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System Plays - Home at Last
March 2, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
College Basketball's Last Home Games
With the Ides of March now upon us, and within the blink of an eye, the 2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament will begin its annual pulse-pounding extravaganza. In all likelihood hearts will be broken, a new champion crowned, and memories of upsets and game-winning shots will leave the court in assured dramatic fashion when the 'Big Dance' takes center stage in all of its glory on Thursday, March 21st.
Before we take in all the excitement 'Big Dance' has to offer there remains the final portion of the regular season as teams jockey for position prior to conference seeding tournament action. As you know, the higher the finish in the regular season standings the better the slotting a team gains in conference tourney play. And with it comes my favorite time of the regular season, namely College Basketball’s Last Home Games.
Last Home Game efforts often times finds a team putting its best foot forward. This happens primarily because teams choose to honor outgoing seniors in their final home game. It is 'their day', a game played in recognition of the sweat and toil laid on the line by seniors on the squad in their four years at the university. These games also carry added significance from other emotional angles as well.
Most teams look to leave a favorable impression in their final home game of the season. Adding fuel to the fire, revenge is a great performance enhancer in Last Home Game scenarios. Playing off a loss (or a string of defeats) tends to bring out the best in these finales. So, too, does playing in the role of an underdog, especially when it involves winning teams. In fact, a search of my database shows double digit (+10 or more points) conference underdogs in their final home game of the season are a rather nifty 74-55-3 ATS since 1990 heading into this season. Bring these guys in off either a double-digit spread win or a double-digit spread loss and they zoom to 17-5-1 ATS and 20-6-1 ATS respectively.
Think about that. As bad as they are, even double-digit home underdogs get up for their Last Home Game of the season, beating the spread over 57% of the time on the blind.
From this theory I have developed the most powerful Last Home Game Super System in College Basketball handicapping – bar none.
These plays produced a documented overall winning percentage of 70% ATS overall since 1980! Best of all you can get in on these fully Qualified Last Home Game Super System plays right here on VegasInsider.com from now until the end of the season. Be sure to check in daily for word on any and all qualifying plays as they happen.
As the final stretch run of the 2012-13 college basketball regular season is suddenly upon us, let me leave you with this list of 100% PERFECT ATS performers in Last Home Games. A minimum of five years of results was necessary to qualify...
ST. BONAVENTURE 5-0
TOWSON ST 5-0
BALL ST 0-7
FYI: Ohio University leads all teams long-term in Last Home Games, going 14-1 ATS. On the flip side, the biggest long-term loser is currently Duquesne at 1-11-1 ATS.
There you have it, my take on teams to watch in their Last Home Games of the season this year.
By 'Playing On' and 'Playing Against' each of the perfect performers on this list I'm certain you'll put yourself into position for the best time of the year, the upcoming NCAA Tournament. And by utilizing my famous Last Home Game Super System plays I guarantee you will!
Enjoy the games...
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