cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/11/2013 06:24 PM

Long Sheet

Monday, March 11

First Post


C MICHIGAN (11 - 19) at BUFFALO (12 - 19) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 35-51 ATS (-21.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 35-51 ATS (-21.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N ILLINOIS (5 - 24) at E MICHIGAN (14 - 17) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games this season.
E MICHIGAN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) against conference opponents this season.
E MICHIGAN is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
E MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
E MICHIGAN is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less this season.
N ILLINOIS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N ILLINOIS is 4-3 against the spread versus E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
E MICHIGAN is 4-3 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MIAMI OHIO (8 - 21) at BOWLING GREEN (13 - 18) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOWLING GREEN is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 4-2 straight up against MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


ST MARYS-CA (27 - 5) vs. GONZAGA (30 - 2) - 3/11/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 4-4 against the spread versus ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 5-3 straight up against ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MD-EAST SHORE (2 - 25) vs. SAVANNAH ST (18 - 13) - 3/11/2013, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAVANNAH ST is 2-0 straight up against MD-EAST SHORE over the last 3 seasons


S CAROLINA ST (6 - 23) vs. MORGAN ST (14 - 14) - 3/11/2013, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MORGAN ST is 4-0 straight up against S CAROLINA ST over the last 3 seasons


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/11/2013 06:26 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 11

-- James Madison outscored Delaware 7-0 over last 2:51 to nip Hens by a point, get to first CAA final since 1997; JMU (+4.5) lost 66-64 Feb 20 at Northeastern, game they led by 4 with 7:32 left. Northeastern had bye Saturday, fell behind 28-4 to George Mason Sunday, rallied to win by a hoop, forcing 20 turnovers, making 7-11 behind arc in second half. Over last decade, a top-two seed has won CAA tournament every year. This is third night in row for JMU playing, just second for Huskies.
-- This is fifth year in row St Mary's-Gonzaga meet in WCC final, with teams splitting previous four; over last nine years, Zags went unbeaten in CAA three times, and won WCC tourney final all three years, by 13-1-25 points- they beat St Mary's in both games this year, by 5-17 pts. Gaels were 12-35 from arc in last meeting, 11-23 inside arc. Pretty sure St Mary's is in NCAAs even if they lost. Both teams had Sunday off.
-- Davidson is 16-3 in last 19 SoCon tourney games, winning title four of last seven years; Wildcats beat Charleston twice this season, by 9-16, as Davidson shot 57/58% inside arc in those games. Cougars are 12-6 in last 18 tourney games, but haven't won event in over decade, losing in finals three of last six years, by 10-11-7 points. Davidson was down 13 with 15:00 to play yesterday; they had three guys play 32+ minutes, while Charleston had four guys play 32+- their bench played only 35:00.
-- Iona won last four games, scoring 84.5 ppg after odd 1-6 stretch where they lost all six games by 3 or less points, or in OT; Gaels had only one starter play less than 36 minutes Sunday- they beat Manhattan by 8 in first meeting, then lost rematch in double OT, despite Jaspers going 10 of 21 from foul line. Manhattan won eight of last ten games after starting season 6-15; they turn ball over 25.6% of time, 3rd-worst in country.

-- Buffalo is 6-2 in this round last nine years, Central Michigan 4-1 in its last six. Bulls lost four of last five games; they turned ball over 24.4% of time, in bottom 10 in country. Buffalo (-7.5) beat Chippewas 91-73 at home Jan 30, making 67% inside arc, turning ball over 19 times. Central lost 11 of last 13 games; six of their last eight games went over the total. Over is 5-0-1 in last six Buffalo games; Bulls covered once in their last four games as a favorite.
-- Northern Illinois lost its last ten games, scoring 48.9 ppg; eight of its last nine games stayed under total. Huskies lost to Eastern Michigan in both meetings this year, 42-25/53-41-- they were 6-50 from arc in those games, trailed first meeting 18-4 at half. NIU is 1-9 in this event last nine years, with four of last seven losses by 6 or less points. Eastern is 3-6 in its last nine games, allowing 50 or less points in its last four wins- they won four of last five games in this round of MAC tourney.
-- Miami lost its last nine games and 13 of last 14; they split pair with Bowling Green this year, winning 63-60 (-3) at home, losing 52-44 (+7) in rematch here 12 days ago. Redhawks are 5-3 vs spread as road dog in MAC play; they're 1-4 in this event last four years, Falcons 2-7 in last seven. Last four Miami games stayed under total. Bowling Green's last seven wins were all by 8+ points; they're 4-1 as MAC home favorites.

-- IPFW ran Oakland off floor 91-79 Sunday, shooting 63% from floor, 12-20 behind arc vs worst defensive team in country; Mastadons lost to South Dakota State twice this year, 83-57 (+12) on road, 80-74 at home (+7.5). Jackrabbits had yesterday off; they're just 4-3 last seven games, but they covered last four games as Summit favorite. IPFW won last six games, covered last eight- they scored 82.5 ppg in last four, but hard to tell if offense is better, since three of those four were vs Oakland.
-- North Dakota State trailed at half, beat UMKC by 11 Sunday, but had to play all five starters 32+ minutes; Bison lost twice to Western Illinois this year, 50-42/49-36 after losing to Leathernecks by 5 in LY's Summit tourney. WIU won its last three games by total of six points with star Parks hurt; their last four Summit tourney games were all decided by 5 or less points. Western had yesterday off. Bison were 5-33 from arc in the two losses to WIU this season.
-- Western Kentucky/FIU both pulled upsets last night, winner here is probably headed to Dayton next week. Home side won both series tilts this year; WKU (-4.5) won 79-68 in first meeting Dec 1, then lost 87-82 at FIU (-2.5) 13 nights ago. Hilltoppers won this tourney LY, winning four straight days by 5 or less points after going 7-9 in league- they were 10-10 this year. Price was only WKU guy to play more than 31 minutes Sunday. FIU beat top-seed MTSU for fifth win in last six games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/11/2013 06:27 PM


Monday, March 11

St. Mary's vs. Gonzaga: What bettors need to know

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s (-5.5, 137.5)

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s had to work harder than anticipated to reach the West Coast Conference tournament final for the fifth straight season Monday night in Las Vegas. The top-ranked Bulldogs weren’t able to put away ninth-seeded Loyola Marymount until midway through the second half of Saturday’s semifinal. The No. 23 Gaels needed overtime to beat sixth-seeded San Diego in the other semi.

Gonzaga won both previous meetings this season against Saint Mary's, a five-point victory Jan. 10 at Saint Mary’s and a 17-point win a month later in Spokane, Wash. The Bulldogs feature three players who made the all-WCC first team. Kelly Olynyk, a 7-foot junior center, averages a team-high 17.3 points. He’s backed by 6-8 senior forward Elias Harris (14.8) and 6-2 sophomore guard Kevin Pangos (11.8). Saint Mary’s is led by 6-4 senior point guard Matthew Dellavedova, the school’s all-time career scoring leader who averages 16.2 points and 6.4 assists.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN3.

