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Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (W ILLINOIS) off a close home win by 3 points or less, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent.
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )
CBB TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GEORGIA) off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team.
135-76 since 1997. ( 64.0% 52.3 units )
3-8 this year. ( 27.3% -5.8 units )
CBB TEXAS at OKLAHOMA ST.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off an upset win as an underdog.
262-161 since 1997. ( 61.9% 84.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )
Alabama at Florida, Saturday, Mar. 2, 12:00 ET
These are the top two teams in the SEC with Florida still leading the way at 12-3 despite losing at Tennessee on Tuesday and Alabama one game back at 11-4 after suffocating Auburn 61-43 that same night, and points should be at a premium in this contest. The Gators are third in the country in defensive efficiency, sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed and eighth in two-point defense, which is important because Alabama is a poor three-point shooting team that gets most of its points inside. The Crimson Tide rank 28th in defensive efficiency and they have held 12 of their last 13 opponents below 60 points. The 'under' is 11-2 in the last 13 Alabama games when coming off of an 'under'.
Notre Dame at Marquette, Saturday, Mar. 2, 2:00 ET
The top of the Big East is quite surprising in the wake of Marquette knocking off Syracuse on Monday as Georgetown now leads the conference at 11-3 with the Golden Eagles only one-half game back at 11-4. The Eagles are now a perfect 15-0 here at home this season while winning by an average of nearly 11 points per game, and Marquette is up to 13th in the country in offensive efficiency. Notre Dame does not apply much pressure, ranking a dismal 339th in defensive turnover percentage, so the Golden Eagles should be able to run their sets basically unabated. This appears to be a tough matchup for a Fighting Irish defense ranked 115th in efficiency, especially at this venue. Marquette is 37-17-1 ATS in its last 55 conference games when coming off of a home game.
Massachusetts at Xavier, Saturday, Mar. 2, 2:00 ET
The 16-11 Xavier Musketeers are playing much better lately as they followed up a narrow 75-71 loss to a VCU team that owns the most efficient offense in the conference with an upset of nationally ranked Memphis on Tuesday, snapping the Tigers' 18-game winning streak. Massachusetts has taken a step back since a 16-6 start, although the Minutemen did snap a three-game losing streak with a 76-66 win over Dayton to go to 17-9. UMass has had some issues defensively, allowing a disgusting 89.3 points per game during the three-game losing steak, and the Minutemen are now 111th nationally in defensive efficiency and 134th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Also the last head-to-head meeting went safely 'over' in an 80-73 Massachusetts win. The 'over' is 10-2 in the last 12 Xavier games when coming off of three ATS wins.
The New Mexico Lobos can clinch at least a share of the Mountain West title with a home win Saturday over the Wyoming Cowboys. If that's not enough motivation then consider that this will be Senior Day for the Lobos as well as it is their final home game of the season. They'll finish up the year with road trips to Nevada and Air Force.
These players certainly want to send their seniors out with a victory in their final home game. I like their chances of doing so in blowout fashion inside "The Pit", which is one of the most underrated venues in all of college basketball. The Lobos are 14-1 at home this year where they are outscoring opponents by 11.8 points/game.
The Cowboys have little to play for the rest of the way as they have completely fallen flat on their faces over the past month or so. They have lost three straight and eight of their last 11 games overall while going a woeful 1-9 ATS in all lined games during this stretch. Four of their losses over this span have come by 12 points or more. That includes at UNLV (50-62), at Colorado State (46-65), at San Diego State (51-79) and vs. UNLV (42-65).
Wyoming is 0-7 ATS in road games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points over the last 3 seasons. New Mexico is 35-13 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Lobos 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. MWC opponents, including 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents this season. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Wyoming is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Lobos are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 home games. Bet New Mexico Saturday.
College Basketball Prediction From Robert Ferringo:
Take Tulane (+2) over Tulsa (4 p.m., Saturday, March 2)
Oh, how things change. Last year I couldn't get enough money down against Tulane. Injuries just creamed this team, and their young backcourt struggled mightily early in the season. I thought they would get creamed on the road at Tulsa last January, but they made some big shots and ended up only losing by four points. Now I think that Tulane can win this one outright against a really sagging Tulsa squad. Ricky Tarrant got off to a slow start to his sophomore campaign. But this kid can play. He struggled at Southern Miss. But he has averaged 25.5 points per game in his other four games since Feb. 6, and he is finding his stroke. Tulsa played a little above itself early in the conference season. But they are coming back down to earth. They have played a soft schedule over the past month and have still lost six of nine games. This team lost by nine at home to East Carolina and UAB and needed OT to beat! Houston. I think Tulane is better than all three of those teams. Look for Tarrant and Josh Davis to have big games and for the visitors to take this one.
All Plays Win
Louisville Cardinals +2 @ Syracuse Orange 5 Units on Louisville
Portland Pilots +26 @ Gonzaga Bulldogs 5 Units on Portland
Miami Hurricanes @ Duke Blue Devils -7 5 Units on Duke
Colorado Buffaloes @ California Golden Bears -4.5 5 Units on California
St. John's Red Storm @ Providence Friars -8 5 Units on Providence
(2:00) KANSAS 85 - West Virginia 66 (CBS)
(2:00) MARQUETTE 67 - Notre Dame 62 (ESPN)
(2:00) CINCINNATI 70 - Connecticut 68
(2:00) George Mason 73 - DELAWARE 69 (NBCS)
(2:00) WISCONSIN 78 - Purdue 52
(2:00) MINNESOTA 79 - Penn State 70
(2:00) TEMPLE 74 - Rhode Island 67
(2:00) Massachusetts 65 - XAVIER 61 (CBSC)
(2:00) LASALLE 83 - Duquesne 59
(2:00) NORTHERN IOWA 71 - Illinois State 64
(2:00) EVANSVILLE 68 - Indiana State 67
(2:00) MISSOURI STATE 72 - Bradley 63
(2:00) Ohio U 69 - BOWLING GREEN 62
(2:00) TOLEDO 70 - Ball State 77
(2:00) EASTERN MICHIGAN 65 - Western Michigan 58
(2:00) WRIGHT STATE 67 - Youngstown State 60
(2:00) ILLINOIS-CHICAGO 76 - Detroit 75 (BIG10)
(2:00) HOUSTON 71 - Marshall 59
(3:00) WISC-GREEN BAY 74 - Valparaiso 66 (ESPNU)
(3:00) Kent State 78 - MIAMI-OHIO 73
(3:00) LOYOLA-CHICAGO 75 - Cleveland State 66
(3:00) SAN DIEGO 67 - Pepperdine 66
(3:00) UAB 59 - Smu 49
(3:00) SO CALIFORNIA 80 - Arizona State 75 (FSN)
(3:00) Idaho 76 - TEXAS STATE 64