
Clemson has every reason to be motivated tonight. It wants revenge from a 68-75 loss at Boston College on February 2nd in their first meeting of the season. This is also Senior Night for the Tigers as they clearly want to send out their seniors with one final home victory.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Boston College and Clemson. In fact, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2003 with the Tigers being the only team to nab a road win in 2009. Clemson is 5-0 in its last 5 home meetings with Boston College dating back to 2003. All five victories have come by 8 points or more and by an average of 16 points/game.
The Tigers are 31-13 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. Clemson is 58-37 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Clemson Tuesday.
NCAA-B | Mar 05 '13 (8:00p)
Texas Christian vs KANSAS STATE KANSAS STATE
-21-106 at 5dimes
15* Big 12 GAME OF THE NIGHT on Kansas State -21
Looking to regain a share of the conference lead, the Kansas State Wildcats will absolutely crush the TCU Horned Frogs at home tonight. This is also Senior Night for the Wildcats, meaning this will be the final home game for leading scorer Rodney McGruder (14.9 PPG) as well as Jordan Henriquez and Martavious Irving.
Kansas State clearly wont be lacking any motivated tonight as it looks to build on its 15-1 home record this year. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.0 points/game at home. TCU is just 1-9 in true road games, getting outscored by 16.2 points/game.
TCU made its season by beating Kansas 62-55 at home on February 6th as a 17-point underdog. It has clearly packed it in since and is simply playing out its season. That's evident by the fact that the Horned Frogs are 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall, which includes losses at Oklahoma (48-75), Iowa State (53-87) and Kansas (48-74).
The Horned Frogs are 0-9 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Horned Frogs are 0-7 ATS after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. TCU is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. These five trends combine for a perfect 35-0 system backing the Wildcats. Bet Kansas State Tuesday.
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