ABOUT GONZAGA (30-2): Olynyk had a rare off night in the semifinals, scoring eight points on 3-for-10 shooting. He hasn’t been held to single digits in back-to-back games this season or shot under 55 percent from the floor in consecutive games. He scored 31 points when these teams first met and came back with 17 points in the second game. Saint Mary’s is very familiar with Olynyk, but it doesn’t mean the Gaels have anyone who can stop him. Brad Waldow, a 6-9 sophomore forward, will likely draw that assignment for Saint Mary’s.

ABOUT SAINT MARY’S (27-5): Waldow scored a career-high 23 points and matched his career best with 16 rebounds in the semifinal win against San Diego. He showed his toughness during the game when a front tooth was knocked out during the second half and he attempted to hand it off to coach Randy Bennett while continuing to run the floor. He eventually had to be taken out to stop the bleeding. The player who needs to step up for the Gaels is junior guard Stephen Holt, who was held to three points on 1-for-7 shooting against San Diego.


* Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.

* Gaels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.

* Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.


1. Gonzaga has won 30 games for the first time in school history.

2. The Bulldogs have reached the title game 18 consecutive seasons.

3. With his next start, Dellavedova will break the school record for games started at 134. Omar Samhan set the current mark from 2006-10.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/11/2013 06:29 PM


Monday, March 11

New Mexico favored to repeat at MWC tourney

The 2013 Mountain West Conference Tournament is scheduled to be played at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada from March 12-15.

With TCU departing for the Big 12, and Fresno State and Nevada joining the conference, the MWC will have a nine-team tournament this year. Nevada and Wyoming kick off the tourney on Tuesday and the winner will receive an automatic bid to the 2013 NCAA Tournament.

The New Mexico Lobos, who were upset by Air Force in their season finale, are the defending champs and favored to repeat this year.

Here are the outright odds courtesy of The Greek:

New Mexico +125
UNLV +150
San Diego State +350
Colorado State +400
Boise State +800
Air Force +1,200
Fresno State +2,500
Nevada +2,500
Wyoming +2,500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/11/2013 06:31 PM

Long Sheet

Monday, March 11



JAMES MADISON (19 - 14) vs. NORTHEASTERN (20 - 11) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHEASTERN is 2-1 against the spread versus JAMES MADISON over the last 3 seasons
NORTHEASTERN is 2-1 straight up against JAMES MADISON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


W KENTUCKY (19 - 15) vs. FLA INTERNATIONAL (18 - 13) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W KENTUCKY is 4-3 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 5-2 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


IUPU-FT WAYNE (16 - 16) vs. S DAKOTA ST (23 - 9) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
S DAKOTA ST is 6-1 against the spread versus IUPU-FT WAYNE over the last 3 seasons
S DAKOTA ST is 7-0 straight up against IUPU-FT WAYNE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


N DAKOTA ST (23 - 8) vs. W ILLINOIS (22 - 7) - 3/11/2013, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W ILLINOIS is 6-1 against the spread versus N DAKOTA ST over the last 3 seasons
W ILLINOIS is 6-1 straight up against N DAKOTA ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


COLL OF CHARLESTON (24 - 9) vs. DAVIDSON (25 - 7) - 3/11/2013, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DAVIDSON is 3-3 against the spread versus COLL OF CHARLESTON over the last 3 seasons
DAVIDSON is 4-2 straight up against COLL OF CHARLESTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MANHATTAN (14 - 17) vs. IONA (19 - 13) - 3/11/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 3-2 against the spread versus IONA over the last 3 seasons
IONA is 4-2 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




Game 511-512: James Madison vs. Northeastern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 53.323; Northeastern 52.378
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 1; 132
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 1 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (+1 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Western Kentucky vs. Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 54.275; Florida International 48.950
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 5 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 2 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-2 1/2); Under

Game 525-526: IPFW vs. South Dakota State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 54.484; South Dakota State 57.283
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 3; 131
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 8; 135
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (+8); Under

Game 527-528: North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 57.206; Western Illinois 52.776
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 4 1/2; 105
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 6 1/2; 101
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+6 1/2); Over

Game 529-530: College of Charleston vs. Davidson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 54.140; Davidson 63.566
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 9 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Davidson by 7; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-7); Over

Game 531-532: Manhattan vs. Iona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 54.857; Iona 60.339
Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Iona by 4; 134
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-4); Under


Short Sheet

Monday, March 11

CAA Tournament, Championship
James Madison vs. Northeastern, 7:00 ET NBCSN
James Madison: 6-1 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Northeastern: 2-9 ATS after winning 15+ of their last 20 games

Sunbelt Tournament, Championship
Western Kentucky vs. Florida International, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Western Kentucky: 10-3 ATS in March
Florida Int: 1-6 ATS off ATS wins in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

MAC Tournament, First Round
Central Michigan at Buffalo, 7:00 ET
Central Michigan: 5-17 ATS after losing 8+ of their last 10 games
Buffalo: 10-2 ATS playing their third game in a week

MAC Tournament, First Round
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan, 7:00 ET
Northern Illinois: 9-0 ATS away after having 9 or less assists
Eastern Michigan: 3-11 ATS in first round tournament games

MAC Tournament, First Round
Miami OH at Bowling Green, 7:00 ET
Miami OH: 0-6 ATS in tournament games
Bowling Green: 18-9 ATS at home

WCC Tournament, Championship
St. Mary's vs. (#1) Gonzaga, 7:00 ET ESPN
St. Mary's: 10-19 ATS off BB conference games
Gonzaga: 9-2 ATS off an ATS loss

Summit Tournament, Semifinals
IPFW vs. South Dakota State, 7:00 ET
IPFW: 11-2 ATS off an ATS win
South Dakota State: 3-7 ATS off a SU win / ATS loss

Summit Tournament, Semifinals
North Dakota State vs. Western Illinois, 9:30 ET
North Dakota State: 4-17 ATS off a conference win by 10+ points
Western Illinois: 6-1 ATS playing on a neutral court

Southern Tournament, Championship
College of Charleston vs. Davidson, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Charleston: 0-6 ATS off 4+ wins
Davidson: 12-7 ATS off 4+ games allowing 65 points or less

MAAC Tournament, Championship
Manhattan vs. Iona, 9:00 ET ESPN2
Manhattan: 7-0 ATS off a combined score of 110 points or less
Iona: 0-6 ATS playing their third game in a week

MEAC Tournament, First Round
MD Eastern Shore vs. Savannah State, 6:30 ET
MD Eastern Shore: 7-3 ATS off a combined score of 125 points or less
Savannah State: 1-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less

