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Michigan State at Michigan: What bettors need to know
Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines (-4, 132.5)
Michigan’s Big Ten title hopes probably ended after blowing a 15-point lead in the second half and losing at last-place Penn State on Wednesday. The fourth-ranked Wolverines should be an angry, focused group when they return home to face rival Michigan State on Sunday afternoon. Michigan can still be a major factor in the conference and NCAA tournaments, but must find answers after losing four of its last seven. The Wolverines are certainly comfortable at home where they are 16-0 overall and 7-0 in the Big Ten. However, they were hammered at Michigan State 75-52 on Feb. 12.
The 10th-ranked Spartans also need to restart, coming off consecutive losses to Indiana and Ohio State. Michigan State, which outrebounded Michigan 39-27 in the first meeting, is 5-3 on the road in conference play and stands one game behind Indiana in the Big Ten going into the weekend.
TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (22-6, 11-4 Big Ten): One of the reasons the Spartans could not get over the hump in close games against the Buckeyes and Hoosiers was leading scorer Keith Appling’s sudden shooting slump. The junior guard was 2-of-14 from the field and 0-of-6 from 3-point range the last two contests, dropping his scoring average to 13.4 -- slightly ahead of freshman guard Gary Harris (13.2). Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix have done a solid job inside, both averaging more than 12 points the last five games. Payne, Nix and Branden Dawson (10.4 points) all shoot over 50 percent from the field.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (23-5, 10-5): The Wolverines might have needed the slap in the face from Penn State to get back to basics and finish strong. After facing the Spartans, Michigan plays at Purdue and hosts Indiana to end the regular season. Player of the year candidate Trey Burke hasn’t slowed down, shooting 49.6 percent from the field. Burke is second in the Big Ten in scoring (18.8) and first in assists (6.9). Tim Hardaway Jr., averaging 15.2 points, will have to be better than the 1-of-11 shooting performance at Michigan State. The Wolverines can also play better defense. They stand ninth in field-goal percentage defense in Big Ten games.
* Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Wolverines’ last eight vs. a team with a winning record.
1. The Spartans are third in the Big Ten in scoring defense and Michigan is second in offense.
2. Michigan F/C Jordan Morgan scored 11 points against Penn State, his first time in double figures since Jan. 3.
3. The Wolverines lead the all-time series 94-76, but Michigan State has won 20 of the last 26 meetings.
No. 4 Michigan hosts No. 9 MSU on Sunday
by Brian Graham
Crisler Center - Ann Arbor, MI
Tip-off: Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -3.5
After a stunning loss at Penn State on Wednesday, No. 4 Michigan tries to get back in the win column Sunday in a showdown with in-state rival No. 9 Michigan.
In addition to trying to redeem themselves after losing to a 13-point underdog, the Wolverines are also aiming to avenge a 75-52 blowout loss in East Lansing two weeks ago when the Spartans outshot them 48.4% FG to 39.6% FG and outrebounded them by a hefty 40-28 margin. Michigan finished the month of February with a 3-4 SU record and a dismal 1-6 ATS mark. MSU has also been struggling since beating the Wolverines, going 0-2-1 ATS, and losing back-to-back games to Indiana and Ohio State. The Spartans are 14-6 SU in the past 20 meetings with Michigan, but the Wolverines are 10-10 ATS during this span with three SU wins in the past five matchups. This game will likely be low-scoring, as the Under is 12-3 (80%) in this series since 2005.
Michigan State is not a team that wins with a fast-paced offense (69.6 PPG, 53.3 FGA per game), but it doesn't take many bad shots, connecting on 46.8% FG and 34.7% threes. The Spartans drain only 5.0 threes per game, but they always work hard on the glass (+7.0 RPG margin) and their defense produces 8.3 steals per game. MSU is one of the tougher teams to score on in the nation, as it allows a mere 59.9 PPG on 39.3% FG and 31.8% threes this season. Junior PG Keith Appling (13.4 PPG, 3.8 APG) is a solid floor general with a 1.54 Ast/TO ratio and 1.4 SPG on the defensive end, but his offense has been lagging this season with 40.5% FG and 31.6% threes. His 2-for-14 shooting (0-for-6 threes) over the past two games is a big reason why Michigan State lost both contests. Appling has averaged 10.3 PPG in his past four meetings with Michigan, but made just 4-of-14 shots (1-for-6 threes) on Feb. 12. Swingman Branden Dawson (10.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG) scored 10 points in that win over Michigan, but has just 6.7 PPG and 3.7 PPG in three games since. Junior PF Adreian Payne (9.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) has been outstanding in these past three games with 14.7 PPG (58% FG) and 12.0 RPG, but was a non-factor in the win over Michigan with four points in 30 minutes. Freshman SG Gary Harris (13.2 PPG) scored a team-high 17 points (5-of-9 threes) in the win over the Wolverines, which started a four-game streak of 14+ points. He's averaging 16.0 PPG on 54% FG over these four contests and dished out five assists in Sunday's loss in Columbus. Senior C Derrick Nix (9.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) has given Michigan fits in the past two seasons with 11.0 PPG on 58% FG in three meetings. He's also averaged 12.8 PPG on 53% FG in his past five contests.