MEAC Tournament, First Round
South Carolina State vs. Morgan State, 9:00 ET
South Carolina State: 10-3 ATS playing their second game in a week
Morgan State: 1-5 ATS off an ATS win

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/11/2013 06:36 PM

Monday, March 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Savannah State - 6:30 PM ET Maryland - E. Shore +12 500
Maryland - E. Shore -

Northern Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Northern Illinois +8.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

Central Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan +8 500
Buffalo -

Miami (OH) - 7:00 PM ET Bowling Green -7 500
Bowling Green -

James Madison - 7:00 PM ET Northeastern -2 500 POD
Northeastern - Under 127 500

Charleston - 7:00 PM ET Davidson -7 500
Davidson - Over 127.5 500

Western Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -2.5 500
Florida International - Under 137 500

IUPU - Ft. Wayne - 7:00 PM ET IUPU - Ft. Wayne +8.5 500
South Dakota State -

Morgan St. - 9:00 PM ET South Carolina State +13 500
South Carolina State -

St. Mary's - 9:00 PM ET Gonzaga -6 500 POD # 2
Gonzaga - Over 135 500

Manhattan - 9:00 PM ET Manhattan +4 500
Iona - Over 134.5 500

North Dakota State - 9:30 PM ET North Dakota State -6 500 POD # 3
Western Illinois -

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/12/2013 12:06 PM

Tuesday's Championships

March 12, 2013

It is Championship Week in men's college basketball as all week long teams will be looking to punch an automatic ticket to this year's NCAA Tournament by winning their conference tournament. The following is a closer look at three championship games on Tuesday night's slate along with some facts and figures to help handicap the games.

Northeast Conference (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Mount St. Mary's entered the Northeast Conference Tournament as the No.5 seed after posting an 11-7 straight-up record in conference play that included a seven-game winning streak to close-out the regular season. The Mountaineers stayed hot with a first-round 75-69 win over Bryant as 3 ½-point underdog and a stunning 69-60 upset of No.1 Robert Morris as 8 ½-point underdogs in Saturday's semifinals. The total stayed UNDER in both those games.

For a team that averaged 69.8 points a game this year, it found its scoring groove at just the right time with 73 points or more in 10 of its last 12 games. Rashad Whack has led the way with a team-high 14 points with Sam Prescott chipping-in 10.8 points and 4.1 rebounds a game.

The LUI Brooklyn Blackbirds went 6-2 down the stretch to secure the No.3 seed in the Northeast with an overall conference record of 12-6. They went 19-13 SU overall and 11-2 at home. The Blackbirds began their run to the title game with a 91-83 victory over Quinnipiac as 2 ½-point favorites before pulling off an upset of their own in a 94-82 romp over No.2 seed Wagner as six-point underdogs on the road.

Scoring has obviously not been an issue for this team with an average of 79.1 points a game, but its defense has been very suspect at times; allowing an average of 76.6 points a game on the other end of the court. The game plan in this matchup could be to simply outscore the Mountaineers behind Jamal Olasewere and CJ Garner, who have combined for 34.6 points a game this year.

These two split the season series with each winning once at home. There were no posted lines for either of those games.

Horizon League (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Wright State finished third in the Horizon League at 10-6 as part of an overall record of 19-11 SU. It went 16-11 against the spread this season and the total went OVER in five of its last eight regular season games. The Raiders eliminated Youngstown State 66-59 in its first tournament game as 3 ½-point favorites before taking out No.2 Detroit 56-54 as 7 ½-point underdogs in Saturday's semifinals.

The Raiders would never be thought of as an offensive juggernaut with an average of 61.9 points a game while shooting 43.6 percent from the field. Cole Darling was the only player scoring in double figures but he has been lost for this game with a foot injury. The real strength of this team lies in a defense that is holding opponents to 58.4 points a game.

Valparaiso won 13 of its 16 conference games this season to claim the No.1 seed for this tournament that gave it a bye all the way to the semifinals. From there, the Crusaders hammered-out a tight 70-69 victory over No.4 Green Bay as nine-point favorites after crushing the Phoenix by 19 points as two-point road underdogs in their regular season finale. Overall, they are now 25-7 SU and 17-11-1 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games.

Ryan Broekhoff is Valpo's leading scorer with 16.2 points a game while shooting 46.1 percent from the field. He also leads the team in rebounds with 7.4 a game. Overall, the Crusaders are averaging 72 points a game while shooting 48.8 percent from the floor.

Valparaiso won both meetings this season SU, but they split 1-1 ATS. It has now won the five games in this series SU, but Wright State holds the edge ATS at 3-1-1. The total went OVER in both games this year.

Summit League (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m.)

The South Dakota Jackrabbits came into this tournament as the top seed in the conference and they are now just one win away from not only winning the title, but punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. They earned the Summit League regular season title with a 13-3 record in conference play and are 24-9 SU overall. They went 14-12 ATS and the total stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games. South Dakota State hammered IUPUI 66-49 as an 18-point favorite to start this tournament off. In Monday night's semifinals, it crushed IP-Fort Wayne 72-56 as an 8 ½-point favorite.

Nate Wolters has been a force this season for the Jackrabbits with an average of 22.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists a game. They are averaging 73.9 points a game and shooting 47 percent from the field while defensively, they have held teams to an average of 66.3 points a game.

Coming out of the other side of the bracket is the No.3 North Dakota State Bison, who beat Kansas City 69-58 as a 16-point favorite in its first tournament game and then rolled over Western Illinois 55-43 as a six-point favorite to earn a spot in the championship. The Bison went 12-4 in conference play and are now 24-8 SU overall. They are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games but still over .500 ATS overall at 17-12. The total has now stayed UNDER in seven of their last nine games.

If North Dakota State is going to pull off the upset in this game, it will most likely be behind a defense that is holding its opponents to an average of just 55.9 points a game. Taylor Braun leads the team in scoring with 15.3 points a game, and as a whole, the Bison are averaging 67 points a game.

The Jackrabbits have gotten the best of things in this matchup recently with a 3-1 SU record in the last four meetings and a perfect 4-0 mark ATS. The only setback during this run was a late December 65-62 loss as seven-point road underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in the last three games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/12/2013 12:09 PM

Bracketology Update

March 12, 2013

As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this year will begin on Thursday, Mar. 21. The term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in any region, which is usually accompanied by a geographically-convenient sub-regional assignment.

Straight-up records, RPI, and Strength of Schedule (SOS) ratings are thru Sunday, March 10.

Hang on for the ride!

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, D.C.)

At Philadelphia...

1 Duke (SUR 27-4, RPI-1, SOS-1) vs. 16 James Madison (20-14, 188-276)...Any doubts about Duke landing on the top line were erased with that thumping win at nearby Chapel Hill on Saturday night. Even if the Blue Devils lose in the ACC Tourney at Greensboro this week, we doubt that knocks them from a number one seed. Meanwhile, James Madison makes the Dance for the first time since Lefty Driesell steered the Dukes into the tourney way back in 1994 after Monday's convincing win over Northeastern in the Colonial finale at Richmond. Now we'll see if Matt Brady's team can avoid one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games at Dayton.

8 Memphis (27-4, 16-76) vs. 9 Oregon (23-8, 54-109)...We've been trying to figure out what to do with Memphis for the last month. While we completely reject the idea of a handful of bracketologists who think the Tigers' at-large candidacy is in some jeopardy should Josh Pastner's team lose in this week's C-USA Tourney in Tulsa, we're also not sure the Selection Committee is going to reward Memphis' unbeaten mark in league play with a more-desirable seed. So, we cut the difference in half on the Tigers and put them at an eight. Dropping like a rock has been Oregon, which even with the recent return from injury of star frosh G Dominic Artis continued to sputter last week in a pair of ugly losses at Colorado and Utah. The Ducks will still make the field of 68 but could drop to a double-digit seed if ousted early in this week's Pac-12 Tourney in Las Vegas.

At Kansas City...

4 Kansas State (25-6, 20-59) vs. 13 Ohio (23-8, 74-165)...K-State could have probably sewn up a protected seed had it won at Oklahoma State last Saturday. But a share of the Big 12 regular-season title (the first such conference honors in Manhattan since Jack Hartman's days as coach in the 1970s) is probably enough to keep the Wildcats in their preferred Kansas City Sprint Center location for the sub-regionals. Meanwhile, the MAC is now a wide-open affair after Akron's pair of losses in the last ten days and suspension of key PG Alex Abreu; if Abreu gets reinstated this week, the Zips might become the favorite in the conference tourney in Cleveland, but we suspect they've blown their at-large candidacy in the process. The MAC is now likely a one-bid league regardless what happens this week in Cleveland, and defending tourney champ and Sweet 16 qualifier Ohio U (with a similar team from last year, save HC John Groce, now at Illinois, with ex-Kent State & TCU mentor Jim Christian now in charge) looks to be the favorite at The "Q" in tourney action.

5 Syracuse (23-8, 17-9) vs. 12 Ole Miss (20-7, 56-129)...We threatened last week to move Syracuse out of protected seed territory if the Orange didn't shape up; a win over DePaul didn't help much, and the optics were very bad in the thumping 61-39 loss at Georgetown, the lowest-scoring Syracuse Big East game under Jim Boeheim. Hardly the au revoir to the league that Orange fans were expecting. Now, barring a deep run in the Cuse's last-ever Big East Tourney at Madison Square Garden, Boeheim is likely in a five slot. We've also put Ole Miss into the field after its rousing road win at LSU over the weekend. Though the Rebs have taken a lot of deserved flak for their recent bad loss at Mississippi State, that's been their only defeat in their last five games, and we don't think the Selection Committee is going to completely shun the SEC. The Rebs, however, will still have to make progress to the later stages of the conference tourney this week in Nashville to further advance their candidacy.

At Auburn Hills...

2 Michigan State (23-7, 5-3) vs. 15 Vermont (21-10, 124-227)... No doubt that Michigan State lands in protected seed territory, which in the Spartans' case also means that they will get to play their sub-regionals nearby in the NBA Piston's Palace of Auburn Hills. Where, with Michigan also likely landing next week, means that a 15-seed such as Vermont can be expected to have a lot more throaty crowd support (from Wolverines' backers; as Michigan's foe will have from Spartan fans) than it would at other venues. Speaking of the Catamounts, they are poised for yet another visit to the Dance after America East Tourney results over the weekend have landed them in the title game at home against Albany, which knocked off tourney favorite Stony Brook on Sunday. The Great Danes, however, won't have the benefit of home court (which they had in the earlier rounds of the AE Tourney) in the title game, to be played Saturday morning in Burlington at Vermont's Patrick Gym.

7 Butler (24-7, 21-40) vs. 10 San Diego State (21-9, 32-25)...Butler had been sliding down the seeding scale in recent weeks, although Saturday's narrow win at Hinkle Fieldhouse over a dangerous Xavier side likely means Brad Stevens' Bulldogs can at least take their home white unis to wear in the first round of the sub-regional. Wearing their red or black road outfits will likely be Steve Fisher's SDSU, which has been losing all of its Mountain West showdown games on the road over the last month. The Aztecs, once a threat for a protected seed, have been relying too much on the talents of sr. G Jamaal Franklin and have probably slid all of the way to double-digit seed range. This SDSU edition is not as dangerous as some of Fisher's recent versions.

At Dayton...

3 Ohio State (22-7, 14-13) vs. 14 Harvard (19-9, 93-178)...Okay, Thad Matta's Buckeyes responded to our challenge last week to play their way back into a protected seed slot; a win at Indiana and a convincing home win over Illinois in the past week should be enough to put OSU into convenient Dayton (just 70 or so miles from campus in Columbus) for the sub-regionals. And just when we thought Princeton had control of the Ivy race, then thinking we might have another playoff game to look forward to vs. Harvard, as we did two years ago, the Tigers fell flat last weekend and lost at both Yale and Brown to gift the Ivy crown to Tommy Amaker's Crimson, now making a return appearance to the Dance.

6 Notre Dame (23-8, 43-67) vs. 11 Virginia (21-10, 73-125)/La Salle (21-8, 41-75)...We've projected Notre Dame outside of a protected seed for a couple of weeks, and the Irish did nothing to change our minds when hardly putting up a fight last Saturday at Louisville. We think the sixth line is a proper landing spot for Mike "Count Dracula" Brey and his troops. Meanwhile, in the mix of the at-large play-in candidates, which feature teams at the very edge of the cut line, we opt for Virginia, which kept its candidacy alive (barely so) with that gutty OT win over Maryland on Sunday, and La Salle, which is in a precarious position after getting smoked by Saint Louis over the weekend. Short of winning the A-10 Tourney, the Explorers are going to have to hope the Selection Committee really wants to dig five-deep into the A-10. As for Virginia, the Cavs are going to be touch-and-go all of the way; how much does a 4th-place finish in the ACC overcome three losses to Colonial foes (including woeful 5-25 Old Dominion) before New Year's? Regardless, La Salle and Virginia would gladly take spots in the First Four in Dayton.


At Lexington...