Michigan boasts an impressive offense that scores 76.0 PPG on a blistering 49.5% FG (6th in D-I) and 39.3% threes (16th in nation). Another big reason the Wolverines are so efficient on offense is because they have the 3rd-best Ast/TO ratio in the nation (1.53), thanks to a mere 9.7 TOPG (3rd-fewest in D-I). They also commit the 2nd-fewest fouls (12.5 per game) in the country, which makes up for a lack of depth, especially in the backcourt. But the conservative defense also leads to a mere 5.8 SPG and 2.6 BPG. In Wednesday's upset loss, Michigan outshot (52% FG to 47% FG) and outrebounded (37-27) Penn State, but also committed six more turnovers (15 to 9) and allowed the Nittany Lions to make 10-of-20 threes. Michigan's offense is fueled by its outstanding backcourt of PG Trey Burke (18.8 PPG, 6.9 APG) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (15.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG). Both players shoot 46% or better from the floor, with Hardaway Jr. draining 40% of his three-point tries and Burke leading the nation with a 3.57 Ast/TO ratio. Burke has scored at least 15 points in each of his past 16 games, including 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting in the loss in East Lansing. Although Burke also scored 18 points on Wednesday, he committed a season-high six turnovers in the loss at Penn State. Hardaway has been horrible in the past three meetings with MSU, scoring only 5.3 PPG on 5-of-30 FG, including 0-for-12 from three-point land. Two weeks ago in East Lansing, he made 1-of-11 shots and finished with two points. Hardaway did play well in Happy Valley though, with 19 points (8-of-16 FG) and seven rebounds. Freshman F/G Nik Stauskas (11.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG) continues to be a key player for this team, coming off a solid 12 points (5-of-9 FG) and eight rebounds in Wednesday's loss. He scored 10 points in the earlier meeting with Michigan State. Freshman F Glenn Robinson III (11.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) recorded just two points (1-of-4 FG) against the Spartans, but has averaged 13.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG in three games since. But fellow freshman PF Mitch McGary (6.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) has been struggling recently with just 3.5 PPG and 3.0 RPG in the past four games. He logged only eight minutes in Wednesday's loss. Junior PF Jordan Morgan (5.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) was the team's most effective frontcourt player against Penn State with 11 points (5-of-6 FG) and five rebounds in 24 minutes. Morgan had only one point and two rebounds in nine minutes of action in East Lansing.
The Spartans look to take advantage of a Michigan team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan State is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
SUNDAY, MARCH 3
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 819-820: Michigan State at Michigan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 74.625; Michigan 72.077
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Michigan by 4 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+4 1/2); Under
Game 821-822: Villanova at Pittsburgh (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 64.006; Pittsburgh 74.377
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-9)
Game 823-824: Florida State at North Carolina (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 55.689; North Carolina 74.209
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 18 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 13; 147
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-13); Over
Game 825-826: DePaul at South Florida (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 54.781; South Florida 59.216
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 3
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-3)
Game 827-828: Washington State at Washington (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 58.258; Washington 63.052
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5; 126
Vegas Line: Washington by 7; 131
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+7); Under
Game 829-830: Virginia at Boston College (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 71.331; Boston College 63.410
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 8
Vegas Line: Virginia by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-4 1/2)
Game 831-832: Utah at Stanford (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 56.008; Stanford 68.506
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 10
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-10)
Game 833-834: NC State at Georgia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 67.465; Georgia Tech 62.314
Dunkel Line: NC State by 5; 142
Vegas Line: NC State by 4; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-4); Over
Game 835-836: Manhattan at Loyola-MD (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 50.800; Loyola-MD 59.394
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 7
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-7)
Game 837-838: Fairfield at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 51.946; Marist 55.051
Dunkel Line: Marist by 3
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+4 1/2)
Game 839-840: Siena at Iona (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 41.204; Iona 60.110
Dunkel Line: Iona by 19
Vegas Line: Iona by 17
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-17)
Game 841-842; Purdue at Wisconsin (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 58.062; Wisconsin 80.665
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 22 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14; 118
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-14); Over
Play On - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (WISCONSIN) after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games.
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
CBB MICHIGAN ST at MICHIGAN
Play Against - Any team (MICHIGAN) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games.
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% 27.1 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -3.0 units )
CBB PURDUE at WISCONSIN
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is 55.5 or less after allowing 55 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or less.
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )
It's the last home game of the season (senior night) for Georgia Tech, and it will be lacking no motivation as it looks to avenge a 13-point loss at NC State in the first meeting. The Wolfpack haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-5 in their last 6 with the lone win coming by only 1 point. They are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 road games. The Yellow Jackets are a solid 11-5 on their home floor, and although they have dropped 3 of their last 4 at home, 2 of the losses came by 3 points or less. The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings between these two, and I expect this trend to continue as the Jackets leave it all out on the floor on senior night. Take the points.