1 Louisville (26-5, 3-6) vs. 16 Liberty (15-20, 204-312)/Western Kentucky (19-15, 174-166)...After Kansas was knocked silly at Baylor over the weekend, we decided to temporarily move the Jayhawks off the top line and replace them with Louisville. There's a proviso for the Cards, however; they'll probably have to win the Big East Tourney to stay a number-one seed, which they would probably not keep if they lose at MSG and Georgetown wins the event, or if they lose in New York City and Kansas rebounds to win the Big 12 Tourney in Kansas City. Regardless, expect the Cards to land in a sub-regional at Lexington, where the odd sight of the 'Ville wearing home white and having lots of crowd support in usually-hostile enemy territory will require a temporary suspension of reality. What's this? Western Kentucky back in the field? Apparently, HC Ray Harper can wave the magic wand in the Sun Belt tourney, the finals in which WKU has advanced for the second straight year on his watch. Where the opponent will be Richard Pitino's Florida International, which pulled the shocker over the weekend when KO'ing heavy favorite Middle Tennessee. If the Golden Panthers are riding on cloud nine Monday in Hot Springs, they could be in trouble. So the Belt is likely involved again in a 16 vs. 16 play-in game, as will be Liberty. The 15-20 Flames, surprise winners of the Big South Tourney, enter the Dance as only the second 20-loss team to ever qualify for the NCAAs, joining Ron "Fang" Mitchell's 2007-08 Coppin State Eagles.

8 Virginia Commonwealth (24-7, 26-80) vs. 9 Oklahoma (20-10, 34-18)...After blowing a chance to tie Saint Louis for the A-10 regular-season crown when losing at Temple on Sunday, we're not compelled to move VCU any higher than the eighth line. Although "Shaka Ball" could still prove a pretty unnerving matchup for many teams. Lon Kruger's Oklahoma has had an 8 or 9 seed written on it for the last month, although last Saturday's bad loss at TCU could drop the Sooners a line or two. Still, OU appears safely into the field, which should mark a record fifth different school taken to the Dance by Kruger (alma mater Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, and UNLV prior).

At Austin...

4 Florida (24-6, 6-24) vs. 13 Valparaiso (25-7, 60-179)...Here's a chilling thought for Florida backers; the Gators are 0-5 this season in contests decided by single-digit margins, with late-game meltdowns in most of those losses similar to the cave-in at the end of last season's Elite Eight loss to Louisville. How many foes in March can Billy Donovan's team bully, anyway? Maybe in the first sub-regional game, where a likely foe is Valparasio, which is favored at home in Tuesday night's Horizon title game vs. Wright State after a wild and very narrow escape vs. UW-Green Bay in the semifinals on Saturday, courtesy Ryan Broekhoff's off-balance triple at the buzzer. Coach Bryce Drew's backslide on the sidelines was a different variation of his front-slide when beating Ole Miss with a buzzer-beater in the 1998 Dance. The Crusaders are likely very happy that Billy Donlon's Raiders took care of Detroit in the Horizon semis; the Titans beat Valpo in the title game last season and won again on the Crusader's' home floor on February 16.

5 UCLA (23-8, 31-32) vs. 12 Boise State (21-9, 38-51)...After the smoke finally cleared in the pile-up of a conference race that was the Pac-12, it was UCLA emerging from the rubble on the top spot and the pole position in this week's conference tourney in Las Vegas. Which has temporarily quieted Ben Howland's critics, who were thinking the coach's job ought to be on the line. Howland can really shut them up if the Bruins win the event this week in Las Vegas, which would give UCLA a chance at a protected seed as well. Speaking of Las Vegas, that's where Boise State will be this week in the Mountain West Tourney, where a first-round game on Thursday vs. San Diego State doesn't have quite the urgency it might have had if the Broncos lost at home in Taco Bell Arena vs. the Aztecs last Saturday. With the Mountain West jockeying for top conference RPI with the Big Ten all season, we suspect the Selection Committee will have no problem going five deep in the league. The Broncos' early-season win at Creighton is also going to be a nice chip to cash on Selection Sunday.

At Lexington...

2 Miami-Florida (24-6, 4-5) vs. 15 Iona (18-13, 109-136)...Jim Larranaga's Miami was looking at a top regional seed a few weeks ago, but that was before losses at Wake Forest and Duke and a bad home loss vs. Georgia Tech. Now a 2 or even a 3 seed appears likely. More importantly, did the Canes peak too early? Meanwhile, the Metro-Atlantic demolition derby in Springfield has two cars left running, as Iona faces Manhattan in Monday's finale. The Gaels, of course, reached the Dance as an at-large last season, and played in the finals of the CIT two years ago, so they have lots of postseason experience. But give Jaspers' HC Stave Masiello a lot of credit for keeping his troops afloat after the season-ending injury to the likely best player in the MAAC, G George Beamon. Some Manhattan trivia: the school isn't even located in the borough of its name, situated in The Bronx instead; and the nickname "Jaspers" was inspired by its own Brother Jasper, who served at the college in the late 19th century and was also the school's baseball coach, not to mention being credited by many for originating the seventh-inning stretch!

7 North Carolina (22-9, 19-7) vs. 10 Cincinnati (21-10, 48-30)...Roy Williams had steered the Tar Heels safely away from the bubble in recent weeks after his switch to a 4-G lineup, and we doubt the Chapel Hill bunch is docked for Saturday's home loss vs. Duke. As for Cincy, it has been sliding in the wrong direction since late January, and the Bearcats dodged a bullet on Saturday when escaping in OT vs. South Florida. A loss to the lowly Bulls could have put Mick "The Ghost" Cronin's team into some bubble trouble, but we think Cincy is on pretty safe ground heading into the Big East Tourney.

At Auburn Hills...

3 Michigan (25-6, 8-29) vs. 14 Davidson (24-87, 72-109)...With a chance to grab a share of the Big Ten's regular-season crown on Sunday vs. Indiana, Justin Morgan's last-second tip-in try instead rolled agonizingly around the rim and then out, condemning the Wolverines to 5th place in the loop and duties on first day conference tourney action Thursday in Chicago. Do we need to provide any more evidence how rugged the Big Ten is at the top this season? The SoCon determines its champ on Monday night, when Bob McKillop's Davidson seeks yet another Big Dance trip and is favored in the conference tourney finale at Asheville against Doug Wojcik's College of Charleston Cougars.

6 UNLV (23-8, 23-27) vs. 11 Belmont (26-6, 18-84)...So much for thinking that UNLV was going to swoop into the Dance on the wings of a 9-game win streak; another bad loss on Saturday to Fresno State (the Rebs' second of the season vs. the Bulldogs) has pretty much scotched the idea of a protected seed for the Rebs, even if they win the Mountain West Tourney (which they enter as the third seed) on their home court at the Thomas & Mack Center later this week. As for Belmont, Rick Byrd's Bruins spared the Selection Committee some angst on Saturday by avoiding an upset bid by Isaiah Canaan and Murray State in a pulsating overtime OVC Tourney finale at the old Nashville Auditorium. To the relief of bubble teams across the country, the OVC will only be a one-bid league in the Dance.


At Dayton...

1 Indiana (26-5, 9-11) vs. 16 Texas Southern (17-14, 183-269)/Long Island (19-13, 185-285)...After winning the Big Ten title outright thanks to that white knuckler vs. Michigan on Sunday, Indiana looks a good bet for a top seed and a sub-regional assignment to Dayton, an easy drive for most Hoosier followers, but also the scene of some bad memories for IU old-timers who might recall Bob Knight's great and then-unbeaten 1974-75 team losing 92-90 in the regional finals at a then-new UD Arena against Joe B. Hall's Kentucky Wildcats. Despite their likely top seed, these Hoosiers don't look unbeatable. They'll likely face a winner of the other 16 vs. 16 play-in; we're projecting one of those to be the champ of the SWAC, which conducts its tourney in Garland, TX this week. Houston-based Texas Southern closed with a rush to nip Baton Rouge-based Southern U at the wire to win the regular-season crown, but note several upsets in past SWAC shindigs. As for Long Island, the Claire, Blackbirds, have qualified for the NEC finale against upstart Mount Saint Mary's, alma mater of Fred "Mad Dog" Carter. LIU hosts the finale on Tuesday night, but whoever wins is likely ticketed for a play-in game.

8 Cal (20-10, 49-33) vs. 9 Missouri (22-9, 32-49)...Cal's seven-game win streak ended with a thud last Wednesday vs. Stanford, but the Golden Bears had done more than enough in the previous month (including wins vs. all of the other Pac-12 top contenders) to safely qualify for the Dance. So has Missouri, although the Tigers' profile has taken some hits due to several losses on the SEC trail, including last Saturday at Tennessee. No matter, Mizzou looks to be a pretty menacing nine seed that will not be outclassed should it advance and have to face a one seed.

At Austin...

4 Oklahoma State (23-7, 22-45) vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (26-3, 63-309)...Ok State's protected seed candidacy received a huge boost in Saturday's home win over Kansas State in a Big 12 showdown; now we think the Cowboys are a very good bet to land in Austin, their desired sub-regional location. As it would be for Nacogdoches-based Stephen F. Austin and its mustachioed coach, Danny Kapar, whose Lumberjacks rank first nationally in scoring defense at 50.1 ppg and will be favored in this week's Southland Tourney in the Houston suburb of Katy. Don't sleep on SFA, which won at Oklahoma in December and impressively at Big West leader Long Beach State in the BracketBusters a few weeks ago, and might even have a longshot at-large chance should it lose in the finale of the Southland event.

5 Saint Louis (24-6, 27-68) vs. 12 Tennessee (19-11, 55-41)... Interestingly, we weren't even putting the Billikens into our field of 68 until mid-February. But a recent 11-game SU win streak and an A-10 regular-season crown have SLU on the cusp of a protected seed. We're also in support of Jim Crews for national Coach of the Year. Another stretch-runner, Tennessee, has done enough in our book to qualify as an at-large, especially after Saturday's rousing home win over Missouri. But, then again, we seem to have a bit more respect for the SEC than do Andy Katz and other "insiders" who tend to view the field through Big Ten and Big East-tinted glasses. Would anyone take Minnesota or Cincinnati against the red-hot Vols right now? To be safe, Cuonzo Martin's side should avoid an early exit in this week's SEC Tourney at Nashville, where UT will be well-supported.

At Philadelphia...

2 Georgetown (24-5, 9-20) vs. 15 Florida Gulf Coast (24-10, 91-201)...Last Wednesday's loss at Villanova would eventually cost the Hoyas the outright Big East regular-season crown, but JT III's troops nonetheless enter conference tourney week as one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 12 of their last 13. Winning the Big East Tourney would also give G'town a legit shot at a top regional seed. Expect to hear some chatter regarding Fort Meyers-based Florida Gulf Coast, which has qualified for the Dance from the Atlantic Sun in just the school's second year of eligibility. A lot of analysts are scurrying for info on the Eagles' November upset over Jim Larranaga's Miami Hurricanes, which suggests that no one should sleep on the A-Sun champs, who also beat favored Mercer on the Bears' home floor in the conference tourney title game.

7 Wisconsin (21-10, 42-16) vs. 10 Saint Mary's (27-5, 38-113)...We invoked a "procedural one-line bump" in the Midwest after originally seeding the Badgers as a six, but we've flip-flopped Wiscy and Creighton in order to avoid a rematch of a regular-season game (of which the Selection Committee frowns upon in opening sub-regional action) in the BracketBusters between the Bluejays and Saint Mary's. The Gaels spared themselves some aggravation on Selection Sunday by avoiding a serious upset bid on Saturday night by the San Diego Toreros in the WCC Tourney semifinals at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas. But having dodged that bullet, the Gaels can now take a swing at Gonzaga in Monday's final, knowing that their ticket to the Dance is almost assuredly punched. Whatever happens on Monday, the Zags will still be the only team to have beaten SMC since before Christmas (that Gaels' loss was against Northern Iowa on Dec. 23).

At Salt Lake City...

3 New Mexico (26-5, 2-4) vs. 14 Montana (23-6, 89-266)...Despite Saturday's wild one-point loss at Air Force, New Mexico looks in solid protected seed territory with those single-digit RPI and SOS numbers. And, as the regular-season champ of the well-regarded Mountain West this season, we think the Lobos are safe and probably bound for preferred Salt Lake City (or perhaps San Jose) for sub-regional action no matter what happens in the MW Tourney this week in Las Vegas. The Huntsman Center would also be the preferred destination for Montana, which will host the Big Sky Tourney this week. The Grizzlies got some good news when star G Will Cherry returned to active duty last weekend (and scored 14 points) vs. Northern Arizona, but they're still minus key F Mathias Ward, out with a foot injury. A rubber match vs. dangerous Sky runner-up Weber State in the conference title game on Saturday appears very likely.

6 Creighton (27-7, 29-89) vs. 11 Villanova (19-12, 52-23)...If Top-15 wins count for anything (and all indications are that they indeed count a lot) with the Selection Committee, then Villanova is safely into the field of 68 regardless what happens in this week's Big East Tourney. Jay Wright might not believe as much, but the list of Wildcats' victims (Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown) is long and distinguished, and last Wednesday's win over the Hoyas should have sealed the invitation for ‘Nova. Creighton's seeding prospects were strengthened by last weekend's exciting win in Arch Madness to claim the Missouri Valley Tourney crown in St. Louis.


At San Jose...