-- Home side won four of last five Purdue-Wisconsin games; Boilers lost last two visits here, by 7-7 points. Purdue lost seven of last nine games; they've lost last three on road, by 20-28-10 points-favorites covered all eight of their Big Dozen road games (0-6 as road dog). Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 13-11 vs spread. Wisconsin won seven of last eight games, covering last five; they're 3-4 as a home favorite.
-- Michigan State (+1.5) shot 55% inside arc, forced 16 turnovers (+8) in 75-52 thrashing of Michigan Feb 12, its 12th win in last 17 series games, but Spartans did lose last two visits here, by 1-7 points. State lost last two games; they're 5-3 on Big Dozen road, with losses by 13-5-8 points. Michigan is 3-4 in last seven games after bad loss at Penn State- they are 3-4 as home faves. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less are 14-7.
-- Pitt (-4.5) held Villanova to 32% from floor, forced 18 turnovers (+3) in 58-43 win in Philly Jan 16, Panthers' fifth straight series win, by 5-3-10-9-15 points. Pitt is a bully team; their last six wins were all by 10+ points- Panthers are 2-5 in league games decided by less than 10 points. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 11-17 vs spread. Villanova won five of last seven games; they're 4-2 vs spread as a road underdog.
-- North Carolina (+3) won 77-72 at Florida State Jan 12, shooting 53% inside arc, 8-20 outside it; Tar Heels won 13 of last 16 series games, are 5-1 in last six played here, with four wins by 13+. UNC won four in a row, all by 9+ points since losing at Duke; they're 5-2 as home favorites. ACC double digit home favorites are 14-5 vs spread. Seminoles are 2-5 in last seven games, losing last three on road by 25-18-10 points.
-- South Florida won its last seven games with DePaul, winning last two here by 9-11 points, but Bulls lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread) since upsetting Georgetown Jan 19, its only Big East win this season. USF is 0-1 as a league favorite. DePaul lost 11 of last 12 games, but is 4-3 as a road underdog, with four road losses by 11+ points, other two in OT. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 7-18 vs spread.
-- Washington (+4.5) won 68-63 in Pullman Jan 5, racing to 23-6 lead, blowing it, then rallying late for 8th win in last 10 series games. Cougars lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-28-10 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 18-29 vs spread. State is 2-5-1 as a road dog, with five of seven road losses by 11+ points. Huskies lost eight of last 11 games; they're 3-2 as home favorite, winning by 10-4-10 points.
-- Trap game for Virginia after it beat Duke last game; Cavaliers (-9) beat Boston College 65-51 at home Jan 26, shooting 64% inside arc but Cavs lost three of last four visits to BC, losing by 5-13-3 points. Eagles lost 10 of last 13 games but won three of last four at home, beating Wake and Maryland in last two at home. Five of BC's last seven games went under the total. ACC home underdogs are 21-9 against the spread.
-- Stanford (-3) made 9-15 from arc in 87-56 waxing of Utah Jan 27, kind of game losing side doesn't easily forget, especially when Cardinal lost five of last seven games, including last three at home. Utes lost three in a row, by 4-10-18 points, scoring 53.3 ppg; they're 5-3 as Pac-12 dogs on road. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 5-9 vs spread. Stanford lost four of last five games, failed to cover last four home games.
-- NC State (-9) beat Georgia Tech 83-70 at home Jan 9, shooting 54% inside arc in game they trailed by 4 with 10:17 left. Wolfpack won two of last three visits here, four of last five overall; they're 2-5 on road, 0-3 as road favorites, with only wins by 5 at BC, 1 at Clemson. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 13-7 vs spread. Tech is 5-8 in its last 13 games, losing three of last four at home (1-2 as ACC home dog).
-- Manhattan (+2.5) shot 31.1% from floor, 8-19 from foul line in 51-41 home loss to Loyola Jan 25, its fifth straight series loss, by 15-12-1-2-10 points. Jaspers won six of last seven games, are 6-0 as MAAC road dogs-- underdogs covered all eight of their road games. Loyola won five of last seven games; they're 3-5 vs spread as a home favorite. MAAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 9-17 against the spread.
-- Fairfield (-13) were up 20 at half, crushed Marist 71-37 Jan 24, its 7th win in last eight series games, but how do Stags bounce back from awful 34-31 loss at Manhattan Friday night? MAAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-5 vs spread. Fairfield won two of last three visits here; they lost four of last six on road. Marist won three of last four games, with three of those four wins by five or less points (4-2 as home dog).
-- Iona (-11) won 66-62 at Siena Jan 4, after being down 10 with 10:10 to play; Gaels lost their last six visits here, with last two by 6-3 points. Iona lost six of last eight games overall, with one of those eight decided by more than four points. Gaels are 4-4 as home faves (0-3 in last three). MAAC double digit home favorites are 8-6 vs spread. Siena lost six of last seven games; they're 3-5 as MAAC road underdogs.