1 Gonzaga (30-2, 11-87) vs. 16 Norfolk State (21-10, 166-331)...We can't be sure about stuffiness (which has surfaced in the past) on the Selection Committee regarding possible disrespect for the WCC that might deny Gonzaga a top regional seed as long as the Zags stay atop the polls and, of course, beat Saint Mary's in the conference tourney finale on Monday night in Las Vegas. But the WCC isn't looked down upon as much as some analysts believe, and if the Zags hold serve, we expect they're on the top line in the West. Results elsewhere in conference tourney action might be enough to allow Norfolk State, which was unbeaten in the MEAC during the regular season, to escape a 16 vs. 16 play-in game in Dayton. Remember, these guys KO'd Missouri in a memorable 2 vs. 15 sub-regional upset last season. First of all, however, the Spartans need to take care of business in the conference tourney this week at the hometown Norfolk Scope, once upon a time one of the Commonwealth home courts of the old ABA Virginia Squires and Julius Erving in the early '70s.

8 Wichita State (26-8, 36-95) vs. 9 Illinois (21-11, 40-12)...We really think there was a time last month when Illinois would probably have been out of the tournament. But the Illini recovered with some big wins down the stretch, and even road losses last week vs. Iowa and Ohio State are not going to be enough to put the Fighting Illini in danger. Wichita could have probably escaped the 8-9 whirlpool had it managed to beat Creighton in an exciting Arch Madness MVC Tourney finale on Sunday in St. Louis, but as mentioned at the outset of this preview, we don't think the 8-9 is likely to be as dreaded this season as in years past. As an aside, a lot of bubble teams around the country were thrilled that the Arch Madness finale came down to Wichita and Creighton, whose tickets to the Dance were already punched; a lot of insiders expected a "bubble thief" like Northern Iowa or Illinois State to emerge in St. Louis.

At Salt Lake City...

4 Arizona (24-6, 13-28) vs. 13 Denver (21-8, 58-130)...We reluctantly put the Wildcats back into protected seed territory, with this caveat; U of A must advance to at least the Pac-12 title game this week in Las Vegas to stay on the fourth line. Otherwise, if UCLA or another top contender wins at the MGM Grand Garden, the Cats likely drop to a five seed. Meanwhile, look out for Denver, the hottest team west of the Mississippi and which collared La Tech atop the WAC standings with a brutal beatdown of the Bulldogs last Saturday at Magness Arena. Joe Scott's Pioneers, who also opened some eyes with a BracketBuster win at Northern Iowa a few weeks ago, are now the likely favorite in this week's WAC Tourney at the Orleans Hotel Arena in Las Vegas. We can also forget the WAC as a possible two-bid league after top at-large candidate La Tech lost at both Denver and at New Mexico State in Las Cruces last week.

5 Pittsburgh (24-7, 39-70) vs. 12 Minnesota (20-11, 24-2)/Middle Tennessee (28-5, 25-128)...Pitt has been lurking on the edge of protected seed territory for the last two months. But we think the Panthers instead land on the five line unless they win the Big East Tourney, while the rumor mill begins to whirr regarding HC Jamie Dixon's possible interest in the opening at Southern Cal. Stay tuned. We keep Minnesota in the field on strictly procedural grounds because of the Gophers' solid RPI and SOS numbers, but we're also doing so because we believe the Selection Committee will do, too. We're not sure Minny deserves it, not with a 5-10 record its last 15 games (heck, that's half the season), and now eight straight losses on the road, capped by setbacks at second-division Big Ten sides Nebraska and Purdue last week. Apparently the Gophers are getting a lot of credit for their non-conference schedule and facing Duke and losing to the Blue Devils in the Bahamas back in Thanksgiving week. As for Kermit Davis' MTSU, it has flopped in the Sun Belt Tourney for the second straight year, though this time the Blue Raiders have a more-substantial at-large case partly due to their mid twenties RPI. For the moment, we have them in our field, but expect MTSU to be a hot topic of discussion all of the way through Selection Sunday.

At Kansas City...

2 Kansas (26-5, 7-20) vs. 15 Long Beach State (18-12, 111-137)...It probably matters little to Kansas if it enters the Dance as a 1 or 2 seed; what concerns HC Bill Self more than anything was its sloppy play last Saturday at Baylor that has prompted us to demote the Jayhawks a line. But KU is still almost assuredly bound for the Kansas City sub-regional, which has been its target all season. Time for the Jayhawks to play their way back onto the top line by winning the Big 12 Tourney this week at the same Sprint Center venue. Big West leader Long Beach State is hardly going to be a convincing favorite in the conference tourney this week at the Anaheim Honda Center, especially after recent losses at nearby UC Irvine and last Saturday at Stockton vs. UOP, sandwiched around a skin-of-the-teeth one-point escape at UC Davis. The Beach or any winner of the Big West Tourney could easily slide to the 16 line as well.

7 NC State (22-9, 28-35) vs. 10 Colorado (20-10, 37-18)...After advancing to the Sweet 16 last season, returning much of the same team and adding some high-profile freshmen, Mark Gottfried's NC State has had more flat spots (such as last Saturday at Florida State) than most would have expected this term. But the Wolfpack, VCU, and perhaps Missouri would seem to be the 7 to 9-seeded teams that most of the big boys are going to want to avoid if at all possible. Colorado has not demonstrated enough consistency to suggest it is capable of a deep run in March, especially since it has managed to split most of its weekend sets in the Pac-12 over the last half of the season. Solid RPI and SOS numbers also indicate that the Buffs aren't going to have to do much sweating on Selection Sunday. Check status of rebound machine F Andre Roberson.

At San Jose...

3 Marquette (23-7, 12-10) vs. 14 South Dakota State (23-9, 76-195)...Although flying under the national radar for much of the season, Buzz Williams has piloted Marquette to the same altitude it reached a year ago when the graduated Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom were the stars of the team. No surprise if the Buzz-ster gets the Golden Eagles back to the Sweet 16, which they also reached a year ago. Although an opening matchup vs. Nate "53-point" Wolters and South Dakota State, looking for a return trip to the Dance, could be a bit tricky. The Jackrabbits continue to advance in the Summit League Tourney, which runs through Tuesday in Sioux Falls.

6 Colorado State (24-7, 15-31) vs. 11 Temple (23-8, 44-71)...Results over the weekend landed CSU alone in second place in the well-regarded Mountain West, and the Rams could make a case for a protected seed by winning the conference tourney in Las Vegas this weekend. Of more immediate concern to HC Larry Eustachy, however, is getting key sr. G Dorian Green healthy after he twisted his ankle on Saturday vs. Nevada; the Rams' offense slowed to a crawl vs. the Wolf Pack with Green sidelined. Getting Green healthy for the Dance is more important than having him on the court in Las Vegas later this week. As for Temple, we think Fran Dunphy's side might have punched its ticket with Sunday's rousing home win over VCU. Along with December victories over Villanova and Syracuse, the Owls' at-large case is strong enough to make Dunphy 6-for-6 in qualifying for the Dance since moving from Penn and taking over the Temple operation from John Chaney in the 2007-08 season.

Top four seeds: Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Gonzaga.

Last four in: La Salle, Virginia, Minnesota, Middle Tennessee.

Last four out: Kentucky, Iowa State, Alabama, Baylor.

Next four out: Iowa, Southern Miss, Akron, Maryland.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/12/2013 12:20 PM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Updated odds to win next year's Super Bowl........

New England Patriots +$600
San Francisco 49ers +$675
Denver Broncos +$775
Seattle Seahawks +$900
Green Bay Packers +$1050
Houston Texans $1300


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but...........

13) Three weeks ago, if I had told you that Michigan, NC State and Butler would all miss out on byes in their leagues, you’d have called me nuts, but it happened. At one point, I thought Michigan was best team in the country, but now they’re the #5 seed in the Big Dozen. Go figure.

12) Good news: my alma mater Albany is playing on ESPN Saturday morning at Vermont in the America East title game.

Bad news: Vermont clocked them twice this season, 70-45 and 50-43. Great Danes’ coach Will Brown is a good guy and we wish him well.

11) Pet peeve: The term “student-athlete”. This annoying phrase is most always spoken by bureaucrats who makes hundreds and thousands of dollars off of kids, who are way more athletes than students, though many are both. Just call them “kids” or “athletes” or “players” or more accurately “athlete-students”.

10) UTSA-San Jose State are playing in first round of WAC tournament this week in Las Vegas; they were supposed to play last weekend in San Jose, but game got rained out because the roof in San Jose leaks and it was raining out-- since both teams are awful, they didn’t bother rescheduling it.

9) Over last two years, Western Kentucky is 17-19 in Sun Belt regular season games, 8-0 in conference tournament games- they beat Mississippi Valley State by a point in a First Four game in Dayton LY, then got beat by Kentucky by 15 in the next round. They could be going back to Dayton.

8) I was looking at a list of free agents for my fantasy baseball league (16-team keeper league, 25-man rosters) and one set of stats from last year stood out to me: Chipper Jones, but obviously he is retired.

Have to keep on my toes in case the Bronx Bombers try to weasel in and get him to unretire-- his initial response was no, and Bronx is apparently trying to sign Derrek Lee now.

7) So I’m watching the Dodger-Rockies game Sunday and Colorado brings in a pitcher named Parker Frazier, whose dad George happens to be Rockies’ TV analyst. Tough gig for George when his kid gives up two runs on his first three pitches. Thought he might make a joke, but he just said, “I’m not going to lie to you, its tough seeing your kid give up a home run.”

6) Score a victory for common sense; New York Supreme Court Judge Milton Tingling overturned the un-American ban on 20+-ounce sodas put in by New York City's billionaire Mayor Bloomberg. When you start to restrict the civil liberties of people that much, where do you draw the line?

5) Tough day for my Rams; Seahawks traded for Percy Harvin, 49ers got Anquan Boldin from Baltimore, and my Rams, who desperately need any WR who can get open and catch the ball? Nothing yet.

Rams have two first round draft picks, so they'll make their moves, but the competition in the NFC West got stronger Monday.

4) Weird story about Miami Hurricanes’ basketball star Shane Larkin, whose dad is baseball Hall of Famer Barry Larkin.

When was a little kid, Shane went to baseball practice and tried to bat like Tony Perez, another former Reds’ great. Whatever genius he had for a coach ripped young Larkin, saying whoever taught him to hit didn’t know what he was talking about. Um, OK.....

Shane went home in tears, and both elder and younger Larkin claim that to this day, Shane has never picked up a bat since then.

Miami hoop coach Jim Larranaga probably likes that story.

3) Not sure this is good news, but when David DeJesus won Cubs’ bunting tournament at spring training last week, guy named Nate Halm finished second. Don’t pick Halm up for your fantasy team; he’s an assistant in the Cubs’ video department who once played college ball at Miami, OH.

Maybe the Cubs should just play for big innings this year.

2) Bizarre graphic of the year: Oakland scored the first hoop in its game against Fort Wayne Sunday night; a small graphic appears on the bottom of the screen: “Oakland is 9-3 when it scores first.”

Now, kudos to a dedicated soul who researched that tidbit, but its basketball people, who cares?!?!?! When does scoring first matter in basketball? Not since the shot clock came in. Yikes.

1) My advice to any college basketball teams who aren’t in the top 25; don’t assume you have an NCAA bid locked up. Win as many games as you can. Take nothing for granted. Play with a sense of urgency.

Some of the longest days of your life are the days between losing in the conference tournament and waiting to see if you got an at-large bid. No one is going to be listening to the teams who are wailing Sunday night when they’re a top seed in the NIT instead of one of the 68 happy teams in the country. Its very simple: keep winning, and you’ll wind up grinning.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31754 Followers:37
03/12/2013 12:22 PM

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

Oklahoma State is going dancing regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament. The Cowboys, who earned a No. 3 seed in the conference postseason, went 23-7 SU and 15-12-2 ATS with a big win over Kansas State to close the schedule. Those two Big 12 rivals, who split their meetings this season, are slotted for a rubber match in the semifinals of the conference tournament.

But before the Pokes start sizing up the Wildcats, they have to get past pesky Baylor in Kansas City Thursday. The Bears are still battling for their NCAA lives and scored a massive win over Kansas in the season finale. Baylor has given Oklahoma State problems all year. It defeated the Cowboys 64-54 as a 4.5-point home favorite on Jan. 21 and lost 69-67 to OSU in overtime as a 6.5-point road underdog on Feb. 6.

Letdown spot

The Dallas Mavericks are hanging on for dear life in the Western Conference. After sliding back to 10th in the standings, and out of the playoff picture, the Mavericks have dusted themselves off with three straight wins heading into a busy slate of games this week, highlighted by Thursday’s showdown in San Antonio.

A win over the conference-leading Spurs would be a major boost to Dallas’ postseason hopes heading into the home stretch of the schedule. The Mavericks follow that high-pressure situation in San Antonio with a home date against the Cleveland Cavaliers Friday – a game that has both letdown and lookahead potential. Dallas hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday.

Schedule spot

The Boston Bruins have a busy schedule this week, starting in Canada’s capital Monday night. The Bruins open a stretch of five games in seven days on the road versus the Ottawa Senators, then travel to the Steel City to play the Pittsburgh Penguins Tuesday.

Boston is back home for two more games, versus the Florida Panthers Thursday and Washington Capitals Saturday, before traveling back to Pittsburgh for another road contests versus Sidney Crosby and the Pens Sunday. Looking beyond that seven-day slate, the Bruins play six of their next eight away from Beantown, starting Monday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: